Match Info

Liga 3 - Relegation Group - Round 1

Date: 14 February 2026, Saturday

Location: Municipal de Marco de Canaveses (Marco de Canaveses)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Canal 11


	Marco 09		Paredes

	1	X	2
	3.35	3	2.08
	3.84	3.2	2.09
	3.56	3.13	2.13	Watch
	3.5	2.9	2.05
	3.7	3.19	2.06
	3.6	3.1	1.96
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.59 ↑ (3.32)	3.09 ↓ (3.19)	2.06 ↓ (2.08)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 5.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Marco 09
25.6%

Draw
29.8%

Paredes
44.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

27.5%

28.6%

43.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

27.1%

28.2%

44.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Marco 09 has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.9%)

Paredes has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Marco 09 than the current prediction. (+1.5%)

The ML Model estimate for Paredes aligns with the current prediction.

Marco 09 - Paredes Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
99. Carvalho D. (G) 14. Doukoure H. 10. Duarte D. 79. Erivaldo 5. Nandinho 3. Pedro M. (C) 88. Silva D. 33. Silva J. 9. Soares P. 2. Sousa B. 95. Sousa V.	31. Matos F. (G) 99. Balelo 3. Duarte D. P. 14. Erik 44. Ferreira P. (C) 23. Macedo Z. 7. Miguel 4. Pereira Pacheco R. F. 26. Santos Outeiro D. 21. Veiga D. 84. Yuk J.
Substitutes
23. Garro L. 27. Guimaraes B. 18. Martins D. 53. Matos T. 11. Mauro Ribeiro 7. Pedro P. 21. Pedrosa C. 25. Pereira H. 26. Ze Couto (G)	8. Carvalho D. 9. Fonseca R. 16. Goncalves T. (G) 20. Lemos I. M. 6. Matheus Brito 5. Moreira Nuno 10. Soares A. 29. Vasco Rocha 11. Zacarias V.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
26', Pedro M. 🟨,
30', Pereira Pacheco R. F. 🟨,
32', Sousa B. 🟨,
41', Erik 🟨,
42', Soares P. 🟨,
44', Doukoure H. 🟨,
45+3', Silva D. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
55', 0 - 1, Balelo ⚽,
57', Miguel 🟨,
61', 0 - 2, Balelo ⚽, Erik (A),
67', Sousa B. ↓, Guimaraes B. ↑,
67', Doukoure H. ↓, Mauro Ribeiro ↑,
67', Duarte D. ↓, Pedro P. ↑,
68', Veiga D. ↓, Vasco Rocha ↑,
68', Miguel ↓, Zacarias V. ↑,
78', Yuk J. ↓, Carvalho D. ↑,
78', Erik ↓, Matheus Brito ↑,
81', Sousa V. ↓, Garro L. ↑,
85', Balelo ↓, Fonseca R. ↑,
90', Pedro P. 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Marco won 1.

Marco has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Paredes is in great form and has won several matches in a row (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Paredes might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Marco won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 3:5. (average 0.5:0.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Marco won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 1:3. (average 0.3:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AD Marco 09
Portuguese Liga 3
25.01.26	Marco 09 - Varzim	1:3 ✺
18.01.26	Trofense - Marco 09	0:1 ✺
11.01.26	Marco 09 - Paredes	0:3 ✺
04.01.26	Braga B - Marco 09	2:1 ✺
21.12.25	Marco 09 - São João de Ver	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.8 LWLLW
- USC Paredes
Portuguese Liga 3
25.01.26	São João de Ver - Paredes	1:2 ✺
18.01.26	Paredes - Amarante	0:0 ✺
11.01.26	Marco 09 - Paredes	0:3 ✺
04.01.26	Paredes - Sanjoanense	3:0 ✺
21.12.25	Vitoria Guimarães B - Paredes	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.7 WTWWW

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 3
11.01.26	Marco 09 - Paredes	0:3
05.10.25	Paredes - Marco 09	2:0
Campeonato de Portugal - Group A
01.06.25	Paredes - Marco 09	0:0
11.05.25	Marco 09 - Paredes	0:0
Campeonato de Portugal - Group B
24.03.24	Paredes - Marco 09	0:2
10.12.23	Marco 09 - Paredes	1:0

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