Match Info

Ekstraklasa - Round 34

Date: 23 May 2026, Saturday

Location: Stadion Wojska Polskiego (Warsaw)

Referee: Przybyl J. (Pol)

Where to Watch on TV:


Canada	beIN Connect
Finland	Veikkaus TV
Poland	CANAL+ 360, CANAL+ Sport 3, Ekstraklasa TV, sport.tvp.pl, TVP Sport app, TVP Sport
Usa	beIN Connect, beIN Sports XTRA, Fanatiz


	Legia Warsaw		Motor Lublin

	1	X	2
	1.53	4.1	5	Watch
	1.57	4.33	5
	1.52	4.25	5.15	Watch
	1.54	4.54	5.57
	1.54	4.71	5.39	Watch
	1.53	4.2	4.8
	1.51	4.33	5.54	Watch
	1.55	4.1	5.3
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.54 ↓ (1.64)	4.32 ↑ (4.01)	5.22 ↑ (5.18)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 4.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Legia Warsaw
60.6%

Draw
21.6%

Motor Lublin
17.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

58%

23.7%

18.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

60.4%

22.8%

17.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Legia Warsaw has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.6%)

Motor Lublin has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Legia Warsaw than the current prediction. (-0.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Motor Lublin than the current prediction. (-0.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
81.8%	0%	18.2%

Legia Warsaw - Motor Lublin Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Legia (votes: 1 - 100%).

Users Predictions: Legia Warsaw will win (9 of 11 users predict this - 81.82%).
Confidence interval (95%): 59.03% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
89. Hindrich O. (G) 91. Piatkowski K. 8. Augustyniak R. 56. Leszczynski J. 11. Chodyna K. 67. Kapustka B. (C) 22. Elitim J. 19. Vinagre R. 20. Zewlakow J. 18. Nsame J. 9. Adamski R.	33. Tratnik G. (G) 29. Santos T. 39. Bartos M. 18. Najemski A. 24. Luberecki F. 6. Samper S. 30. Ndiaye M. 10. Karasek K. 68. Wolski B. (C) 11. Fabio Ronaldo 9. Czubak K.
Substitutes
6. Arreiol H. 14. Colak A. 55. Jedrzejczyk A. 99. Kovacik S. 77. Krasniqi E. 12. Pankov R. 29. Rajovic M. 44. Szymanski D. 1. Tobiasz K. (G) 82. Urbanski K. 53. Urbanski W.	77. Dadashov R. 42. Ede B. 23. Haxha F. 99. Kukulski P. (G) 21. Labojko J. 16. Lewandowski F. 3. Matthys H. 2. Meyer P. 8. Scalet M. 28. Stolarski P. 19. van Hoeven B. 17. Wojcik F.
Coaches
Papszun M.	Stolarski M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
7', Augustyniak R. 🟨,
30', Ndiaye M. 🟨,
32', 1 - 0, Nsame J. ⚽, Piatkowski K. (A),
39', 2 - 0, Chodyna K. ⚽, Elitim J. (A),
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Leszczynski J. ↓, Pankov R. ↑,
49', 3 - 0, Elitim J. ⚽, Adamski R. (A),
53', Bartos M. 🟨,
54', Fabio Ronaldo ↓, van Hoeven B. ↑,
54', Karasek K. ↓, Scalet M. ↑,
54', Samper S. ↓, Labojko J. ↑,
56', 4 - 0, Nsame J. ⚽,
65', Ndiaye M. ↓, Stolarski P. ↑,
70', Nsame J. ↓, Rajovic M. ↑,
70', Zewlakow J. ↓, Kovacik S. ↑,
74', Najemski A. ↓, Ede B. ↑,
77', Vinagre R. ↓, Jedrzejczyk A. ↑,
85', Hindrich O. ↓, Tobiasz K. ↑,

Preview

Two mid-table teams will face off this time (ranked 7 and 11).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Legia won 2.

Legia is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Motor has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

In this match, Legia is seen as the favorite.

There will not play in Legia: Bichakhchyan V. (Muscle Injury) Goncalves C. (Inactive) Rajovic M. (Injury) Reca A. (Injury) Stojanovic P. (Inactive) Wszolek P. (Injury)

There will not play in Motor: Brkic I. (Ribs Injury) Plichta K. (Inactive) Rodrigues I. (Yellow Cards)

We predict that Legia will win today's game, with odds of 1.54.

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Legia won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 17:10. (average 2.8:1.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Legia won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 11:5. (average 3.7:1.7).

Outrights of Polish Ekstraklasa for now

Legia: 15.77% Motor Lublin: 0.41%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Legia	9	5	4	0	19:8	11	19
16	Motor Lublin	9	1	3	5	9:15	-6	6

Last Results with these Odds

Legia Warsaw - the odds 1.64 are the expected chance of winning is 57.95%, but this team recently wins 86% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Legia Warsaw
Polish Ekstraklasa
17.05.26	Lechia Gdańsk - Legia Warsaw	1:2 ✺
10.05.26	Termalica Nieciecza - Legia Warsaw	0:1 ✺
01.05.26	Legia Warsaw - Widzew Łódź	1:0 ✺
26.04.26	Lech Poznań - Legia Warsaw	4:0 ✺
17.04.26	Legia Warsaw - Zagłębie Lubin	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10 WWWLW
- Motor Lublin
Polish Ekstraklasa
16.05.26	Motor Lublin - Cracovia	3:3 ✺
10.05.26	Wisła Płock - Motor Lublin	0:4 ✺
02.05.26	Motor Lublin - Lech Poznań	0:1 ✺
26.04.26	Widzew Łódź - Motor Lublin	2:0 ✺
17.04.26	GKS Katowice - Motor Lublin	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6 TWLLL

Latest Head to Head

Polish Ekstraklasa
01.12.25	Motor Lublin - Legia Warsaw	1:1
10.03.25	Motor Lublin - Legia Warsaw	3:3
01.09.24	Legia Warsaw - Motor Lublin	5:2
Club Friendly
10.12.22	Legia Warsaw - Motor Lublin	4:0
01.07.22	Legia Warsaw - Motor Lublin	2:3
Polish Cup
01.12.21	Motor Lublin - Legia Warsaw	1:2

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