Match Info

Campeonato de Portugal - Promotion Group - Round 5

Date: 25 May 2025, Sunday

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Canal 11


	Leça		Paredes

	1	X	2
	2.85	3.1	2.2
	2.9	3.2	2.26
	2.81	3.25	2.2
	2.95	3.34	2.26
	2.9	3.2	2.26
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.88 ↑ (2.71)	3.22 ↑ (3)	2.24 ↑ (2.08)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 8.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Leça
31.4%

Draw
28.1%

Paredes
40.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

31.2%

28.2%

40.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

29%

26.2%

43.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Leça has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.2%)

Paredes has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Leça than the current prediction. (-2.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Paredes than the current prediction. (+3.2%)

Leça - Paredes Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
40', 1 - 0, Afonso A. ⚽,
41', 1 - 1, Santos Outeiro D. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 4)
53', 2 - 1, ⚽,
60', 2 - 2, Delcio ⚽,
65', 2 - 3, Miguel ⚽,
76', 2 - 4, Santana E. ⚽,
79', 2 - 5, Ze Thiago ⚽,
86', 🟥,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Leça won 2.

Leça is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Paredes has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 8 head-to-head matches, Leça won 4 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 8:6. (average 1:0.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Leça won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 5:1. (average 1.3:0.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Leça FC
Campeonato de Portugal - Group A
18.05.25	Marco 09 - Leça	3:2 ✺
11.05.25	Leça - Vitoria Guimarães B	1:2 ✺
04.05.25	Paredes - Leça	2:0 ✺
27.04.25	Leça - Marco 09	1:0 ✺
Campeonato de Portugal - Group B
13.04.25	Machico - Leça	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3 LLLWT
- USC Paredes
Campeonato de Portugal - Group A
18.05.25	Paredes - Vitoria Guimarães B	0:2 ✺
11.05.25	Marco 09 - Paredes	0:0 ✺
04.05.25	Paredes - Leça	2:0 ✺
27.04.25	Vitoria Guimarães B - Paredes	3:3 ✺
13.04.25	Paredes - Atlético dos Arcos	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8 LTWTT

Latest Head to Head

Campeonato de Portugal - Group A
04.05.25	Paredes - Leça	2:0
Campeonato de Portugal - Group B
01.05.22	Leça - Paredes	1:0
20.03.22	Paredes - Leça	1:0
Taça de Portugal
22.12.21	Leça - Paredes	2:1 penalties
Campeonato de Portugal - Group B
24.01.21	Leça - Paredes	0:0
04.10.20	Paredes - Leça	0:1
17.11.19	Paredes - Leça	2:2

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