Match Info
Nakotnes liga - Round 12Date: 4 July 2026, SaturdayWhere to Watch on TV: | |
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 Latvia | Futbols TV |
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Mārupe |
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Smiltene |
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1 |
X |
2 |
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 |
1.33 |
5.00 |
6.50 |
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 |
1.32 |
4.95 |
6.70 |
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 |
1.31 |
4.91 |
6.30 |
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 |
1.33 |
5.13 |
6.77 |
 Watch |
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1.28 |
4.80 |
6.15 |
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1.28 |
4.95 |
8.45 |
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Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.31 ↓
(1.33) |
4.96 ↑
(4.93) |
6.81 ↓
(7.03) |
|
- The most likely Over/Under: 3.25
- The best margin for this event is 9.5%, offered by
#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+ Current Win Probability
Mārupe
68.7% | Draw
18.1% | Smiltene
13.2% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Mārupe has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.2%)Smiltene has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.2%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Mārupe than the current prediction. (-11.6%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Mārupe that the model has picked up on.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Smiltene than the current prediction. (+2.4%)Mārupe - Smiltene Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0 
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Key Events of the Match
- 1st Half (0 - 1)
- 19', 0 - 1, Dumins E. ⚽,
- 2nd Half (2 - 0)
- 58', 1 - 1, Speks R. ⚽,
- 59', 2 - 1, Penka R. ⚽,
Preview
This match features a clash between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 7 and 13 in the zone Relegation).In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Mārupe won 3.Mārupe has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).Smiltene is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).Mārupe may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times. In this match, Mārupe is the obvious favorite.In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Mārupe won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 9:9. (average 1.5:1.5).Including home matches between the teams, Mārupe won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 6:8. (average 1.5:2).
Standings
| | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
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| 6 | Marupe | 21 | 9 | 2 | 10 | 34:32 | 2 | 29 |
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| 11 | FK Smiltene | 21 | 4 | 4 | 13 | 29:57 | -28 | 16 |
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Form
✺ - easy match;
✺ - difficult match;
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