Match Info

Ekstraklasa - Round 6

Date: 24 August 2025, Sunday

Location: Polsat Plus Arena (Gdansk)

Referee: Raczkowski P. (Pol)

Where to Watch on TV:


Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 5
Canada	beIN Connect
Croatia	Arena Sport 6, MAXtv To Go
Poland	CANAL+ 4K Ultra, CANAL+ Premium, CANAL+ Sport 3, Ekstraklasa TV
Usa	beIN Connect, Fanatiz


	Lechia Gdańsk		Arka Gdynia

	1	X	2
	1.95	3.8	3.4	Watch
	2.1	3.6	3.1
	2.08	3.65	3	Watch
	2.02	3.87	3.46
	1.99	3.70	3.45	Watch
	2.1	3.5	3.1
	1.98	3.86	3.46	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.03 ↓ (2.19)	3.71 ↓ (3.77)	3.28 ↑ (3)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 4.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lechia Gdańsk
46.2%

Draw
25.3%

Arka Gdynia
28.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

43.3%

25.1%

31.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.7%

25.5%

32%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lechia Gdańsk has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.9%)

Arka Gdynia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lechia Gdańsk than the current prediction. (-3.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Arka Gdynia than the current prediction. (+3.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
80%	6.7%	13.3%

Lechia Gdańsk - Arka Gdynia Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DNB - Lechia (1.54) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 1.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Lechia Gdańsk will win (12 of 15 users predict this - 80%).
Confidence interval (95%): 59.76% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Lechia Gdańsk will win (6 of 8 users predict this - 75%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 9 Selected Experts predict this event. Lechia (votes: 7 - 77.8%). Arka (votes: 1 - 11.1%). Tie (votes: 1 - 11.1%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Weirauch S. (G) 16. Jaunzems A. 15. Dyachuk M. 3. Olsson E. 27. Vojtko M. 11. Mena C. 10. Kapic R. (C) 5. Zhelizko I. 79. Sezonienko K. 89. Bobcek T. 7. Viunnyk B.	77. Weglarz D. (G) 2. Navarro M. 23. Hermoso K. 29. Marcjanik M. (C) 33. Abramowicz D. 37. Kerk S. 35. Jakubczyk K. 14. Vitalucci H. 9. Gaprindashvili T. 99. Espiau Hernandez E. D. 27. Oliveira J.
Substitutes
72. Awad M. 26. Brzek B. 21. Glogowski M. 81. Gutowski K. (G) 23. Kalahur M. 90. Kurminowski D. 99. Neugebauer T. 6. Wendt K. 33. Wojtowicz T.	18. Celestine J. 1. Grobelny J. (G) 11. Kocyla D. 10. Nguiamba A. 22. Percan 6. Perea L. 17. Predenkiewicz M. 8. Sidibe A. 32. Stolc P. 4. Zator D.
Coaches
Carver J.	Szwarga D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
28', Hermoso K. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
52', Jakubczyk K. 🟨,
62', Oliveira J. ↓, Sidibe A. ↑,
62', Vitalucci H. ↓, Kocyla D. ↑,
69', Mena C. 🟨,
70', Bobcek T. ↓, Kurminowski D. ↑,
70', Viunnyk B. ↓, Neugebauer T. ↑,
75', Kerk S. ↓, Nguiamba A. ↑,
75', Espiau Hernandez E. D. ↓, Percan ↑,
77', Sezonienko K. ↓, Awad M. ↑,
78', Percan 🟨,
85', 1 - 0, Kurminowski D. ⚽, Vojtko M. (A),
86', Kurminowski D. 🟨,
90+2', Kapic R. ↓, Glogowski M. ↑,

Preview

We will watch a tense game between outsiders (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation ~ Division 1 and 14).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Lechia won 2.

Lechia is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Arka has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Arka may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Lechia might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 11 head-to-head matches, Lechia won 7 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 20:13. (average 1.8:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Lechia won 5 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 14:8. (average 2.8:1.6).

Last Results with these Odds

Lechia Gdańsk - the odds 2.19 are the expected chance of winning is 43.27%, but this team recently wins 71% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Lechia Gdańsk
Polish Ekstraklasa
15.08.25	Zagłębie Lubin - Lechia Gdańsk	6:2 ✺
11.08.25	Lechia Gdańsk - Motor Lublin	3:3 ✺
03.08.25	Cracovia - Lechia Gdańsk	2:2 ✺
26.07.25	Lechia Gdańsk - Lech Poznań	3:4 ✺
20.07.25	Górnik Zabrze - Lechia Gdańsk	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.8 LTTLL
- Arka Gdynia
Polish Ekstraklasa
16.08.25	GKS Katowice - Arka Gdynia	4:1 ✺
09.08.25	Arka Gdynia - Pogoń Szczecin	2:1 ✺
03.08.25	Legia Warsaw - Arka Gdynia	0:0 ✺
25.07.25	Arka Gdynia - Radomiak Radom	1:1 ✺
20.07.25	Motor Lublin - Arka Gdynia	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11 LWTTL

Latest Head to Head

Polish Division 1
19.05.24	Lechia Gdańsk - Arka Gdynia	2:1
24.11.23	Arka Gdynia - Lechia Gdańsk	1:0
Polish Ekstraklasa
31.05.20	Lechia Gdańsk - Arka Gdynia	4:3
20.10.19	Arka Gdynia - Lechia Gdańsk	2:2
02.04.19	Arka Gdynia - Lechia Gdańsk	0:0
27.10.18	Lechia Gdańsk - Arka Gdynia	2:1
13.04.18	Arka Gdynia - Lechia Gdańsk	1:2

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