Match Info

Europa League - Qualification - Final

Date: 21 August 2025, Thursday

Location: Stadion Poznan (Poznań)

Referee: Rumsas D. (Ltu)

Where to Watch on TV:


Belgium	VTM 2
Poland	TVP 2
Slovakia	Arena sport 1
Usa	DAZN USA


	Lech Poznań		Genk

	1	X	2
	3.4	3.6	2.05	Watch
	3.1	3.5	2.1
	3.25	3.55	2.08	Watch
	3.43	3.71	2.16
	2.9	3.4	2.15
	3.53	3.72	2.07	Watch
	2.8	3.15	2.47
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.2 ↑ (2.8)	3.52 ↑ (3.2)	2.15 ↓ (2.4)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 2.4%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Lech Poznań
29.4%

Draw
26.8%

Genk
43.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

32.9%

28.8%

38.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

33.1%

28.6%

38.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lech Poznań has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.5%)

Genk has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Genk's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lech Poznań than the current prediction. (+3.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Genk than the current prediction. (-5.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Genk, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
16.7%	21.4%	61.9%

Lech Poznań - Genk Predictions

Users Predictions: 40 users predict this event. Lech will win (votes: 5 - 12.5%). Genk will win (votes: 26 - 65%). It will Tie (votes: 9 - 22.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Genk: 50.2% – 79.8%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 9 Selected Experts predict this event. Lech (votes: 2 - 22.2%). Genk (votes: 5 - 55.6%). Tie (votes: 2 - 22.2%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 3 - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .

BTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .

DC - Genk (1.32) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DNB - Genk (1.50) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 11 Selected Experts predict this event. Lech (votes: 2 - 18.2%). Genk (votes: 7 - 63.6%). Tie (votes: 2 - 18.2%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
41. Mrozek B. (G) 3. Douglas A. 72. Skrzypczak M. 16. Milic A. 4. Moutinho J. 43. Kozubal A. 23. Thordarson G. 77. Palma L. 24. Jagiello F. 14. Bengtsson L. 9. Ishak M. (C)	26. Lawal T. (G) 77. El Ouahdi Z. 3. Sadick M. 6. Smets M. 18. Kayembe J. 21. Bangoura I. 8. Heynen B. (C) 17. Hrosovsky P. 7. Steuckers J. 14. Sor Y. 9. Oh Hyeon-Gyu
Substitutes
31. Bakowski K. (G) 21. Baranski B. 53. Dudek S. 19. Fiabema B. 15. Gurgul M. 56. Lisman K. 27. Monka W. 6. Ouma T. 33. Pruchniewski M. (G) 99. Rodriguez P. 18. Salamon B. 17. Szymczak F.	32. Adedeji-Sternberg N. 99. Arokodare T. 10. Ito J. 20. Karetsas K. 44. Kongolo J. 19. Medina Y. 29. Mirisola R. 28. Mounganga L. (G) 27. Nkuba K. 34. Palacios A. 24. Sattlberger N. 71. Stevens B. (G)
Coaches
Frederiksen N.	Fink T.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 4)
10', 0 - 1, Hrosovsky P. ⚽, El Ouahdi Z. (A),
14', Smets M. 🟨,
19', 1 - 1, Jagiello F. ⚽, Ishak M. (A),
25', 1 - 2, Hrosovsky P. ⚽, Steuckers J. (A),
26', Milic A. ↓, Monka W. ↑,
33', 1 - 3, Heynen B. ⚽, Smets M. (A),
38', Oh Hyeon-Gyu (Pen),
40', 1 - 4, Oh Hyeon-Gyu ⚽, Sor Y. (A),
42', Steuckers J. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Douglas A. ↓, Gurgul M. ↑,
48', 1 - 5, Gurgul M. (Own goal), Steuckers J. (A),
57', Moutinho J. 🟨,
61', Bengtsson L. ↓, Fiabema B. ↑,
61', Thordarson G. ↓, Ouma T. ↑,
70', Steuckers J. ↓, Ito J. ↑,
70', Sor Y. ↓, Adedeji-Sternberg N. ↑,
78', Oh Hyeon-Gyu ↓, Arokodare T. ↑,
78', Heynen B. ↓, Karetsas K. ↑,
79', Ishak M. ↓, Lisman K. ↑,
90+1', Bangoura I. 🟨,
90+1', Bangoura I. ↓, Sattlberger N. ↑,

Preview

1st leg.

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Genk could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Lech won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 1:4. (average 0.5:2).

Including home match between the teams, Lech won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Lech Poznań
Polish Ekstraklasa
16.08.25	Lech Poznań - Korona Kielce	1:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League
12.08.25	Crvena Zvezda Belgrade - Lech Poznań	1:1 ✺
06.08.25	Lech Poznań - Crvena Zvezda Belgrade	1:3 ✺
Polish Ekstraklasa
02.08.25	Lech Poznań - Górnik Zabrze	2:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League
30.07.25	Breiðablik - Lech Poznań	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.5 TTLWW
- Racing Genk
Belgian Jupiler Pro League
15.08.25	Oud-Heverlee Leuven - Genk	1:2 ✺
10.08.25	Standard Liège - Genk	2:1 ✺
03.08.25	Genk - Royal Antwerp	1:1 ✺
27.07.25	Club Brugge - Genk	2:1 ✺
Club Friendly
19.07.25	Genk - Rayo Vallecano	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.1 WLTLT

Latest Head to Head

UEFA Europa League
16.08.18	Lech Poznań - Genk	1:2
09.08.18	Genk - Lech Poznań	2:0

Upcoming Matches