Match Info

Nakotnes liga - Round 14

Date: 26 July 2025, Saturday

Location: Ogres pilsētas ģimnāzija (Ogre)


	Ogre United		Leevon PPK

	1	X	2
	1.43	4.4	5.25
	1.45	4.45	5.15	Watch
	1.47	4.50	5.30	Watch
	1.41	4.25	6.48
	1.34	4.5	7.32
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.42 ↑ (1.34)	4.42 ↓ (4.5)	5.9 ↓ (7.32)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 9.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ogre United
64%

Draw
20.6%

Leevon PPK
15.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

67.5%

20.1%

12.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

69.2%

20.6%

12.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ogre United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.5%)

Leevon PPK has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ogre United than the current prediction. (+5.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Ogre United, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Leevon PPK than the current prediction. (-3.3%)

Ogre United - Leevon PPK Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
20. Biscuhis K. (G) 5. Hayashi K. 19. Jamonts K. 10. Kalnins M. 6. Karklins K. (C) 7. Kumakura K. 3. Marusiy T. 16. Mashchenko V. 9. Silagailis H. 22. Sprukulis K. 2. Ziemelis R.	12. Saulitis H. (G) 22. Baumanis R. 14. Cernovs A. 25. Kirkils G. (C) 21. Kravcenko K. 10. Liepins L. 97. Muiznieks R. 99. Romenskis D. 24. Strods D. 4. Trapucka D. 33. Treimanis N.
Substitutes
13. Gulbis K. 30. Hvoinickis D. 15. Licis K. 4. Mamich D. 1. Perkons E. (G) 21. Salins D. 8. Skujins R. 99. Unuigbeje E. 27. Veckagans M.	30. Harkins E. (G) 23. Hibsmanis V. 3. Jaunarajs-Janvaris R. 28. Lusis R. 7. Romenskis D. 27. Ulmis R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
10', 1 - 0, ⚽,
28', 🟨,
33', 2 - 0, ⚽,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
58', 2 - 1, ⚽,
63', 🟨,
72', 🟨,
73', 🟨,
75', 3 - 1, ⚽,
82', 🟨,
84', 🟨,
88', 🟨,
90', 🟨,
90+1', 🟨,
90+5', 🟨,
90+6', 4 - 1, ⚽,

Preview

Get ready for a battle between the top and the middle of the table (ranked 4 and 8).

In recent matches, Ogre United has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Leevon is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Leevon may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Ogre United is the undisputed favorite.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Ogre United won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 2:2. (average 0.7:0.7).

Including home match between the teams, Ogre United won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ogre United
Latvian 1 Liga
18.07.25	Ogre United - Mārupe	3:1 ✺
05.07.25	Skanstes - Ogre United	2:1 ✺
28.06.25	Ogre United - Riga 2	1:0 ✺
15.06.25	JDFS Alberts - Ogre United	2:2 ✺
Latvian Cup
31.05.25	Valmiera - Ogre United	4:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.7 WLWTL
- Leevon PPK
Latvian 1 Liga
19.07.25	JFK Ventspils - Leevon PPK	0:0 ✺
Latvian Cup
13.07.25	Leevon PPK - BFC Daugavpils	2:4 ✺
Latvian 1 Liga
06.07.25	Leevon PPK - Olaine	3:2 ✺
29.06.25	Leevon PPK - Rēzekne	6:2 ✺
Latvian Cup
21.06.25	Salaspils - Leevon PPK	4:5 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.7 TLWWW

Latest Head to Head

Latvian 1 Liga
28.03.25	Leevon PPK - Ogre United	0:1
23.08.24	Leevon PPK - Ogre United	1:1
28.04.24	Ogre United - Leevon PPK	0:1

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