Match Info

NIFL Premiership - Round 12

Date: 16 October 2026, Friday 🏁 Finished

Location: Inver Park (Larne) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Marshall T. (Nir)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
United Kingdom	19:45	BBC iPlayer, BBC Sport, Nifl TV


	Larne		Coleraine

	1	X	2
	2.20	3.30	2.95
	2.25	3.10	2.80
	2.37	3.30	3.21
	2.32	3.18	2.93	Watch
	2.25	3.25	3.10
	2.24	3.06	3.01
	2.23	3.25	2.90
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.27 ↓ (2.33)	3.21 ↓ (3.32)	2.99 ↑ (2.81)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Larne
40.6%

Draw
28.7%

Coleraine
30.8%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

39.5%

27.7%

32.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41.1%

26.6%

31.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Larne has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.1%)

Coleraine has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Larne than the current prediction. (+0.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Coleraine than the current prediction. (+0.7%)

Larne - Coleraine Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Ferguson R. (G) 26. Bent D. 23. Cosgrove T. (C) 15. Doherty R. 4. Donnelly A. 22. McEneff J. 21. Millar L. 9. O'Neill P. 3. Ridley M. 47. Simpson J. 25. Sloan D.	12. Webb L. (G) 4. Boyle D. 11. Cooper J. 23. Doherty B. 2. Kane L. 8. Patching W. 9. Shevlin M. 5. Stewart C. 42. Thomson J. 16. Wilson A. 22. Wylie B.
Substitutes
16. Carney J. (G) 45. Gibson M. 7. McKendry C. 19. O'Hara K. 8. Randall M. 27. Sandiford G. 17. Ukek J.	18. Brooks A. 20. Devine S. 17. Henderson J. 15. Ives L. 21. McDonald R. 1. Schofield R. (G) 19. Slevin R.
Coaches
Haveron G.	Higgins R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
16', 1 - 0, Simpson J. ⚽,
23', Wilson A. 🟨,
24', Simpson J. 🟨,
42', O'Neill P. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 3)
50', 2 - 0, Simpson J. ⚽,
56', Boyle D. ↓, Ives L. ↑,
56', Kane L. ↓, McDonald R. ↑,
59', 2 - 1, Cooper J. ⚽,
60', Wylie B. 🟨,
60', 🟨,
62', Sloan D. ↓, O'Hara K. ↑,
64', Wylie B. ↓, Brooks A. ↑,
69', 2 - 2, Shevlin M. ⚽,
71', Wilson A. ↓, Slevin R. ↑,
77', 🟨,
81', 2 - 3, Cooper J. ⚽,
87', Doherty R. ↓, Gibson M. ↑,
87', O'Neill P. ↓, Ukek J. ↑,

Preview

One of the standout fixtures of the round, featuring two top-tier sides (ranked 3rd in the Promotion - NIFL Premiership (Championship Group: ) and 1st in the Promotion - NIFL Premiership (Championship Group: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Larne won 2.

Larne arrives with excellent momentum after picking up several victories (last 5 matches: 5 wins).

Coleraine shows confident form ahead of this contest (last 5 matches: 4 wins).

Coleraine may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

The probabilities of winning are closely matched between the two contenders.

In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, Larne has recorded 9 wins, 6 draws, and 5 losses, with a goal aggregate of 25:17 (averaging 1.3:0.9 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Larne against this opponent, the record stands at 7 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses, with 19:8 goals (averaging 1.9:0.8 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Coleraine	13	11	1	1	31:12	19	34
3	Larne	11	7	2	2	21:10	11	23

Last Results with these Odds

Larne - the odds 2.33 are the expected chance of winning is 39.51%, but this team recently wins 57% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Larne FC
Northern Irish Premiership
10.10.26	Crusaders - Larne	0:3 ✺
19.09.26	Carrick Rangers - Larne	2:5 ✺
15.09.26	Larne - Cliftonville	2:0 ✺
12.09.26	Portadown - Larne	0:2 ✺
08.09.26	Larne - Bangor	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.4 WWWWW
- Coleraine FC
Northern Irish Premiership
10.10.26	Coleraine - Cliftonville	1:0 ✺
04.10.26	Bangor - Coleraine	2:3 ✺
25.09.26	Coleraine - Linfield	1:3 ✺
19.09.26	Coleraine - Limavady United	1:0 ✺
15.09.26	Glentoran - Coleraine	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.2 WWLWW

Latest Head to Head

Northern Irish Premiership
15.08.26	Coleraine - Larne	0:0
Northern Irish Charity Shield
03.07.26	Larne - Coleraine	1:0 penalties
Northern Irish Premiership
07.04.26	Larne - Coleraine	1:4
Northern Irish Cup
04.04.26	Coleraine - Larne	2:1 ET
Northern Irish Premiership
02.01.26	Larne - Coleraine	3:0
25.11.25	Coleraine - Larne	1:2
10.08.25	Coleraine - Larne	1:0

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