Match Info

Super Lig - Round 14

Date: 28 November 2025, Friday

Location: Yıldız Entegre Kocaeli Stadium (Izmit)

Referee: Cakir O. (Tur)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	DStv Now, SupeSport ESPN 1
Argentina	Disney+
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 2, TOD
Brazil	Disney+
Canada	beIN Connect
Kazakhstan	Sport+
Kenya	Gotv
Mexico	Disney+
Nigeria	SupeSport ESPN 1
North-central-america	Disney+ Caribbean
Peru	Disney+
Serbia	Arena Sport 6
Slovenia	SportKlub 2
South-africa	SupeSport ESPN
Turkey	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	beIN Connect, Fanatiz
Venezuela	Disney+


	Kocaelispor		Gençlerbirliği

	1	X	2
	1.86	3.4	4	Watch
	1.92	3.33	4.1
	1.97	3.36	4.34
	2.12	3.32	3.49	Watch
	1.99	3.43	4.21	Watch
	1.93	3.33	3.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.97 ↓ (2.18)	3.36 ↓ (3.37)	3.99 ↑ (3.62)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Kocaelispor
48.1%

Draw
28.1%

Gençlerbirliği
23.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44.5%

28.8%

26.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.8%

29.3%

27.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Kocaelispor has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.6%)

Gençlerbirliği has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Kocaelispor than the current prediction. (-4.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Gençlerbirliği than the current prediction. (+3.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
78.6%	14.3%	7.1%

Kocaelispor - Gençlerbirliği Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 10 Selected Experts predict this event. Kocaelispor (votes: 7 - 70%). Tie (votes: 3 - 30%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.75 - Kocaelispor (1.94) (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Users Predictions: Kocaelispor will win (22 of 26 users predict this - 84.62%).
Confidence interval (95%): 70.75% – 98.49%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 13 Selected Experts predict this event. Kocaelispor (votes: 10 - 76.9%). Tie (votes: 3 - 23.1%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Jovanovic A. (G) 22. Oguz A. (C) 6. Smolcic H. 2. Dijksteel A. 21. Haidara M. 14. Show 10. Linetty K. 7. Agyei D. 75. Bingol T. 17. Churlinov D. 19. Dursun S.	24. Velho R. (G) 13. Pereira P. 6. Goutas D. (C) 4. Zuzek Z. 23. Hanousek M. 15. Dele-Bashiru T. 8. Onur S. 21. Demir D. 10. Mimaroglu M. 70. Tongya F. 29. Niang M.
Substitutes
3. Cinan M. 35. Degirmenci G. (G) 18. Gedik F. 8. Keita H. 70. Keles C. 98. Nonge J. 11. Sagat A. 15. Serbest T. 34. Syrota O. 23. Yalcin S.	16. Ayaz Ozcan F. 17. Csoboth K. 77. Dursun A. 18. Erenturk E. (G) 11. Gurpuz G. 22. Koita S. 7. Onyekuru H. 90. Osmanoglu S. 88. Uzum F. 53. Varesanovic D.
Coaches
Inan S.	Demirel V.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
24', 1 - 0, Dursun S. ⚽, Oguz A. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
60', Demir D. ↓, Koita S. ↑,
60', Mimaroglu M. ↓, Onyekuru H. ↑,
69', Onur S. ↓, Varesanovic D. ↑,
84', Churlinov D. ↓, Keles C. ↑,
84', Linetty K. ↓, Keita H. ↑,
88', Tongya F. ↓, Csoboth K. ↑,
90+2', Agyei D. ↓, Syrota O. ↑,

Preview

A meeting between a mid-table team and the outsider will take place in this match (ranked 10 and 15).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Kocaelispor won 1.

Kocaelispor is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 3 wins).

In recent matches, Gençlerbirliği has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

In this match, Kocaelispor is seen as the favorite.

There will not play in Kocaelispor: Balogh B. (Yellow Cards) Petkovic B. (Injury) Rivas R. (Injury) Wieteska M. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Gençlerbirliği: Akkan G. (Injury) Etebo P. (Muscle Injury) Kemaloglu E. (Knee Injury) Kyabou M. (Knee Injury) Sahindere A. (Knee Injury) Thalisson Kelven (Red Card) Unal E. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Gençlerbirliği: Ulgun O. (Injury)

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Kocaelispor won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 6:9. (average 1:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Kocaelispor won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 5:5. (average 1.7:1.7).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Kocaelispor
Turkish Super League
23.11.25	Göztepe - Kocaelispor	0:0 ✺
09.11.25	Kocaelispor - Galatasaray	1:0 ✺
31.10.25	İstanbul Başakşehir - Kocaelispor	1:0 ✺
25.10.25	Kocaelispor - Alanyaspor	2:0 ✺
18.10.25	Konyaspor - Kocaelispor	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 29 TWLWW
- Gençlerbirliği
Turkish Super League
22.11.25	Galatasaray - Gençlerbirliği	3:2 ✺
07.11.25	Gençlerbirliği - İstanbul Başakşehir	2:1 ✺
01.11.25	Göztepe - Gençlerbirliği	1:0 ✺
26.10.25	Gençlerbirliği - Konyaspor	1:2 ✺
18.10.25	Beşiktaş - Gençlerbirliği	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 25.3 LWLLW

Latest Head to Head

Turkish First League
20.01.25	Gençlerbirliği - Kocaelispor	1:0
10.08.24	Kocaelispor - Gençlerbirliği	2:1
15.03.24	Gençlerbirliği - Kocaelispor	2:0
28.10.23	Kocaelispor - Gençlerbirliği	2:2
20.03.22	Gençlerbirliği - Kocaelispor	1:1
24.10.21	Kocaelispor - Gençlerbirliği	1:2

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