Match Info

Division 1 - Round 11

Date: 18 October 2026, Sunday 🏁 Finished

Location: Polsat Plus Arena (Gdansk) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Frankowski B. (Pol)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Poland	20:30	sport.tvp.pl, TVP Sport app, TVP Sport


	Lechia Gdańsk		Arka Gdynia

	1	X	2
	2.10	3.40	2.88
	2.15	3.50	2.90
	2.00	3.60	2.95
	2.24	3.62	3.20
	2.19	3.71	2.96	Watch
	2.20	3.40	3.15
	2.08	3.52	2.93	Watch
	2.12	3.50	2.95
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.14 ↓ (2.31)	3.53 ↑ (3.48)	2.99 ↑ (2.85)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 3.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lechia Gdańsk
43.1%

Draw
26.1%

Arka Gdynia
30.8%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

40.4%

26.8%

32.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.2%

25.7%

31.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lechia Gdańsk has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.7%)

Arka Gdynia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lechia Gdańsk than the current prediction. (-0.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Arka Gdynia than the current prediction. (+0.6%)

Lechia Gdańsk - Arka Gdynia Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Holewinski A. (G) 19. Kopasek S. 4. Lopata K. 21. Beskorovaynyi D. 3. Malov D. 30. Mena J. 33. Wojtowicz T. 99. Neugebauer T. (C) 7. Dodaj K. 97. Blanuta V. 13. Shakh A.	99. Arndt D. (G) 20. Gruszkowski K. 44. Dominguez J. 4. Komenda M. 94. Gojny D. (C) 8. Sidibe A. 28. Ambrosiewicz M. 19. Pawlowski B. 16. Solecki K. 9. Gutkovskis V. 17. Dziegielewski N.
Substitutes
8. Adkonis J. 17. Bambecki I. 9. Glogowski M. 20. Hovhannisyan N. 6. Ivanov H. 40. Madej W. 76. Mavraj I. 88. Szczepankiewicz B. 22. Weirauch S. (G)	33. Grobelny J. (G) 11. Kocyla D. 71. Kowalski J. 14. Kun D. 23. Lewkot S. 6. Lipkowski K. 98. Rama E. 3. Szota S. 77. Walus F.
Coaches
Lupashko V.	Grzegorczyk T.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
36', 1 - 0, Shakh A. ⚽,
45+3', Solecki K. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Dziegielewski N. ↓, Kocyla D. ↑,
47', 1 - 1, Gutkovskis V. ⚽,
51', 2 - 1, Dodaj K. ⚽, Shakh A. (A),
59', Pawlowski B. ↓, Walus F. ↑,
59', Gruszkowski K. ↓, Lipkowski K. ↑,
62', Sidibe A. 🟨,
68', Wojtowicz T. ↓, Ivanov H. ↑,
85', Neugebauer T. ↓, Szczepankiewicz B. ↑,
85', Mena J. ↓, Adkonis J. ↑,
85', Shakh A. ↓, Hovhannisyan N. ↑,
90', Kopasek S. 🟨,
90+3', Ambrosiewicz M. ↓, Rama E. ↑,

Preview

A clash between a stable mid-table side and a team seeking crucial survival points (ranked 7th and 16th in the Relegation - Division 2).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Lechia won 3.

Lechia is in solid form heading into this fixture (last 5 matches: 4 wins).

Arka is experiencing a dip in performance (last 5 matches: 1 win).

Lechia may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both teams have fairly balanced chances of victory.

In the last 13 head-to-head meetings, Lechia has recorded 8 wins, 4 draws, and 1 loss, with a goal aggregate of 23:15 (averaging 1.8:1.2 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Lechia against this opponent, the record stands at 6 wins, 0 draws, and 0 losses, with 15:8 goals (averaging 2.5:1.3 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
6	Lechia Gdansk	12	6	1	5	22:19	3	19
12	Arka Gdynia	12	4	2	6	16:16	0	14

Outrights of Polish Division 1 for now

Lechia Gdansk: 10.77% Arka Gdynia: 2.02%

Last Results with these Odds

Arka Gdynia - the odds 2.85 are the expected chance of winning is 32.76%, but this team recently wins 14% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Lechia Gdańsk
Polish Division 1
12.10.26	Stal Rzeszów - Lechia Gdańsk	1:2 ✺
Club Friendly
03.10.26	Ruch Chorzów - Lechia Gdańsk	1:3 ✺
Polish Division 1
19.09.26	Lechia Gdańsk - Stal Mielec	7:1 ✺
13.09.26	Lechia Gdańsk - Miedź Legnica	2:1 ✺
04.09.26	Termalica Nieciecza - Lechia Gdańsk	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.3 WWWWL
- Arka Gdynia
Polish Division 1
10.10.26	Arka Gdynia - Polonia Warsaw	1:2 ✺
Club Friendly
03.10.26	Arka Gdynia - IFK Göteborg	3:2 ✺
Polish Division 1
20.09.26	Pogoń Siedlce - Arka Gdynia	2:1 ✺
12.09.26	Warta Poznań - Arka Gdynia	3:0 ✺
06.09.26	Arka Gdynia - ŁKS Łódź	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.7 LWLLT

Latest Head to Head

Polish Ekstraklasa
27.02.26	Arka Gdynia - Lechia Gdańsk	2:2
24.08.25	Lechia Gdańsk - Arka Gdynia	1:0
Polish Division 1
19.05.24	Lechia Gdańsk - Arka Gdynia	2:1
24.11.23	Arka Gdynia - Lechia Gdańsk	1:0
Polish Ekstraklasa
31.05.20	Lechia Gdańsk - Arka Gdynia	4:3
20.10.19	Arka Gdynia - Lechia Gdańsk	2:2
02.04.19	Arka Gdynia - Lechia Gdańsk	0:0

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