Match Info

Conference League - League phase - Round 1

Date: 2 October 2025, Thursday

Location: Stadion Poznan (Poznań)

Referee: Hennessey R. (Irl)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 7, TOD
Australia	Stan Sport
Austria	Canal+
Denmark	Disney+
Finland	Viaplay
France	Canal+ Live 15
Germany	RTL+
Hong-kong	beIN SPORTS MAX
Hungary	RTL+
Iceland	Viaplay
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Laos	beIN Connect
Malaysia	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX
Norway	Viaplay
Peru	Disney+
Philippines	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX
Poland	Polsat Sport 1, Polsat Sport Premium 1
Russia	Okko Sport
Singapore	beIN SPORTS MAX
South-america	ViX Latin America
Spain	M+ Liga de Campeones 14, Movistar Plus+
Sweden	Disney+
Thailand	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 16
United-kingdom	Amazon Prime Video, Discovery+ App, Discovery+
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	Paramount+
Venezuela	Disney+
Vietnam	ON Plus


	Lech Poznań		Rapid Wien

	1	X	2
	2.3	3.6	2.88
	2.28	3.55	2.82
	2.4	3.7	2.92
	2.19	3.65	3.00	Watch
	2.39	3.67	2.86
	2.4	3.4	2.9
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.33 ↓ (2.41)	3.6 ↑ (3.34)	2.9 ↑ (2.81)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lech Poznań
40.8%

Draw
26.4%

Rapid Wien
32.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.8%

28%

33.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

40.4%

29.1%

32%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lech Poznań has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2%)

Rapid Wien has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lech Poznań than the current prediction. (-0.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Rapid Wien than the current prediction. (-0.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
45.8%	45.8%	8.3%

Lech Poznań - Rapid Wien Predictions

Users Predictions: 23 users predict this event. Lech will win (votes: 11 - 47.8%). Rapid will win (votes: 2 - 8.7%). It will Tie (votes: 10 - 43.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Lech: 27.4% – 68.2%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 10 Selected Experts predict this event. Lech (votes: 3 - 30%). Rapid (votes: 4 - 40%). Tie (votes: 3 - 30%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - Lech (1.42) (votes: 1 - 50%) .

O/U 1, 2nd Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 1.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 12 Selected Experts predict this event. Lech (votes: 4 - 33.3%). Rapid (votes: 5 - 41.7%). Tie (votes: 3 - 25%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
41. Mrozek B. (G) 2. Pereira J. 3. Douglas A. 16. Milic A. 15. Gurgul M. 24. Jagiello F. 6. Ouma T. 88. Ismaheel T. 77. Palma L. 56. Lisman K. 9. Ishak M. (C)	1. Hedl N. (G) 77. Bolla B. 55. Cvetkovic N. (C) 20. Ahoussou A. 38. Horn J. 29. Amane R. 17. Gulliksen T. 8. Grgic L. 15. Wurmbrand N. 71. M'Buyi C. 49. Radulovic A.
Substitutes
7. Agnero Y. 31. Bakowski K. (G) 14. Bengtsson L. 19. Fiabema B. 20. Gumny R. 43. Kozubal A. 27. Monka W. 4. Moutinho J. 33. Pruchniewski M. (G) 99. Rodriguez P. 72. Skrzypczak M. 23. Thordarson G.	23. Auer J. 61. Demir F. 25. Gartler P. (G) 51. Goschl B. (G) 9. Kara E. 14. Ndzie M. 6. Raux Yao S. 21. Schaub L. 4. Scholler J. M. 18. Seidl M. 7. Tilio M. 41. Weixelbraun D.
Coaches
Frederiksen N.	Stoger P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (3 - 0)
13', 1 - 0, Palma L. ⚽,
21', 2 - 0, Ishak M. ⚽, Palma L. (A),
34', Ishak M. (Pen),
45+2', 3 - 0, Ismaheel T. ⚽, Palma L. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Wurmbrand N. ↓, Tilio M. ↑,
64', 3 - 1, Radulovic A. ⚽, Horn J. (A),
65', Grgic L. ↓, Ndzie M. ↑,
65', M'Buyi C. ↓, Kara E. ↑,
68', Milic A. ↓, Skrzypczak M. ↑,
68', Ishak M. ↓, Agnero Y. ↑,
68', Jagiello F. ↓, Kozubal A. ↑,
76', Lisman K. ↓, Bengtsson L. ↑,
77', 4 - 1, Bengtsson L. ⚽, Ismaheel T. (A),
80', Horn J. ↓, Demir F. ↑,
80', Amane R. ↓, Schaub L. ↑,
81', Ismaheel T. ↓, Fiabema B. ↑,
84', Pereira J. 🟨,
87', Ndzie M. 🟨,
88', Ouma T. 🟨,
90+5', Fiabema B. 🟨,

Preview

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Rapid may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

There will not play in Lech: Gholizadeh A. (Thigh Injury) Hakans D. (Ankle Injury) Walemark P. (Surgery)

There will not play in Rapid: Bischof N. (Ankle Injury) Borkeeiet T. (Knee Injury) Dahl P. (Muscle Injury) Groller A. (Knock) Marcelin J. (Hamstring Injury) Strunz O. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Lech: Murawski R. (Leg Injury)

The teams have not played against each other recently.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Lech Poznań
Polish Ekstraklasa
28.09.25	Lech Poznań - Jagiellonia Białystok	2:2 ✺
24.09.25	Raków Częstochowa - Lech Poznań	2:2 ✺
20.09.25	Termalica Nieciecza - Lech Poznań	0:2 ✺
12.09.25	Lech Poznań - Zagłębie Lubin	1:2 ✺
31.08.25	Lech Poznań - Widzew Łódź	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.2 TTWLW
- Rapid Wien
Austrian Bundesliga
28.09.25	Rapid Wien - Austria Wien	1:3 ✺
21.09.25	Grazer AK - Rapid Wien	1:1 ✺
Austrian OFB Cup
17.09.25	Oberwart - Rapid Wien	1:2 ✺
Austrian Bundesliga
14.09.25	Rapid Wien - Swarovski Tirol	4:1 ✺
Club Friendly
05.09.25	Rapid Wien - Venezia	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.6 LTWWT

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