Match Info

Tercera RFEF - Group 6 - Round 12

Date: 23 November 2025, Sunday


	La Nucía		Castellonense

	1	X	2
	2.68	2.68	2.78
	2.19	3.03	3.54
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.44 ↓ (2.62)	2.86 ↓ (2.92)	3.16 ↑ (2.58)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

La Nucía
38.1%

Draw
32.5%

Castellonense
29.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34.3%

30.8%

34.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.1%

31.5%

34.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

La Nucía has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.8%)

Castellonense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Castellonense might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for La Nucía than the current prediction. (-3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Castellonense than the current prediction. (+4.7%)

La Nucía - Castellonense Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 2)
48', 0 - 1, Murillo A. ⚽,
85', 0 - 2, Siscar C. ⚽,
90+8', 🟥,

Preview

Enjoy a meeting between a mid-ranked team and one of the leaders (ranked 10 and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Tercera RFEF ~ Group 6 (Play Offs: )).

La Nucía has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Castellonense is showing excellent form with consecutive wins (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Castellonense will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, La Nucía won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 4:3. (average 1:0.8).

Including home matches between the teams, La Nucía won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 2:3. (average 1:1.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CF La Nucía
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 6
16.11.25	Ontinyent 1931 - La Nucía	1:1 ✺
09.11.25	La Nucía - Villarreal C	1:3 ✺
02.11.25	Atlético Saguntino - La Nucía	1:1 ✺
26.10.25	Crevillente Deportivo - La Nucía	2:2 ✺
19.10.25	La Nucía - Soneja	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.8 TLTTT
- UD Castellonense
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 6
16.11.25	Castellonense - Crevillente Deportivo	2:1 ✺
09.11.25	Soneja - Castellonense	0:1 ✺
02.11.25	Castellonense - Buñol	4:1 ✺
29.10.25	Alzira - Castellonense	0:2 ✺
25.10.25	Utiel - Castellonense	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.6 WWWWW

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 6
25.05.25	La Nucía - Castellonense	1:2
17.05.25	Castellonense - La Nucía	0:0
06.04.25	Castellonense - La Nucía	0:2
24.11.24	La Nucía - Castellonense	1:1

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