Match Info

Ekstraklasa - Round 25

Date: 15 March 2026, Sunday

Location: KGHM Zaglebie Arena (Lubin)

Referee: Stefanski D. (Pol)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	FOX Sports 3
Canada	beIN Connect, beIN Sports XTRA Espanol
Croatia	Arena Sport 8, MAXtv To Go
Finland	Veikkaus TV
Poland	CANAL+ Sport 3, Ekstraklasa TV
Spain	GolStadium
Ukraine	Sport 2
Usa	beIN Connect, beIN Sports US XTRA Espanol, Tubi TV
World	Sport 2 Baltic


	Zagłębie Lubin		Lech Poznań

	1	X	2
	3.8	3.25	1.9	Watch
	3.5	3.35	2
	4.01	3.44	2.02
	3.87	3.47	2	Watch
	3.75	3.25	1.91
	3.81	3.3	1.97	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.79 ↓ (4.07)	3.34 ↑ (3.13)	1.97 ↓ (2.06)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Zagłębie Lubin
24.6%

Draw
27.9%

Lech Poznań
47.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

23.4%

30.4%

46.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

22.5%

31.6%

48%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Zagłębie Lubin has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.2%)

Lech Poznań has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Zagłębie Lubin than the current prediction. (-2.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lech Poznań than the current prediction. (+0.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
46.2%	23.1%	30.8%

Zagłębie Lubin - Lech Poznań Predictions

Users Predictions: 13 users predict this event. Zagłębie Lubin will win (votes: 6 - 46.2%). Lech will win (votes: 4 - 30.8%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 23.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Zagłębie Lubin: 19.1% – 73.3%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Zagłębie Lubin (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Lech (votes: 2 - 66.7%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.5 - Zagłębie Lubin (3.57) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Zagłębie Lubin (1.74) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Zagłębie Lubin (votes: 3 - 60%). Lech (votes: 2 - 40%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Buric J. (G) 31. Orlikowski I. 25. Nalepa M. 4. Michalski D. 16. Corluka J. 8. Dabrowski D. (C) 20. Dziewiatowski M. 13. Grzybek M. 44. Regula M. 9. Kosidis M. 18. Radwanski A.	41. Mrozek B. (G) 2. Pereira J. 27. Monka W. 16. Milic A. 4. Moutinho J. 8. Gholizadeh A. 43. Kozubal A. 99. Rodriguez P. 14. Bengtsson L. 9. Ishak M. (C) 10. Walemark P.
Substitutes
27. Diaz J. 12. Gikiewicz R. (G) 39. Kocaba F. 26. Kolan J. 7. Kowalczyk S. 35. Lucic L. 88. Mlinaric M. 19. Sypek J. 17. Szabo L. 94. Urbanski M. 11. Wozniak A.	7. Agnero Y. 1. Andreev P. (G) 20. Gumny R. 15. Gurgul M. 88. Ismaheel T. 6. Ouma T. 77. Palma L. 72. Skrzypczak M. 23. Thordarson G.
Coaches
Ojrzynski L.	Frederiksen N.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
7', 0 - 1, Ishak M. ⚽,
14', Nalepa M. 🟨,
41', Moutinho J. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Dziewiatowski M. ↓, Kowalczyk S. ↑,
46', Kosidis M. ↓, Szabo L. ↑,
46', Grzybek M. ↓, Lucic L. ↑,
53', Kozubal A. 🟨,
64', Walemark P. ↓, Palma L. ↑,
64', Moutinho J. ↓, Gurgul M. ↑,
68', Corluka J. ↓, Diaz J. ↑,
73', Rodriguez P. ↓, Thordarson G. ↑,
73', Ishak M. ↓, Agnero Y. ↑,
79', Orlikowski I. ↓, Sypek J. ↑,
86', Gholizadeh A. ↓, Gumny R. ↑,
90+2', Monka W. 🟨,

Preview

One of today’s top clashes will feature two teams fighting for the top spots (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: ) and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Zagłębie Lubin won 1.

Zagłębie Lubin has shown excellent form with a series of wins in recent matches (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Lech's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Zagłębie Lubin may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Lech has had a series of home games.

Lech is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

There will not play in Zagłębie Lubin: Hladun D. (Shoulder Injury) Lawniczak A. (Inactive)

There will not play in Lech: Douglas A. (Ribs Injury) Hakans D. (Inactive) Jagiello F. (Injury) Lisman K. (Inactive) Murawski R. (Surgery)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Zagłębie Lubin won 6 matches, drew 7 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 24:28. (average 1.2:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Zagłębie Lubin won 2 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 11:12. (average 1.2:1.3).

Outrights of Polish Ekstraklasa for now

Lech Poznan: 47.5% Zaglebie: 0.83%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Lech Poznan	9	7	1	1	21:8	13	22
8	Zaglebie	10	4	3	3	12:13	-1	15

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Zagłębie Lubin
Polish Ekstraklasa
07.03.26	Piast Gliwice - Zagłębie Lubin	1:3 ✺
02.03.26	Zagłębie Lubin - Wisła Płock	2:0 ✺
23.02.26	Lechia Gdańsk - Zagłębie Lubin	0:2 ✺
14.02.26	Zagłębie Lubin - Raków Częstochowa	0:0 ✺
06.02.26	Korona Kielce - Zagłębie Lubin	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 23.1 WWWTW
- Lech Poznań
UEFA Europa Conference League
12.03.26	Lech Poznań - Shakhtar Donetsk	1:3 ✺
Polish Ekstraklasa
07.03.26	Widzew Łódź - Lech Poznań	2:1 ✺
Polish Cup
04.03.26	Lech Poznań - Górnik Zabrze	0:1 ✺
Polish Ekstraklasa
01.03.26	Lech Poznań - Raków Częstochowa	4:3 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
26.02.26	Lech Poznań - KuPS Kuopio	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.2 LLLWW

Latest Head to Head

Polish Ekstraklasa
12.09.25	Lech Poznań - Zagłębie Lubin	1:2
23.02.25	Lech Poznań - Zagłębie Lubin	3:1
17.08.24	Zagłębie Lubin - Lech Poznań	0:1
10.02.24	Lech Poznań - Zagłębie Lubin	2:0
06.08.23	Zagłębie Lubin - Lech Poznań	1:1
19.02.23	Lech Poznań - Zagłębie Lubin	1:2
07.08.22	Zagłębie Lubin - Lech Poznań	1:1

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