Match Info

Ekstraklasa - Round 22

Date: 22 February 2026, Sunday

Location: Exbud Arena (Kielce)

Referee: Lasyk P. (Pol)

Where to Watch on TV:


Canada	beIN Connect
Croatia	Arena Sport 8, MAXtv To Go
Finland	Veikkaus TV
Poland	CANAL+ 4K Ultra, CANAL+ Premium, CANAL+ Sport 3, Ekstraklasa TV
Usa	beIN Connect, Fanatiz, Tubi TV


	Korona Kielce		Lech Poznań

	1	X	2
	2.75	3.5	2.25	Watch
	2.8	3.5	2.3
	2.58	3.4	2.48	Watch
	2.6	3.5	2.65
	2.7	3.52	2.55	Watch
	2.63	3.2	2.5
	2.64	3.34	2.49	Watch
	2.62	3.5	2.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.67 ↓ (3.16)	3.43 ↑ (3.06)	2.47 ↑ (2.1)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 4.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Korona Kielce
35%

Draw
27.2%

Lech Poznań
37.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

28.3%

29.2%

42.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Korona Kielce has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Korona Kielce's performance.

Lech Poznań has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	46.2%	53.8%

Korona Kielce - Lech Poznań Predictions

Users Predictions: 13 users predict this event. Lech will win (votes: 7 - 53.8%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 46.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Lech: 26.7% – 80.9%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Lech (votes: 1 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 50%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Lech (1.43) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 3 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Lech (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Dziekonski X. (G) 24. Smolarczyk B. 44. Sotiriou K. 6. Pieczek M. 71. Dlugosz W. (C) 8. Remacle M. 88. Svetlin T. 21. Ciszek K. 77. Cebula M. 70. Antonin 14. Stepinski M.	41. Mrozek B. (G) 20. Gumny R. 27. Monka W. 16. Milic A. 15. Gurgul M. 8. Gholizadeh A. 43. Kozubal A. 24. Jagiello F. 14. Bengtsson L. 9. Ishak M. (C) 99. Rodriguez P.
Substitutes
7. Blanik D. 9. Davidovic S. 86. Gustafson S. 87. Mamla R. (G) 20. Minuczyc K. 11. Nikolov V. 15. Niski N. 10. Nono 26. Popov V. 5. Resta P. 23. Rubezic S.	7. Agnero Y. 1. Andreev P. (G) 3. Douglas A. 88. Ismaheel T. 4. Moutinho J. 6. Ouma T. 77. Palma L. 2. Pereira J. 72. Skrzypczak M. 23. Thordarson G. 10. Walemark P.
Coaches
Zielinski J.	Frederiksen N.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
30', 0 - 1, Gholizadeh A. ⚽, Bengtsson L. (A),
45+1', 0 - 2, Milic A. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Jagiello F. ↓, Walemark P. ↑,
51', Smolarczyk B. 🟨,
54', 1 - 2, Stepinski M. ⚽, Dlugosz W. (A),
64', Remacle M. ↓, Gustafson S. ↑,
64', Bengtsson L. ↓, Palma L. ↑,
70', Cebula M. ↓, Niski N. ↑,
80', Gholizadeh A. ↓, Ismaheel T. ↑,
80', Rodriguez P. ↓, Ouma T. ↑,
83', Antonin ↓, Nono ↑,
86', Ouma T. 🟨,
90+6', Walemark P. ↓, Agnero Y. ↑,

Preview

This time we’ll see a clash between two mid-table teams (ranked 8 and 7).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Korona won 1.

Korona is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Lech has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Korona may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

There will not play in Korona: Resta P. (Injury)

There will not play in Lech: Gholizadeh A. (Injury) Hakans D. (Ankle Injury) Lisman K. (Inactive) Murawski R. (Surgery)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Korona won 4 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 11 matches, and goals 17:27. (average 0.9:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Korona won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 5 matches, and goals 7:12. (average 0.9:1.5).

Outrights of Polish Ekstraklasa for now

Lech Poznan: 47.5% Korona Kielce: 2.08%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Lech Poznan	9	7	1	1	21:8	13	22
7	Korona Kielce	9	4	3	2	12:10	2	15

Last Results with these Odds

Korona Kielce - the odds 3.16 are the expected chance of winning is 28.27%, but this team recently wins 11% of matches with these odds.

Lech Poznań - the odds 2.1 are the expected chance of winning is 42.54%, but this team recently wins 33% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Korona Kielce
Polish Ekstraklasa
13.02.26	Radomiak Radom - Korona Kielce	0:2 ✺
06.02.26	Korona Kielce - Zagłębie Lubin	1:2 ✺
01.02.26	Legia Warsaw - Korona Kielce	1:2 ✺
Club Friendly
23.01.26	Korona Kielce - Vojvodina	Canceled ✺
20.01.26	Korona Kielce - Dynamo Kyiv	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 21.5 WLW?T
- Lech Poznań
UEFA Europa Conference League
19.02.26	KuPS Kuopio - Lech Poznań	0:2 ✺
Polish Ekstraklasa
15.02.26	Lech Poznań - Piast Gliwice	3:0 ✺
07.02.26	Górnik Zabrze - Lech Poznań	0:1 ✺
03.02.26	Piast Gliwice - Lech Poznań	1:0 ✺
31.01.26	Lech Poznań - Lechia Gdańsk	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.6 WWWLL

Latest Head to Head

Polish Ekstraklasa
16.08.25	Lech Poznań - Korona Kielce	1:1
05.04.25	Lech Poznań - Korona Kielce	2:0
29.09.24	Korona Kielce - Lech Poznań	2:3
25.05.24	Lech Poznań - Korona Kielce	1:2
02.12.23	Korona Kielce - Lech Poznań	0:1
19.05.23	Korona Kielce - Lech Poznań	0:3
06.11.22	Lech Poznań - Korona Kielce	3:2

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