Match Info

AFC Champions League 2 - Round 3

Date: 23 October 2025, Thursday

Location: Rizal Memorial Stadium (Manila)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	Azam Sports 3
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 4, TOD
China	iQIYI, QQ Sports, ZhiBo8
Croatia	SportKlub 6
India	FanCode, FanCode
Russia	TV Start, TV Start Triumph
Slovenia	SportKlub 5
Turkey	Spor Smart 2
World	Sport 2 Baltic


	Kaya		Pathum United

	1	X	2
				Watch
	6.5	4.35	1.41
	6.77	4.51	1.39
	12.37	7.38	1.16	Watch
	6.62	4.38	1.44	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	8.07 ↑ (4.51)	5.16 ↑ (3.29)	1.35 ↓ (1.75)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 7.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Kaya
11.7%

Draw
18.3%

Pathum United
70%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

20.2%

27.7%

52.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

19.7%

27.1%

53.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Kaya has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Kaya's form might have worsened.

Pathum United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+17.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Pathum United's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Kaya than the current prediction. (+8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Kaya, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Pathum United than the current prediction. (-16.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Pathum United, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	0%	100%

Kaya - Pathum United Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Pathum United (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1 - Pathum United (1.67) (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +1.5 - Kaya (1.59) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Pathum United will win (7 of 7 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Kaya (votes: 1 - 16.7%). Pathum United (votes: 5 - 83.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
98. Cortez A. (G) 12. Diano M. 88. Yamazaki K. 15. Casambre M. 32. Ravn M. 10. Melliza J. (C) 4. Muens G. 25. Esso E. 7. Bedic J. 20. Daniels K. 5. Ott Mi.	1. Bogdanovic S. (G) 81. Choolthong W. 15. Drincic M. 16. Sandokhadze N. 69. N'Diaye S. 33. Sangvilay P. 6. Yooyen S. (C) 5. Kaman K. 17. Notsuda G. 23. Emaviwe J. 8. Panya E.
Substitutes
8. Angeles M. 22. Arboleda F. 24. Basindanan S. 39. Bugas P. 30. del Rosario L. 40. Deyto P. (G) 16. Lim Bata N. A. (G) 44. Menzi A. 77. Rey G. 23. Rota S. 6. Zambrano B.	89. Buaphan C. 14. Doi T. 93. Dorkmaikaew P. (G) 10. Lopez J. 95. Matheus Fornazari 2. Nonthasila S. 21. Tiatrakul S. 4. Tongkiri C.
Coaches
Hoshide Y.	Vujovic V.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
10', 0 - 1, Emaviwe J. ⚽, Choolthong W. (A),
15', Casambre M. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Bedic J. ↓, Rey G. ↑,
46', Muens G. ↓, Menzi A. ↑,
62', Panya E. ↓, Lopez J. ↑,
62', Yooyen S. ↓, Tongkiri C. ↑,
67', Emaviwe J. ↓, Doi T. ↑,
70', 0 - 2, Doi T. ⚽, Lopez J. (A),
73', Notsuda G. ↓, Tiatrakul S. ↑,
74', Sangvilay P. ↓, Nonthasila S. ↑,
79', Ravn M. ↓, Rota S. ↑,
79', Daniels K. ↓, Basindanan S. ↑,
85', Basindanan S. 🟨,

Preview

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

In this match, Pathum United is the undisputed favorite.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Kaya won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 1:5. (average 0.5:2.5).

Including home match between the teams, Kaya won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Kaya FC
Philippines PFL
18.10.25	Stallion - Kaya	0:1 ✺
AFC Champions League 2
02.10.25	Pohang Steelers - Kaya	2:0 ✺
Philippines PFL
28.09.25	Kaya - Cebu FC	3:0 ✺
21.09.25	Kaya - Mendiola	8:0 ✺
AFC Champions League 2
18.09.25	Kaya - Tampines Rovers	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.8 WLWWL
- BG Pathum United
Thai League 1
18.10.25	Pathum United - Ayutthaya United	1:0 ✺
05.10.25	Buriram United - Pathum United	2:2 ✺
AFC Champions League 2
02.10.25	Tampines Rovers - Pathum United	2:1 ✺
Thai League 1
28.09.25	Pathum United - Thai Port	2:0 ✺
ASEAN Club Championship
24.09.25	Pathum United - Buriram United	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.9 WTLWT

Latest Head to Head

AFC Champions League
08.07.21	Kaya - Pathum United	0:1
26.06.21	Pathum United - Kaya	4:1

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