Match Info

EUROPE: EUROPA CONFERENCE LEAGUE - QUALIFICATION - SEMI-FINALS

Date: 10 August 2023, Thursday

Location: Enea Stadium (Poznań)

Referee: Karaoglan A. (Tur)


	Lech Poznań		Spartak Trnava

	1	X	2
	1.29	4.75	8	Watch
	1.28	5.25	9.25
	1.32	4	9
	1.32	5	9.5
	1.29	5.15	11.69
	1.3	5.25	9.9	Watch
	1.31	5.6	10
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.3 ↓ (1.55)	5 ↑ (4.25)	9.62 ↑ (6)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 4.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lech Poznań
71.7%

Draw
18.7%

Spartak Trnava
9.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

61.6%

22.5%

15.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

63.1%

22%

15.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lech Poznań has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Lech Poznań's performance.

Spartak Trnava has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Spartak Trnava might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lech Poznań than the current prediction. (-8.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Lech Poznań that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Spartak Trnava than the current prediction. (+5.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Spartak Trnava could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
91.3%	0%	8.7%

Lech Poznań - Spartak Trnava Predictions

Users Predictions: Lech Poznań will win (21 of 23 users predict this - 91.3%).
Confidence interval (95%): 79.78% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
35. Bednarek F. (G) 2. Pereira J. 23. Blazic M. 16. Milic A. 5. Andersson E. 22. Murawski R. 21. Hotic D. 10. Marchwinski F. 6. Karlstrom J. 11. Velde K. 9. Ishak M. (C)	71. Takac D. (G) 24. Kostrna K. 2. Stetina L. 26. Kosa S. 29. Mikovic M. 25. Bainovic F. 80. Zeljkovic A. 6. Prochazka R. (C) 97. Ofori K. 7. Djuricin M. 23. Daniel E.
Substitutes
50. Ba Loua A. 44. Czerwinski A. 15. Gurgul M. 30. Kvekveskiri N. 41. Mrozek B. (G) 55. Pingot M. 90. Sobiech A. 7. Sousa A. 17. Szymczak F. 54. Wilak F.	11. Azango P. 28. Bukata M. 4. Gorosito N. 5. Kompan M. 20. Oseni A. 14. Pena R. 19. Ristovski M. 31. Rusov D. (G) 8. Stefanik S. 18. Sulek M. 13. Ujlaky M. 72. Vantruba M. (G)
Coaches
van den Brom J.	Gasparik M.

Preview

1st leg.

Lech in the last match got series victories and it is in a very good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Recent matches Trnava is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

In this match Lech is indisputable favorite.

Our prediction for today's Lech to win the game is with odds 1.32.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Lech Poznań
Polish Ekstraklasa
06.08.23	Zagłębie Lubin - Lech Poznań	1:1 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
03.08.23	Kauno Žalgiris - Lech Poznań	1:2 ✺
Polish Ekstraklasa
30.07.23	Lech Poznań - Radomiak Radom	2:0 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
27.07.23	Lech Poznań - Kauno Žalgiris	3:1 ✺
Polish Ekstraklasa
22.07.23	Piast Gliwice - Lech Poznań	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.8 TWWWW
- Spartak Trnava
Slovak Superliga
06.08.23	Zlaté Moravce-Vrable - Spartak Trnava	1:1 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
03.08.23	Spartak Trnava - Auda Riga	4:1 ✺
Slovak Superliga
30.07.23	Spartak Trnava - Trenčín	1:2 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
27.07.23	Auda Riga - Spartak Trnava	1:1 ✺
Club Friendly
22.07.23	Spartak Trnava - Valencia	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.6 TWLTL

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