Match Info

III Liga - Group IV - Round 9

Date: 19 September 2025, Friday


	Korona Kielce 2		KSZO Ostrowiec Świętokrzyski

	1	X	2
	2.88	3.6	2.08
	2.84	3.7	2.13
	6.67	5.18	1.34	Watch
	2.84	3.64	2.12	Watch
	2.9	3.6	2.05
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.63 ↑ (3.01)	3.94 ↑ (3.53)	1.94 ↓ (2.08)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 8.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Korona Kielce 2
26.4%

Draw
24.3%

KSZO Ostrowiec Świętokrzyski
49.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

30.3%

25.8%

43.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

30%

25.5%

44.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Korona Kielce 2 has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.9%)

KSZO Ostrowiec Świętokrzyski has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting KSZO Ostrowiec Świętokrzyski's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Korona Kielce 2 than the current prediction. (+3.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for KSZO Ostrowiec Świętokrzyski than the current prediction. (-4.9%)

Korona Kielce 2 - KSZO Ostrowiec Świętokrzyski Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 2)
3', 0 - 1, Lepiarz D. ⚽,
35', 0 - 2, Belych Y. ⚽,
42', 1 - 2, Karlinski B. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)

Preview

Watch a clash between a mid-table side and a current leader (ranked 10 and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Division 2).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Korona 2 won 2.

Korona 2 has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Ostrowiec is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Ostrowiec is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Korona 2 won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 8:10. (average 1.1:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Korona 2 won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 4:6. (average 1:1.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Korona Kielce 2
Polish Division 3 - Group IV
13.09.25	Star Starachowice - Korona Kielce 2	3:2 ✺
06.09.25	Siarka Tarnobrzeg - Korona Kielce 2	3:1 ✺
31.08.25	Korona Kielce 2 - Cracovia 2	1:2 ✺
27.08.25	Sparta Kazimierza Wielka - Korona Kielce 2	2:3 ✺
24.08.25	Korona Kielce 2 - Stal Kraśnik	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.3 LLLWW
- KSZO Ostrowiec Świętokrzyski
Polish Division 3 - Group IV
13.09.25	Podlasie Biała Podlaska - KSZO Ostrowiec Świętokrzyski	1:2 ✺
07.09.25	KSZO Ostrowiec Świętokrzyski - Star Starachowice	0:0 ✺
31.08.25	Avia Świdnik - KSZO Ostrowiec Świętokrzyski	1:2 ✺
27.08.25	KSZO Ostrowiec Świętokrzyski - Czarni Połaniec	2:1 ✺
24.08.25	Naprzód Jędrzejów - KSZO Ostrowiec Świętokrzyski	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9 WTWWT

Latest Head to Head

Polish Division 3 - Group IV
17.04.25	Korona Kielce 2 - KSZO Ostrowiec Świętokrzyski	1:2
20.09.24	KSZO Ostrowiec Świętokrzyski - Korona Kielce 2	1:2
18.03.23	KSZO Ostrowiec Świętokrzyski - Korona Kielce 2	2:0
17.08.22	Korona Kielce 2 - KSZO Ostrowiec Świętokrzyski	2:1
28.04.21	Korona Kielce 2 - KSZO Ostrowiec Świętokrzyski	0:3
19.09.20	KSZO Ostrowiec Świętokrzyski - Korona Kielce 2	1:2
28.09.19	Korona Kielce 2 - KSZO Ostrowiec Świętokrzyski	1:0

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