Match Info

FRANCE: Coupe de France - 1/32-finals

Date: 22 December 2024, Sunday

Location: Stade de Guentrange (Thionville)

Referee: Lepaysant B. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:


France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 9, Free


	Thionville Lusitanos		Valenciennes

	1	X	2
	3	3.2	2.15	Watch
	3	3.3	2.15
	3.15	3.45	2.22
	2.89	3.31	2.23
	2.99	3.37	2.19	Watch
	3.1	3.2	2.2
	3.22	3.4	2.17
	3.15	3.45	2.22
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.06 ↑ (2.9)	3.34 ↑ (2.6)	2.19 ↑ (2.1)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 5.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Thionville Lusitanos
30.2%

Draw
27.7%

Valenciennes
42.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

28.6%

31.9%

39.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

34.4%

26.5%

32.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Thionville Lusitanos has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.6%)

Valenciennes has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Thionville Lusitanos than the current prediction. (+4.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Valenciennes than the current prediction. (-9.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Valenciennes, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Thionville Lusitanos - Valenciennes Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Zimmermann A. (G) 4. Bouzar S. (C) 3. Wanduka C. 7. Rampont M. 2. Luvualu D. 8. Bourgeois M. 6. Atangana J. 5. Poinsignon V. 10. Groune A. 9. Baradji I. 11. Moustaid J.	30. Michel M. (G) 3. Buades L. 5. Poha J. 4. Woudenberg L. 2. Diomande A. 7. Boissier R. (C) 6. Masson J. 10. Boutoutaou A. 8. Traore D. 11. Lilepo M. 9. Oyewusi M.
Substitutes
17. Botulama M. 13. Collet V. 18. Diabate A. 16. Dupuis K. (G) 19. Jacquel T. 14. Lauratet J. 15. Omosanya M. 12. Tela L. 20. Vitoux J.	17. Antoine C. 16. Camara P. (G) 15. Flamarion 12. Kayi Sanda J. 13. Moursou J. 19. Mpata B. 18. Niakate S. 14. Venema N.
Coaches
Francois J.	Hognon V.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
14', 0 - 1, Lilepo M. ⚽,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
46', Atangana J. ↓, Omosanya M. ↑,
48', 1 - 1, Omosanya M. ⚽, Groune A. (A),
70', Boutoutaou A. ↓, Flamarion ↑,
74', 1 - 2, Woudenberg L. ⚽, Boissier R. (A),
80', Moustaid J. 🟨,
81', Baradji I. ↓, Vitoux J. ↑,
85', Poinsignon V. 🟨,
89', Lilepo M. ↓, Antoine C. ↑,
90', Bourgeois M. ↓, Botulama M. ↑,
90+7', 2 - 2, Vitoux J. ⚽, Groune A. (A),
90+9', Moustaid J. ↓, Jacquel T. ↑,
Penalties (4 - 5)
1, (Pen),
1, Flamarion (Pen),
2, Groune A. (Pen),
2, Oyewusi M. (Pen),
3, Luvualu D. (Pen),
3, Antoine C. (Pen),
4, Jacquel T. (Pen),
4, Traore D. (Pen),
5, Rampont M. (Pen),
5, Buades L. (Pen),
6, (Pen),
6, (Pen),

Preview

Recent matches Thionville Lusitanos is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Valenciennes is in bad shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Valenciennes could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Valenciennes will have a mini benefit in this match.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- US Thionville Lusitanos
French National 1 - Group C
14.12.24	Thionville Lusitanos - Haguenau	1:1 ✺
08.12.24	FC 93 - Thionville Lusitanos	1:0 ✺
23.11.24	Thionville Lusitanos - Feignies Aulnoye	3:1 ✺
08.11.24	Fleury 91 - Thionville Lusitanos	2:1 ✺
02.11.24	Thionville Lusitanos - Beauvais Oise	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.9 TLWLW
- Valenciennes FC
French Ligue 3
13.12.24	Le Mans - Valenciennes	2:1 ✺
Coupe De France
30.11.24	Valenciennes - Neuilly-sur-Marne	4:3 ✺
French Ligue 3
22.11.24	Quevilly - Valenciennes	2:0 ✺
08.11.24	Valenciennes - Bourg-Péronnas	1:2 ✺
01.11.24	Boulogne - Valenciennes	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.8 LWLLT

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