Match Info

EUROPE: EUROPA CONFERENCE LEAGUE - QUALIFICATION - QUARTER-FINALS

Date: 27 July 2023, Thursday

Location: Skonto stadions (Riga)

Referee: Hovdanum K. (Fai)


	Auda Riga		Spartak Trnava

	1	X	2
	4.33	3.4	1.75	Watch
	4.33	3.3	1.77	Watch
	4.9	3.3	1.78
	4.5	3.3	1.85
	5	3.38	1.78
	4.7	3.54	1.77	Watch
	4.9	3.55	1.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.67 ↑ (3.45)	3.4 ↑ (3.33)	1.79 ↓ (2.1)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Auda Riga
20.1%

Draw
27.6%

Spartak Trnava
52.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

27.2%

28.2%

44.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

28.6%

26.8%

42.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Auda Riga has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Auda Riga's form might have worsened.

Spartak Trnava has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Spartak Trnava's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Auda Riga than the current prediction. (+8.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Auda Riga, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Spartak Trnava than the current prediction. (-10%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Spartak Trnava, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
3.6%	14.3%	82.1%

Auda Riga - Spartak Trnava Predictions

Users Predictions: Spartak Trnava will win (23 of 28 users predict this - 82.14%).
Confidence interval (95%): 67.95% – 96.33%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Ozols R. (G) 6. Mikulic B. 5. Minkevics I. 26. Isajevs V. (C) 11. Ogunniyi A. 7. Achol M. 38. Clemente M. 28. Ulimbasevs D. 27. Bretschneider N. 17. Mane E. 10. Reginaldo Ramires	72. Vantruba M. (G) 24. Kostrna K. 26. Kosa S. 4. Gorosito N. 29. Mikovic M. 8. Stefanik S. 6. Prochazka R. (C) 28. Bukata M. 97. Ofori K. 19. Ristovski M. 23. Daniel E.
Substitutes
16. Aleksandrovs N. (G) 20. Attuquaye J. 4. Diawara B. 23. Korotkovs I. 33. Novikovs J. 19. Piteo M. A. 71. Rubenis O. 14. Saveljevs A.	11. Azango P. 25. Bainovic F. 7. Djuricin M. 99. Ikugar K. 21. Karhan P. 5. Kompan Breznik M. 20. Oseni A. 14. Pena R. 31. Rusov D. (G) 71. Takac D. (G) 13. Ujlaky M. 80. Zeljkovic A.
Coaches
Valakari S.	Gasparik M.

Preview

1st leg.

Two teams are in a poor body shape now.

In this match Trnava is a favorite.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Auda Riga
Latvian Virsliga
23.07.23	Auda Riga - RFS	2:5 ✺
Latvian Cup
16.07.23	BFC Daugavpils - Auda Riga	1:4 ET ✺
Latvian Virsliga
08.07.23	Riga - Auda Riga	1:0 ✺
Club Friendly
05.07.23	Auda Riga - Aris	0:3 ✺
Latvian Virsliga
03.07.23	Auda Riga - Valmiera	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.2 LWLLT
- Spartak Trnava
Club Friendly
22.07.23	Spartak Trnava - Valencia	0:1 ✺
15.07.23	Spartak Trnava - Ipswich Town	1:2 ✺
08.07.23	Sturm Graz - Spartak Trnava	4:0 ✺
04.07.23	Spartak Trnava - Wisła Płock	2:1 ✺
28.06.23	Hajduk Split - Spartak Trnava	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.1 LLLWT

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