Match Info

POLAND: Ekstraklasa - Round 18

Date: 7 December 2024, Saturday

Location: Polsat Plus Arena (Gdansk)

Referee: Rzucidlo P. (Pol)

Where to Watch on TV:


Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 4, Moja TV
Croatia	Arena Sport 5, MAXtv To Go
Finland	Veikkaus TV
Poland	CANAL+ Sport 3, Canal+ Sport Online, Ekstraklasa TV
Ukraine	Kyivstar TV


	Lechia Gdańsk		Śląsk Wrocław

	1	X	2
	3.2	3.4	2.25	Watch
	3	3.3	2.25
	3.1	3.3	2.25	Watch
	3.24	3.36	2.31
	3.21	3.34	2.28	Watch
	2.8	3.3	2.25
	3.08	3.4	2.24	Watch
	3.1	3.3	2.25
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.09 ↑ (2.79)	3.34 ↑ (3.32)	2.26 ↓ (2.54)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lechia Gdańsk
30.4%

Draw
28.1%

Śląsk Wrocław
41.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34%

28.6%

37.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

33.2%

29.3%

38.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lechia Gdańsk has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.6%)

Śląsk Wrocław has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lechia Gdańsk than the current prediction. (+2.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Śląsk Wrocław than the current prediction. (-3.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
28.6%	28.6%	42.9%

Lechia Gdańsk - Śląsk Wrocław Predictions

Users Predictions: 14 users predict this event. Lechia will win (votes: 4 - 28.6%). Śląsk will win (votes: 6 - 42.9%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 28.6%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Śląsk: 17% – 68.8%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
29. Sarnavskyi B. (G) 11. Pila D. 44. Pllana B. 3. Olsson E. 23. Kalahur M. 8. Kapic R. 5. Zhelizko I. 17. Tsarenko A. 79. Sezonienko K. 9. Viunnyk B. 30. Khlan M.	12. Leszczynski R. (G) 78. Guercio T. 2. Paluszek A. 5. Petkov A. 4. Bejger L. 21. Baluta T. 16. Pokorny P. (C) 7. Samiec-Talar P. 17. Schwarz P. 23. Jasper S. 22. Zukowski M.
Substitutes
19. Buletsa S. 4. Chindris A. 16. D'Arrigo L. 94. Gueho L. 42. Kardas A. 99. Neugebauer T. 1. Weirauch S. (G) 6. Wendt K. 33. Wojtowicz T.	6. Gerstenstein L. 26. Ince B. 1. Loska T. (G) 33. Matsenko Y. 11. Musiolik S. 19. Ortiz A. 87. Petrov S. 10. Swierczok J. 3. Szota S.
Coaches
Carver J.	Hetel M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
35', Tsarenko A. 🟨,
41', 1 - 0, Viunnyk B. ⚽, Pila D. (A),
43', Samiec-Talar P. ↓, Musiolik S. ↑,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
47', Baluta T. 🟨,
55', Pokorny P. 🟨,
58', Baluta T. ↓, Ince B. ↑,
58', Jasper S. ↓, Ortiz A. ↑,
60', Petkov A. ↓, Petrov S. ↑,
62', Tsarenko A. ↓, Neugebauer T. ↑,
71', Pila D. 🟨,
76', Bejger L. ↓, Matsenko Y. ↑,
76', Viunnyk B. ↓, Wojtowicz T. ↑,
79', Guercio T. 🟨,
90', Kapic R. 🟨,
90+6', Khlan M. ↓, D'Arrigo L. ↑,
90+6', Kapic R. ↓, Wendt K. ↑,

Preview

This time only outsiders will meet in a game (ranked 17 in the zone Relegation ~ Division 1 and 18 in the zone Relegation ~ Division 1).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Lechia won 1.

Lechia is in poor shape (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Śląsk has a line of defeats in latest matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Lechia could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

The possibility to win in this match is almost balanced for both teams.

There will not play in Śląsk: Cebula M. (Injury) Glogowski B. (Injury) Poprawa K. (Injury)

There are questionable in Lechia: Brylowski B. (Knee Injury)

Last 20 head-to-head matches Lechia won 7 matches, drawn 9 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 27:20 (average 1.4:1).

Including matches at home between the teams Lechia won 5 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 14:5 (average 1.8:0.6).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Lechia Gdańsk
Polish Ekstraklasa
30.11.24	GKS Katowice - Lechia Gdańsk	2:0 ✺
23.11.24	Lechia Gdańsk - Pogoń Szczecin	0:3 ✺
09.11.24	Korona Kielce - Lechia Gdańsk	0:0 ✺
03.11.24	Lechia Gdańsk - Cracovia	1:2 ✺
25.10.24	Piast Gliwice - Lechia Gdańsk	3:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.2 LLTLT
- Śląsk Wrocław
Polish Cup
03.12.24	Śląsk Wrocław - Piast Gliwice	1:2 penalties ✺
Polish Ekstraklasa
30.11.24	Śląsk Wrocław - Puszcza Niepołomice	0:1 ✺
22.11.24	Jagiellonia Białystok - Śląsk Wrocław	2:2 ✺
09.11.24	Śląsk Wrocław - Górnik Zabrze	0:1 ✺
04.11.24	Zagłębie Lubin - Śląsk Wrocław	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.1 LLTLL

Latest Head to Head

Polish Ekstraklasa
19.07.24	Śląsk Wrocław - Lechia Gdańsk	1:1
01.04.23	Lechia Gdańsk - Śląsk Wrocław	0:0
10.09.22	Śląsk Wrocław - Lechia Gdańsk	2:1
05.02.22	Lechia Gdańsk - Śląsk Wrocław	2:0
08.08.21	Śląsk Wrocław - Lechia Gdańsk	1:1
10.04.21	Śląsk Wrocław - Lechia Gdańsk	1:1
20.11.20	Lechia Gdańsk - Śląsk Wrocław	3:2

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