Match Info

EUROPE: Conference League - Qualification - Semi-finals

Date: 15 August 2024, Thursday

Location: Inver Park (Larne)

Referee: Valikonis R. (Ltu)

Where to Watch on TV:


United-kingdom	Solidsport TV


	Larne		Ballkani

	1	X	2
	3.1	3.25	2.3	Watch
	2.9	3	2.35
	3.1	3.1	2.35	Watch
	3.2	3.12	2.31
	3.15	3.21	2.3	Watch
	3.22	3.22	2.32	Watch
	3.1	3.1	2.35
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.11 ↓ (3.37)	3.14 ↓ (3.83)	2.33 ↑ (1.95)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 5.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Larne
30.1%

Draw
29.7%

Ballkani
40.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

27.7%

24.4%

47.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

27.4%

24.7%

48.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Larne has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.4%)

Ballkani has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Ballkani might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Larne than the current prediction. (-2.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ballkani than the current prediction. (+8.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Ballkani could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
64.3%	14.3%	21.4%

Larne - Ballkani Predictions

Users Predictions: 26 users predict this event. Larne will win (votes: 17 - 65.4%). Ballkani will win (votes: 5 - 19.2%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 15.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Larne: 47.1% – 83.7%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Ferguson R. (G) 23. Cosgrove T. 18. Bolger C. (C) 4. Donnelly A. 3. Ives L. 25. Sloan D. 27. Gallagher C. 11. Graham S. 30. Lusty M. 6. Thomson J. 29. Ryan A.	1. Kolici E. (G) 20. Thaqi A. 32. Jashanica B. (C) 3. Potoku A. 14. Ismajlgeci M. 11. Hamidi W. 6. Emerllahu L. 88. Queven 2. Smajli G. 10. Kryeziu A. 9. Adetunji S.
Substitutes
5. Altintop B. 24. Brown S. 34. Devlin O. 36. Graham D. (G) 7. McKendry C. 9. O'Neill P. 8. Randall M. 26. Smith C. 2. Want S.	77. Abedini E. 22. Dulaj K. 19. Engjell A. 37. Giovanni 4. Halili G. 34. Kodra M. 92. Ljuljanovic D. (G) 13. Miftari A. (G) 5. Sinani E. 99. Tolaj B.
Coaches
Lynch T.	Daja I.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
44', Potoku A. 🟨,
45', 0 - 1, Hamidi W. (Pen),
45+1', Hamidi W. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
47', Ives L. 🟨,
63', Gallagher C. 🟨,
73', Sloan D. ↓, Randall M. ↑,
73', Lusty M. ↓, O'Neill P. ↑,
79', O'Neill P. 🟨,
84', Kryeziu A. ↓, Tolaj B. ↑,
90+2', Emerllahu L. 🟨,
Extra Time (0 - 0)
100', Randall M. 🟨,
101', Smajli G. ↓, Giovanni ↑,
110', Ives L. ↓, Want S. ↑,
120+2', Cosgrove T. 🟨,
120+2', Adetunji S. 🟨,
Penalties (4 - 1)
1, Thomson J. (Pen),
1, Hamidi W. (Pen),
2, Randall M. (Pen),
2, Engjell A. (Pen),
3, Ryan A. (Pen),
3, Dulaj K. (Pen),
4, Gallagher C. (Pen),

Preview

2nd leg. 1st leg result: 1-0.

Two teams are playing changeable.

The chances to win of two teams are almost the same in this match.

Last 3 head-to-head matches Larne won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 2-7.

Including matches at home between the teams Larne won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 1-4.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Larne FC
UEFA Europa Conference League
08.08.24	Ballkani - Larne	0:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League
17.07.24	Larne - RFS	0:4 ✺
10.07.24	RFS - Larne	3:0 ✺
Northern Irish Charity Shield
05.07.24	Larne - Cliftonville	2:1 ✺
Club Friendly
22.06.24	Stranraer - Larne	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.7 WLLWT
- KF Ballkani
UEFA Europa Conference League
08.08.24	Ballkani - Larne	0:1 ✺
30.07.24	Hamrun Spartans - Ballkani	0:2 ✺
23.07.24	Ballkani - Hamrun Spartans	0:0 ✺
UEFA Champions League
16.07.24	Ballkani - UE Santa Coloma	1:3 penalties ✺
09.07.24	UE Santa Coloma - Ballkani	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.1 LWTLW

Latest Head to Head

UEFA Europa Conference League
08.08.24	Ballkani - Larne	0:1
03.08.23	Larne - Ballkani	1:4
25.07.23	Ballkani - Larne	3:0

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