Match Info

FRANCE: Coupe de France - 1/16-finals

Date: 14 January 2025, Tuesday

Location: Stade Marie-Marvingt (Le Mans)

Referee: Batta F. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Le Mans		Valenciennes

	1	X	2
				Watch
				Watch
				Watch
	2.1	3.1	3.4
				Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.1 ↑ (2.08)	3.1 ↓ (3.16)	3.4 ↓ (3.43)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 9.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Le Mans
43.6%

Draw
29.5%

Valenciennes
26.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44.1%

29.1%

26.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45.2%

28.4%

26.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Le Mans has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.5%)

Valenciennes has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Le Mans than the current prediction. (+1.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Valenciennes than the current prediction. (-0.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
85.7%	7.1%	7.1%

Le Mans - Valenciennes Predictions

Users Predictions: Le Mans will win (12 of 14 users predict this - 85.71%).
Confidence interval (95%): 67.38% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Hatfout E. (G) 7. Ribelin A. 2. Lamgahez Z. 3. Eyoum T. 5. Voyer H. 11. Burlet V. 10. Bernardeau G. 8. Lauray A. 6. Rossignol M. 4. Vula A. 9. Gueye D.	1. Camara P. (G) 2. Diomande A. 4. Toure O. 5. Woudenberg L. 3. Basse S. 6. Sissoko S. 9. Moursou J. 10. Boissier R. (C) 11. Lilepo M. 7. Antoine C. 8. Traore D.
Substitutes
14. Calodat L. 16. Kocik N. (G) 15. Matumona J. 20. Nonnenmacher M. 17. Oggad B. 13. Ouchen A. 18. Oudjani A. 19. Rabillard A. 12. Yohou S.	19. Buades L. 20. Camblan A. 14. Collet J. 18. Dibassy B. 12. Masson J. 16. Michel M. (G) 17. Mpata B. 15. Oyewusi M. 13. Poha J.
Coaches
Videira P.	Hognon V.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
7', Lamgahez Z. 🟨,
9', Traore D. 🟨,
28', 1 - 0, Vula A. ⚽, Gueye D. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Lamgahez Z. ↓, Yohou S. ↑,
59', Antoine C. ↓, Oyewusi M. ↑,
59', Traore D. ↓, Camblan A. ↑,
68', Bernardeau G. ↓, Ouchen A. ↑,
69', Vula A. ↓, Rabillard A. ↑,
72', Boissier R. ↓, Buades L. ↑,
73', Moursou J. ↓, Masson J. ↑,
73', Basse S. ↓, Mpata B. ↑,
76', Mpata B. 🟨,
82', 1 - 1, Oyewusi M. ⚽,
84', Voyer H. 🟨,
84', Masson J. 🟨,
86', Rossignol M. ↓, Oudjani A. ↑,
90+3', Ribelin A. ↓, Oggad B. ↑,
Penalties (4 - 3)
1, Camblan A. (Pen),
1, Eyoum T. (Pen),
2, Oyewusi M. (Pen),
2, Rabillard A. (Pen),
3, Lilepo M. (Pen),
3, Gueye D. (Pen),
4, Sissoko S. (Pen),
4, Burlet V. (Pen),
5, Buades L. (Pen),
5, Oggad B. (Pen),

Preview

Le Mans is in actual amazing shape (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Recent matches Valenciennes is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Le Mans will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 3 head-to-head matches Le Mans won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 3:4 (average 1:1.3).

Including matches at home between the teams Le Mans won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 3:3 (average 1.5:1.5).

Last Results with these Odds

Valenciennes - the odds 3.43 are the expected chance of winning is 26.82%, but this team recently wins 14% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Le Mans FC
French Ligue 3
10.01.25	Rouen FC - Le Mans	2:2 ✺
Coupe De France
22.12.24	Marmande - Le Mans	0:7 ✺
French Ligue 3
13.12.24	Le Mans - Valenciennes	2:1 ✺
06.12.24	Nîmes - Le Mans	0:0 ✺
Coupe De France
30.11.24	Le Mans - St Colomban-Locminé	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.6 TWWTW
- Valenciennes FC
French Ligue 3
10.01.25	Valenciennes - Paris 13 Atletico	1:1 ✺
Coupe De France
22.12.24	Thionville Lusitanos - Valenciennes	2:3 penalties ✺
French Ligue 3
13.12.24	Le Mans - Valenciennes	2:1 ✺
Coupe De France
30.11.24	Valenciennes - Neuilly-sur-Marne	4:3 ✺
French Ligue 3
22.11.24	Quevilly - Valenciennes	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.4 TWLWL

Latest Head to Head

French Ligue 3
13.12.24	Le Mans - Valenciennes	2:1
French Ligue 2
24.01.20	Valenciennes - Le Mans	1:0
09.08.19	Le Mans - Valenciennes	1:2

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