Match Info

Kakkonen Group A - Losers stage

Date: 3 October 2026, Saturday

Location: Lahden kisapuisto (Lahti)

Where to Watch on TV:


Finland	Ruutu+


	Lahden Reipas		Union Plaani

	1	X	2
	2.05	3.60	2.80
	2.00	3.60	2.85
	2.04	3.76	3.16
	2.13	4.03	2.66	Watch
	1.99	3.70	3.00
	2.07	4.25	2.85
	1.63	4.1	3.85
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.99 ↑ (1.6)	3.86 ↓ (4.1)	3.02 ↓ (3.95)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.50

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lahden Reipas
46.1%

Draw
23.7%

Union Plaani
30.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

55.7%

21.7%

22.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

58%

22.6%

21.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lahden Reipas has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Lahden Reipas's form might have worsened.

Union Plaani has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Union Plaani's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lahden Reipas than the current prediction. (+11.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Lahden Reipas, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Union Plaani than the current prediction. (-8.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Union Plaani, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Lahden Reipas - Union Plaani Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Ratto V. (G) 28. Babiker A. 22. Flood P. 24. Helttunen O. 10. Kose B. (C) 21. Kuparinen E. 12. Ndabawedje E. 8. Paalanen A. 18. Saltykov T. 25. Vaisanen K. 19. Verkko M.	31. Hirvonen O. (G) 28. Abdi T. 44. Afila V. 2. Ala-Kauhaluoma L. 10. Harjula S. 77. Hassan M. 25. Hertsi L. 17. Kettunen T. 11. Kuokkanen N. 14. Kurki V. 18. Paakkanen S. (C)
Substitutes
15. Ayri H. 11. Belhout Y. 30. Haapsaari P. (G) 3. Kuusimaki L. 23. Mynttinen J. 9. Pellikka J. 16. Pellikka O. 31. Selin O. 7. Viitanen V.	37. Al Sheikh M. 12. Belabid Y. (G) 4. Karjalainen J. 9. Kivisto N. 19. Kuzniarek T. 84. Lahti R. 71. Mulari J. 29. Nykanen A. 26. Rowe H.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (3 - 0)
3', 1 - 0, Kose B. ⚽,
10', Helttunen O. ↓, Ayri H. ↑,
14', 2 - 0, Paalanen A. ⚽,
17', 3 - 0, Babiker A. ⚽,
30', Flood P. 🟨,
34', Kuparinen E. 🟨,
40', Vaisanen K. 🟨,
42', Kettunen T. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Kuokkanen N. ↓, Al Sheikh M. ↑,
60', 🟨,
61', 4 - 0, Paalanen A. ⚽,
74', Ayri H. ↓, Mynttinen J. ↑,
81', Harjula S. ↓, Kivisto N. ↑,
81', Afila V. ↓, Nykanen A. ↑,
90', Babiker A. ↓, Kuusimaki L. ↑,

Preview

Recent results have been tough for Reipas (last 5 matches: 1 win).

Union Plaani is on a roll with consecutive victories (last 5 matches: 4 wins).

Reipas is expected to hold a slight competitive edge in this match.

In the last 3 head-to-head meetings, Reipas has recorded 1 win, 0 draws, and 2 losses, with a goal aggregate of 4:4 (averaging 1.3:1.3 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Reipas against this opponent, the record stands at 1 win, 0 draws, and 0 losses, with 4:2 goals.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Lahden Reipas
Finnish Kakkonen Group A
26.09.26	Lahden Reipas - MYPA	7:1 ✺
19.09.26	Union Plaani - Lahden Reipas	1:0 ✺
12.09.26	Lahden Reipas - Puistolan Urheilijat	0:0 ✺
04.09.26	MYPA - Lahden Reipas	5:1 ✺
22.08.26	Union Plaani - Lahden Reipas	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.5 WLTLL
- Union Plaani
Finnish Kakkonen Group A
26.09.26	Puistolan Urheilijat - Union Plaani	3:3 ✺
19.09.26	Union Plaani - Lahden Reipas	1:0 ✺
12.09.26	MYPA - Union Plaani	2:3 ✺
06.09.26	Union Plaani - Puistolan Urheilijat	4:2 ✺
22.08.26	Union Plaani - Lahden Reipas	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 28.1 TWWWW

Latest Head to Head

Finnish Kakkonen Group A
19.09.26	Union Plaani - Lahden Reipas	1:0
22.08.26	Union Plaani - Lahden Reipas	1:0
13.06.26	Lahden Reipas - Union Plaani	4:2

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