Match Info

Ekstraklasa - Round 7

Date: 31 August 2025, Sunday

Location: Stadion Poznan (Poznań)

Referee: Gryckiewicz P. (Pol)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	FOX Sports 3
Canada	beIN Connect
Croatia	Arena Sport 5, MAXtv To Go
Finland	Veikkaus TV
Poland	CANAL+ Premium, Ekstraklasa TV, TVP Sport
Spain	GolStadium
Usa	beIN Connect, Fanatiz


	Lech Poznań		Widzew Łódź

	1	X	2
	1.9	3.4	3.7	Watch
	1.75	3.7	4.33
	1.85	3.55	3.8
	2	3.74	3.84
	1.39	4.38	8.54	Watch
	1.75	3.6	4
	1.97	3.52	3.83	Watch
	1.83	3.85	3.85
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.81 ↓ (1.82)	3.72 ↑ (3.65)	4.49 ↑ (3.9)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lech Poznań
53%

Draw
25.7%

Widzew Łódź
21.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50.9%

25.4%

23.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45.5%

22.7%

26.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lech Poznań has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.1%)

Widzew Łódź has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lech Poznań than the current prediction. (-7.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Lech Poznań that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Widzew Łódź than the current prediction. (+5.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Widzew Łódź could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
75%	10%	15%

Lech Poznań - Widzew Łódź Predictions

Users Predictions: 20 users predict this event. Lech will win (votes: 15 - 75%). Widzew will win (votes: 3 - 15%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 10%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Lech: 56% – 94%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Lech (votes: 3 - 50%). Widzew (votes: 1 - 16.7%). Tie (votes: 2 - 33.3%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -1.5 - Lech (3.13) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 7 Selected Experts predict this event. Lech (votes: 4 - 57.1%). Widzew (votes: 1 - 14.3%). Tie (votes: 2 - 28.6%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
41. Mrozek B. (G) 2. Pereira J. 27. Monka W. 72. Skrzypczak M. 4. Moutinho J. 14. Bengtsson L. 6. Ouma T. 43. Kozubal A. (C) 77. Palma L. 19. Fiabema B. 24. Jagiello F.	98. Kikolski M. (G) 91. Krajewski M. 4. Zyro M. 14. Visus R. 13. Gallapeni D. 10. Alvarez F. 55. Czyz S. 6. Shehu J. 77. Baena Perez A. 7. Fornalczyk M. 19. Pawlowski B. (C)
Substitutes
31. Bakowski K. (G) 21. Baranski B. 3. Douglas A. 53. Dudek S. 15. Gurgul M. 11. Jakobczyk K. 56. Lisman K. 99. Rodriguez P. 17. Szymczak F. 23. Thordarson G.	57. Akere S. 5. Andreou S. 78. Cybulski K. 1. Gikiewicz R. (G) 25. Hanousek Mar. 20. Klukowski A. 33. Krzywanski J. (G) 18. Selahi L. 8. Teklic T. 24. Volanakis P.
Coaches
Frederiksen N.	Czubak P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
21', 1 - 0, Palma L. ⚽, Pereira J. (A),
29', Kozubal A. 🟨,
37', Bengtsson L. 🟨,
42', Moutinho J. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
50', 1 - 1, Pawlowski B. (Pen),
51', Mrozek B. 🟨,
59', Kozubal A. ↓, Rodriguez P. ↑,
60', Ouma T. ↓, Thordarson G. ↑,
60', Moutinho J. ↓, Gurgul M. ↑,
60', Bengtsson L. ↓, Lisman K. ↑,
65', 2 - 1, Fiabema B. ⚽,
66', Pawlowski B. ↓, Klukowski A. ↑,
66', Baena Perez A. ↓, Akere S. ↑,
76', Fornalczyk M. ↓, Teklic T. ↑,
81', Czyz S. ↓, Selahi L. ↑,
86', Pereira J. ↓, Douglas A. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Lech won 2.

Lech has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Widzew is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Widzew may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Lech is a strong favorite.

There will not play in Lech: Gholizadeh A. (Thigh Injury) Gumny R. (Ankle Injury) Hakans D. (Ankle Injury) Murawski R. (Leg Injury) Walemark P. (Surgery)

There will not play in Widzew: Bergier S. (Red Card) Kozlovsky S. (Ankle Injury) Therkildsen P. (Muscle Injury)

There are questionable in Lech: Milic A. (Injury)

In the last 12 head-to-head matches, Lech won 7 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 23:12. (average 1.9:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Lech won 5 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 16:6. (average 2.3:0.9).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Lech Poznań
UEFA Europa League
28.08.25	Genk - Lech Poznań	1:2 ✺
21.08.25	Lech Poznań - Genk	1:5 ✺
Polish Ekstraklasa
16.08.25	Lech Poznań - Korona Kielce	1:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League
12.08.25	Crvena Zvezda Belgrade - Lech Poznań	1:1 ✺
06.08.25	Lech Poznań - Crvena Zvezda Belgrade	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.6 WLTTL
- Widzew Łódź
Polish Ekstraklasa
22.08.25	Widzew Łódź - Pogoń Szczecin	1:2 ✺
15.08.25	Cracovia - Widzew Łódź	1:0 ✺
09.08.25	Widzew Łódź - Wisła Płock	1:1 ✺
02.08.25	Widzew Łódź - GKS Katowice	3:0 ✺
27.07.25	Jagiellonia Białystok - Widzew Łódź	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.8 LLTWL

Latest Head to Head

Polish Ekstraklasa
31.01.25	Lech Poznań - Widzew Łódź	4:1
27.07.24	Widzew Łódź - Lech Poznań	2:1
19.05.24	Widzew Łódź - Lech Poznań	1:1
26.11.23	Lech Poznań - Widzew Łódź	1:3
19.03.23	Widzew Łódź - Lech Poznań	1:2
04.09.22	Lech Poznań - Widzew Łódź	2:0
Club Friendly
18.06.22	Lech Poznań - Widzew Łódź	1:2

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