Match Info

Ekstraklasa - Round 26

Date: 22 March 2026, Sunday

Location: Stadion Wojska Polskiego (Warsaw)

Referee: Kuzma L. (Pol)

Where to Watch on TV:


Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 4
Canada	beIN Connect
Croatia	Arena Sport 7, MAXtv To Go
Czech-republic	Strike, Strike
Finland	Veikkaus TV
Poland	CANAL+ 4K Ultra, CANAL+ Sport 3, Ekstraklasa TV
Usa	beIN Connect, Fanatiz, Tubi TV


	Legia Warsaw		Raków Częstochowa

	1	X	2
	2.05	3.3	3.25	Watch
	2.2	3.3	3.1
	2.15	3.25	3.15	Watch
	2.17	3.37	3.55
	2.15	3.41	3.47	Watch
	2.15	3.25	3.1
	2.08	3.45	3.57	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.14 ↓ (2.2)	3.33 ↑ (3.29)	3.31 ↑ (3.26)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Legia Warsaw
43.8%

Draw
28%

Raków Częstochowa
28.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.7%

28.6%

28.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.3%

28.2%

28.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Legia Warsaw has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.1%)

Raków Częstochowa has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Legia Warsaw than the current prediction. (-0.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Raków Częstochowa than the current prediction. (+0.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	18.7%	31.2%

Legia Warsaw - Raków Częstochowa Predictions

Users Predictions: 16 users predict this event. Legia will win (votes: 8 - 50%). Raków will win (votes: 5 - 31.3%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 18.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Legia: 25.5% – 74.5%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +0.25 - Raków (1.86) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Raków (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
89. Hindrich O. (G) 91. Piatkowski K. 8. Augustyniak R. (C) 12. Pankov R. 7. Wszolek P. 44. Szymanski D. 22. Elitim J. 23. Kun P. 21. Bichakhchyan V. 18. Nsame J. 9. Adamski R.	48. Zych O. (G) 24. Arsenic Z. (C) 25. Racovitan B. 2. Mosor A. 20. Silva J. C. 23. Struski K. 6. Repka O. 11. Adriano 80. Diaby-Fadiga L. 18. Brunes J. 39. Brusberg I.
Substitutes
6. Arreiol H. 11. Chodyna K. 55. Jedrzejczyk A. 99. Kovacik S. 77. Krasniqi E. 56. Leszczynski J. 29. Rajovic M. 13. Reca A. 1. Tobiasz K. (G) 82. Urbanski K. 53. Urbanski W. 20. Zewlakow J.	5. Bulat M. 27. Dawidowicz P. 35. Ilenic M. 10. Lopez I. 9. Makuch P. 44. Mircetic B. 17. Rocha L. 4. Svarnas S. 1. Trelowski K. (G) 29. Zolneczko W. (G)
Coaches
Papszun M.	Tomczyk L.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
6', 0 - 1, Diaby-Fadiga L. ⚽,
28', Brusberg I. ↓, Bulat M. ↑,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
49', Adriano 🟨,
53', Bulat M. 🟨,
59', Wszolek P. 🟨,
63', Diaby-Fadiga L. ↓, Lopez I. ↑,
63', Struski K. ↓, Dawidowicz P. ↑,
71', 1 - 1, Nsame J. (Penalty Awarded),
74', Wszolek P. ↓, Chodyna K. ↑,
74', Nsame J. ↓, Rajovic M. ↑,
82', Arsenic Z. ↓, Svarnas S. ↑,
83', Repka O. 🟨,
85', Bichakhchyan V. ↓, Urbanski K. ↑,
86', Kun P. ↓, Reca A. ↑,

Preview

Let's watch a game between a leader and an outsider (ranked 16 in the zone Relegation ~ Division 1 and 6).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Legia won 0.

Legia is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Raków has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Legia may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Legia might have a minor edge in this game.

There will not play in Legia: Colak A. (Inactive) Vinagre R. (Injury)

There will not play in Raków: Kochergin V. (Knee Injury) Otieno E. (Achilles Tendon Injury) Pienko T. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Raków: Tudor F. (Injury)

In the last 19 head-to-head matches, Legia won 7 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 27:27. (average 1.4:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Legia won 5 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 16:11. (average 1.8:1.2).

Outrights of Polish Ekstraklasa for now

Legia: 13.85%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Legia	9	5	4	0	19:8	11	19
18	Rakow	10	1	0	9	13:25	-12	3

Last Results with these Odds

Legia Warsaw - the odds 2.2 are the expected chance of winning is 42.67%, but this team recently wins 36% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Legia Warsaw
Polish Ekstraklasa
13.03.26	Radomiak Radom - Legia Warsaw	1:1 ✺
08.03.26	Legia Warsaw - Cracovia	1:0 ✺
01.03.26	Jagiellonia Białystok - Legia Warsaw	2:2 ✺
21.02.26	Legia Warsaw - Wisła Płock	2:1 ✺
13.02.26	GKS Katowice - Legia Warsaw	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.6 TWTWT
- Raków Częstochowa
UEFA Europa Conference League
19.03.26	Raków Częstochowa - Fiorentina	1:2 ✺
Polish Ekstraklasa
15.03.26	Górnik Zabrze - Raków Częstochowa	3:1 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
12.03.26	Fiorentina - Raków Częstochowa	2:1 ✺
Polish Ekstraklasa
08.03.26	Raków Częstochowa - Pogoń Szczecin	2:0 ✺
Polish Cup
05.03.26	Avia Świdnik - Raków Częstochowa	1:2 ET ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.1 LLLWW

Latest Head to Head

Polish Ekstraklasa
20.09.25	Raków Częstochowa - Legia Warsaw	1:1
16.03.25	Raków Częstochowa - Legia Warsaw	3:2
15.09.24	Legia Warsaw - Raków Częstochowa	0:1
13.04.24	Raków Częstochowa - Legia Warsaw	1:1
08.10.23	Legia Warsaw - Raków Częstochowa	1:2
Polish Super Cup
15.07.23	Raków Częstochowa - Legia Warsaw	0:1 penalties
Polish Cup
02.05.23	Legia Warsaw - Raków Częstochowa	1:0 penalties

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