Match Info

Ekstraklasa - Round 24

Date: 8 March 2026, Sunday

Location: Stadion Wojska Polskiego (Warsaw)

Referee: Gryckiewicz P. (Pol)

Where to Watch on TV:


Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 4
Canada	beIN Connect, beIN Sports XTRA Espanol
Croatia	Arena Sport 6, MAXtv To Go
Czech-republic	Strike, Strike
Finland	Veikkaus TV
Poland	CANAL+ 4K Ultra, CANAL+ Poland, CANAL+ Sport 3, Ekstraklasa TV, TVP Sport
Usa	beIN Connect, beIN Sports US XTRA Espanol, Fanatiz


	Legia Warsaw		Cracovia

	1	X	2
	1.75	3.3	4.5	Watch
	1.95	3.25	3.9
	1.85	3.35	4.15	Watch
	1.85	3.65	4.59
	1.84	3.63	4.4	Watch
	1.8	3.3	4.2
	1.79	3.44	4.93	Watch
	1.93	3.16	3.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.85 ↓ (1.93)	3.39 ↑ (3.16)	4.27 ↑ (3.5)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Legia Warsaw
50.6%

Draw
27.6%

Cracovia
21.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

46.2%

28.2%

25.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45.8%

28%

25.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Legia Warsaw has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.4%)

Cracovia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Legia Warsaw than the current prediction. (-4.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cracovia than the current prediction. (+3.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
82.4%	5.9%	11.8%

Legia Warsaw - Cracovia Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Legia (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - Legia (1.24) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 50%) .

O/U 1.5, 1st Half - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Legia Warsaw will win (14 of 17 users predict this - 82.35%).
Confidence interval (95%): 64.23% – 100%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Legia (votes: 4 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
89. Hindrich O. (G) 91. Piatkowski K. 8. Augustyniak R. 12. Pankov R. 11. Chodyna K. 67. Kapustka B. (C) 22. Elitim J. 23. Kun P. 21. Bichakhchyan V. 14. Colak A. 82. Urbanski K.	13. Madejski S. (G) 66. Wojcik O. 4. Henriksson G. 61. Traore B. 79. Pila D. 43. Klich M. (C) 6. Al Ammari A. 39. Perkovic M. 7. Praszelik M. 18. Zahiroleslam K. 17. Minchev M.
Substitutes
9. Adamski R. 55. Jedrzejczyk A. 99. Kovacik S. 77. Krasniqi E. 56. Leszczynski J. 18. Nsame J. 29. Rajovic M. 13. Reca A. 44. Szymanski D. 1. Tobiasz K. (G) 53. Urbanski W.	29. Batoum J. 10. Dominguez M. 15. Glik K. 91. Golonka K. (G) 14. Hasic A. 70. Kameri D. 20. Knap K. 27. Ravas H. (G) 11. Sans P. 5. Selan B. 21. Sutalo B. 19. Tabisz M.
Coaches
Papszun M.	Elsner L.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
24', Colak A. ↓, Rajovic M. ↑,
31', 1 - 0, Rajovic M. ⚽,
40', Wojcik O. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Henriksson G. ↓, Sutalo B. ↑,
57', Minchev M. 🟨,
58', Kapustka B. ↓, Szymanski D. ↑,
58', Bichakhchyan V. ↓, Adamski R. ↑,
59', Urbanski K. ↓, Krasniqi E. ↑,
59', Al Ammari A. ↓, Selan B. ↑,
59', Minchev M. ↓, Sans P. ↑,
65', Klich M. 🟨,
73', Zahiroleslam K. ↓, Kameri D. ↑,
75', Augustyniak R. 🟨,
80', Elitim J. ↓, Jedrzejczyk A. ↑,
83', Traore B. ↓, Hasic A. ↑,

Preview

This match will feature an outsider and one of the leaders (ranked 17 in the zone Relegation ~ Division 1 and 6).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Legia won 2.

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Legia may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Legia is seen as the favorite.

There will not play in Legia: Vinagre R. (Injury) Wszolek P. (Injury)

There will not play in Cracovia: Bogacz W. (Inactive) Charpentier G. (Inactive) Kakabadze O. (Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Legia won 8 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 20:23. (average 1:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Legia won 6 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 15:8. (average 1.5:0.8).

Outrights of Polish Ekstraklasa for now

Legia: 13.85% Cracovia: 0.83%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Legia	9	5	4	0	19:8	11	19
11	Cracovia	10	3	2	5	12:15	-3	11

Last Results with these Odds

Legia Warsaw - the odds 1.93 are the expected chance of winning is 46.25%, but this team recently wins 38% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Legia Warsaw
Polish Ekstraklasa
01.03.26	Jagiellonia Białystok - Legia Warsaw	2:2 ✺
21.02.26	Legia Warsaw - Wisła Płock	2:1 ✺
13.02.26	GKS Katowice - Legia Warsaw	1:1 ✺
07.02.26	Arka Gdynia - Legia Warsaw	2:2 ✺
01.02.26	Legia Warsaw - Korona Kielce	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.6 TWTTL
- Cracovia Krakow
Polish Ekstraklasa
27.02.26	Cracovia - Piast Gliwice	2:3 ✺
20.02.26	Widzew Łódź - Cracovia	0:0 ✺
14.02.26	Cracovia - Jagiellonia Białystok	0:0 ✺
06.02.26	Lechia Gdańsk - Cracovia	1:1 ✺
02.02.26	Termalica Nieciecza - Cracovia	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.3 LTTTW

Latest Head to Head

Polish Ekstraklasa
31.08.25	Cracovia - Legia Warsaw	2:1
18.05.25	Cracovia - Legia Warsaw	3:1
23.11.24	Legia Warsaw - Cracovia	3:2
20.12.23	Cracovia - Legia Warsaw	2:0
17.12.23	Legia Warsaw - Cracovia	2:0
12.02.23	Legia Warsaw - Cracovia	2:2
29.07.22	Cracovia - Legia Warsaw	3:0

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