Match Info

Challenge Cup - Round 5

Date: 26 September 2026, Saturday

Location: New Central Park (Kelty)


	Kelty Hearts		Montrose

	1	X	2
	4.75	4.2	1.5
	2.95	3.60	1.95
	4.8	4.4	1.52
	4.51	4.97	1.56
	3.58	4.38	1.78	Watch
	4.45	4.9	1.47
	4.9	4.33	1.55
	4.6	4.3	1.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.32 ↑ (4.05)	4.39 ↑ (4.35)	1.6 ↑ (1.58)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 6.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Kelty Hearts
21.4%

Draw
21.1%

Montrose
57.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

22.3%

20.8%

57%

Our Initial ML Estimation

21.7%

20.3%

58.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Kelty Hearts has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.9%)

Montrose has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Kelty Hearts than the current prediction. (+0.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Montrose than the current prediction. (+0.9%)

Kelty Hearts - Montrose Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
25', 0 - 1, Loudon E. ⚽, Oliver G. (A),
44', 1 - 1, Cunningham R. ⚽, Walker G. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
77', 2 - 1, Walker G. ⚽, Hislop J. (A),

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Kelty Hearts won 2.

In recent outings, Kelty Hearts has recorded mixed results (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

Montrose shows confident form ahead of this contest (last 5 matches: 4 wins).

A closely fought contest is anticipated, with Montrose holding a narrow advantage.

In the last 19 head-to-head meetings, Kelty Hearts has recorded 4 wins, 7 draws, and 8 losses, with a goal aggregate of 19:29 (averaging 1:1.5 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Kelty Hearts against this opponent, the record stands at 1 win, 3 draws, and 6 losses, with 6:15 goals (averaging 0.6:1.5 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
14	Montrose	5	3	0	2	11:7	4	9
17	Kelty Hearts	5	3	0	2	14:13	1	9

Last Results with these Odds

Kelty Hearts - the odds 4.05 are the expected chance of winning is 22.26%, but this team recently wins 11% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Kelty Hearts
Scottish Challenge Cup
22.09.26	Kelty Hearts - Hearts B	3:5 ✺
Scottish League Two
19.09.26	Kelty Hearts - Edinburgh City	1:3 ✺
12.09.26	Clyde - Kelty Hearts	4:1 ✺
Scottish Challenge Cup
08.09.26	Cumbernauld Colts - Kelty Hearts	0:3 ✺
Scottish League Two
05.09.26	Kelty Hearts - Annan Athletic	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.6 LLLWW
- Montrose FC
Scottish Challenge Cup
22.09.26	Formartine United - Montrose	3:2 ✺
Scottish League One
19.09.26	East Fife - Montrose	1:2 ✺
12.09.26	Montrose - Cove Rangers	2:1 ✺
Scottish Challenge Cup
08.09.26	Montrose - Dundee 2	3:2 ✺
Scottish League One
05.09.26	Peterhead - Montrose	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.2 LWWWW

Latest Head to Head

Scottish League One
11.04.26	Kelty Hearts - Montrose	3:1
03.03.26	Montrose - Kelty Hearts	1:1
06.12.25	Kelty Hearts - Montrose	0:3
09.08.25	Montrose - Kelty Hearts	1:2
08.03.25	Kelty Hearts - Montrose	0:0
04.01.25	Montrose - Kelty Hearts	0:0
19.10.24	Kelty Hearts - Montrose	0:2

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