Match Info

Champions League - Qualification - Quarter-finals

Date: 21 July 2026, Tuesday

Location: Inver Park (Larne)

Where to Watch on TV:


Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Premium 1
Israel	5 PLUS Israel
Serbia	Arena Premium 1, RTS 2
United-kingdom	Nifl TV
Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Larne		Crvena Zvezda Belgrade

	1	X	2
	12.00	6.50	1.17	Watch
	15.00	7.50	1.18
	15.00	7.50	1.14	Watch
	19.50	7.75	1.16
	11.04	5.68	1.25	Watch
	15.00	7.80	1.14
	13.00	7.42	1.19
	15.00	7.20	1.17
Avarage Now (Initially)	14.44 ↑ (5.2)	7.17 ↑ (3.86)	1.18 ↓ (1.47)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 4.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Larne
6.5%

Draw
13.2%

Crvena Zvezda Belgrade
80.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

17%

22.9%

60.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

21.1%

18.5%

48.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Larne has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Larne's form might have worsened.

Crvena Zvezda Belgrade has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+20.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Crvena Zvezda Belgrade's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Larne than the current prediction. (+14.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Larne, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Crvena Zvezda Belgrade than the current prediction. (-31.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Crvena Zvezda Belgrade, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
3.7%	14.8%	81.5%

Larne - Crvena Zvezda Belgrade Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Crvena Zvezda (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - Crvena Zvezda (1.12) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Crvena Zvezda Belgrade will win (22 of 27 users predict this - 81.48%).
Confidence interval (95%): 66.83% – 96.13%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Crvena Zvezda (votes: 4 - 80%). Tie (votes: 1 - 20%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Ferguson R. (G) 23. Cosgrove T. (C) 26. Bent D. 3. Ridley M. 4. Donnelly A. 15. Doherty R. 6. Gallagher C. 11. Graham S. 22. McEneff J. 30. Lusty M. 25. Sloan D.	1. Matheus (G) 66. Seol Young-Woo 13. Veljkovic M. 25. Erakovic S. 23. Tiknizyan N. 75. Loizou L. 15. Abu Fani M. 21. Elsnik T. 22. Kostov V. 4. Ivanic M. (C) 17. Bruno Duarte
Substitutes
31. Collett D. (G) 45. Gibson M. 36. Graham D. (G) 14. Magee B. 7. McKendry C. 19. O'Hara K. 9. O'Neill P. 47. Simpson J. 2. Wallace L.	7. Arnautovic M. 8. Balov K. 14. Bukari O. 70. Cham M. 9. Enem J. 45. Gudelj S. 77. Gutesa I. (G) 10. Katai A. 50. Radanovic S. (G) 24. Stankovic N. 27. Strika M. 30. Tebo Uchenna F.
Coaches
Haveron G.	Stankovic D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
20', Seol Young-Woo 🟨,
26', 0 - 1, Bruno Duarte (Penalty Awarded),
28', Graham S. 🟨,
34', Lusty M. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 3)
46', Lusty M. ↓, O'Hara K. ↑,
46', Loizou L. ↓, Bukari O. ↑,
55', 0 - 2, Kostov V. ⚽, Bukari O. (A),
63', Sloan D. ↓, Simpson J. ↑,
67', 0 - 3, Bruno Duarte ⚽, Abu Fani M. (A),
73', Kostov V. ↓, Cham M. ↑,
73', Bruno Duarte ↓, Enem J. ↑,
73', Ivanic M. ↓, Katai A. ↑,
76', McEneff J. ↓, O'Neill P. ↑,
76', Doherty R. ↓, Wallace L. ↑,
81', Abu Fani M. ↓, Arnautovic M. ↑,
85', 0 - 4, Cham M. ⚽, Katai A. (A),

Preview

First leg.

Larne is in fantastic form, winning most of its recent matches (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Crvena Zvezda has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

In this match, Crvena Zvezda is the undeniable favorite.

In recent times, the teams did not meet on the field.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Larne FC
UEFA Champions League
14.07.26	Larne - Tre Fiori	2:1 ✺
07.07.26	Tre Fiori - Larne	0:1 ✺
Northern Irish Charity Shield
03.07.26	Larne - Coleraine	1:0 penalties ✺
Club Friendly
29.06.26	Harland & Wolff Welders - Larne	1:2 ✺
20.06.26	Stranraer - Larne	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.5 WWWWT
- FK Crvena Zvezda Belgrade
Serbian Superliga
17.07.26	Crvena Zvezda Belgrade - Mačva Šabac	5:0 ✺
Club Friendly
12.07.26	Zenit - Crvena Zvezda Belgrade	3:1 ✺
03.07.26	Crvena Zvezda Belgrade - Blau-Weiss Linz	2:2 ✺
29.06.26	Crvena Zvezda Belgrade - Slovan Bratislava	1:1 ✺
25.06.26	Amstetten - Crvena Zvezda Belgrade	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 33.1 WLTTW

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