Match Info

Nakotnes liga - Round 18

Date: 30 August 2025, Saturday


	Leevon PPK		Smiltene

	1	X	2
	2.2	3.8	2.45
	2.2	3.9	2.48
	1.49	4.80	4.81	Watch
	2.24	3.8	2.5
	1.99	3.3	2.24
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.02 ↓ (2.2)	3.92 ↑ (3.9)	2.9 ↑ (2.5)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.50

The best margin for this event is 8.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Leevon PPK
45.1%

Draw
23.3%

Smiltene
31.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40.9%

23.1%

36%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.9%

22%

34.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Leevon PPK has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.2%)

Smiltene has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Leevon PPK than the current prediction. (-2.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Smiltene than the current prediction. (+2.8%)

Leevon PPK - Smiltene Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +0.5 - Smiltene (1.55) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Smiltene (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Saulitis H. (G) 22. Baumanis R. 14. Cernovs A. 25. Kirkils G. (C) 21. Kravcenko K. 10. Liepins L. 97. Muiznieks R. 72. Ozols A. 17. Pelcis D. 99. Romenskis D. 16. Snegovs V.	95. Sausais D. (C) 4. Bleikss R. 10. Bokta M. 21. Cipruss S. 16. Gaismins V. 7. Lapins J. 3. Mikelsons M. 15. Sislakovs R. 77. Snepsts K. 88. Stipnieks E. 9. Zvirbulis K.
Substitutes
23. Hibsmanis V. 28. Lusis R. 7. Romenskis D. 1. Rumanis M. (G) 4. Trapucka D.	99. Eglitis E. (G) 2. Klots R. 42. Maurs-Boks E. 6. Rubnikovics T. 5. Spalvins M. 11. Tomass E.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
1', Kirkils G. ↓, Hibsmanis V. ↑,
10', 1 - 0, Kravcenko K. ⚽,
22', 🟨,
23', 2 - 0, Liepins L. ⚽,
32', Hibsmanis V. 🟥,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
47', 🟨,
51', 3 - 0, Baumanis R. ⚽,
65', 3 - 1, ⚽,
78', 🟨,
90+1', 🟨,
90+2', 3 - 2, ⚽,

Preview

Two mid-table teams will face off this time (ranked 9 and 8).

Leevon is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Smiltene's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Smiltene may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Leevon won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 8:2. (average 2.7:0.7).

Including home match between the teams, Leevon won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Leevon PPK
Latvian 1 Liga
22.08.25	Leevon PPK - Riga Mariners	2:3 ✺
10.08.25	Augšdaugavas - Leevon PPK	2:1 ✺
01.08.25	Leevon PPK - Tukums 2000 2	1:0 ✺
26.07.25	Ogre United - Leevon PPK	4:1 ✺
19.07.25	JFK Ventspils - Leevon PPK	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.2 LLWLT
- FK Smiltene BJSS
Latvian 1 Liga
23.08.25	Mārupe - Smiltene	0:3 ✺
09.08.25	Smiltene - Skanstes	1:2 ✺
01.08.25	Riga 2 - Smiltene	0:2 ✺
27.07.25	Smiltene - JDFS Alberts	2:4 ✺
20.07.25	Rīgas FS 2 - Smiltene	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.8 WLWLL

Latest Head to Head

Latvian 1 Liga
27.04.25	Smiltene - Leevon PPK	0:4
11.08.24	Leevon PPK - Smiltene	2:2
13.04.24	Smiltene - Leevon PPK	0:2

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