Match Info

Ekstraklasa - Round 13

Date: 26 October 2025, Sunday

Location: Stadion Wojska Polskiego (Warsaw)

Referee: Lasyk P. (Pol)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	FOX Sports 3
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 3
Canada	beIN Connect
Croatia	Arena Sport 7, MAXtv To Go
Finland	Veikkaus TV
Poland	CANAL+ 4K Ultra, CANAL+ Sport 3, Ekstraklasa TV, TVP Sport app, TVP Sport
Ukraine	Sport 1, Sport 3
Usa	beIN Connect, Fanatiz, Tubi TV


	Legia Warsaw		Lech Poznań

	1	X	2
	2.05	3.8	3.3	Watch
	2.05	3.55	3.15	Watch
	2.11	3.78	3.32
	2.00	3.86	3.34	Watch
	2.09	3.52	3.21	Watch
	2.2	3.25	3.3
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.08 ↓ (2.11)	3.63 ↑ (3.08)	3.27 ↑ (3.12)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Legia Warsaw
45.2%

Draw
26%

Lech Poznań
28.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.3%

29%

28.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.4%

29.7%

27.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Legia Warsaw has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.9%)

Lech Poznań has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Legia Warsaw than the current prediction. (-1.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lech Poznań than the current prediction. (-0.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	30.8%	19.2%

Legia Warsaw - Lech Poznań Predictions

Users Predictions: 26 users predict this event. Legia will win (votes: 13 - 50%). Lech will win (votes: 5 - 19.2%). It will Tie (votes: 8 - 30.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Legia: 30.8% – 69.2%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Legia (votes: 1 - 25%). Tie (votes: 3 - 75%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Tobiasz K. (C) 7. Wszolek P. 12. Pankov R. 3. Kapuadi S. 19. Vinagre R. 67. Kapustka B. 8. Augustyniak R. 22. Elitim J. 21. Bichakhchyan V. 29. Rajovic M. 82. Urbanski K.	41. Mrozek B. (G) 2. Pereira J. 3. Douglas A. 16. Milic A. (C) 15. Gurgul M. 88. Ismaheel T. 43. Kozubal A. 6. Ouma T. 77. Palma L. 24. Jagiello F. 9. Ishak M.
Substitutes
4. Burch M. 5. Goncalves C. 55. Jedrzejczyk A. 27. Kobylak G. (G) 77. Krasniqi E. 13. Reca A. 30. Stojanovic P. 44. Szymanski D. 53. Urbanski W. 99. Weisshaupt N.	7. Agnero Y. 31. Bakowski K. (G) 14. Bengtsson L. 19. Fiabema B. 20. Gumny R. 56. Lisman K. 27. Monka W. 4. Moutinho J. 99. Rodriguez P. 72. Skrzypczak M. 23. Thordarson G.
Coaches
Iordanescu E.	Frederiksen N.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 0)
47', Pereira J. 🟨,
59', Bichakhchyan V. ↓, Stojanovic P. ↑,
63', Palma L. ↓, Bengtsson L. ↑,
68', Vinagre R. ↓, Goncalves C. ↑,
69', Elitim J. ↓, Reca A. ↑,
72', Jagiello F. ↓, Rodriguez P. ↑,
72', Ismaheel T. ↓, Lisman K. ↑,
77', Urbanski K. ↓, Weisshaupt N. ↑,
77', Augustyniak R. ↓, Szymanski D. ↑,
88', Ishak M. ↓, Agnero Y. ↑,
90', Milic A. 🟨,
90+1', Stojanovic P. 🟨,

Preview

Watch a clash between a mid-table side and a current leader (ranked 10 and 6).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Legia won 2.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Legia will hold a modest advantage in this match.

There will not play in Legia: Arreiol H. (Muscle Injury) Nsame J. (Achilles Tendon Injury) Piatkowski K. (Red Card)

There will not play in Lech: Gholizadeh A. (Thigh Injury) Hakans D. (Ankle Injury) Jagiello F. (Inactive) Murawski R. (Inactive) Walemark P. (Surgery)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Legia won 7 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 18:23. (average 0.9:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Legia won 4 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 9:7. (average 1.1:0.9).

Last Results with these Odds

Legia Warsaw - the odds 2.11 are the expected chance of winning is 42.35%, but this team recently wins 33% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Legia Warsaw
UEFA Europa Conference League
23.10.25	Shakhtar Donetsk - Legia Warsaw	1:2 ✺
Polish Ekstraklasa
19.10.25	Zagłębie Lubin - Legia Warsaw	3:1 ✺
05.10.25	Górnik Zabrze - Legia Warsaw	3:1 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
02.10.25	Legia Warsaw - Samsunspor	0:1 ✺
Polish Ekstraklasa
28.09.25	Legia Warsaw - Pogoń Szczecin	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11 WLLLW
- Lech Poznań
UEFA Europa Conference League
23.10.25	Lincoln Red Imps - Lech Poznań	2:1 ✺
Polish Ekstraklasa
19.10.25	Lech Poznań - Pogoń Szczecin	2:2 ✺
05.10.25	GKS Katowice - Lech Poznań	0:1 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
02.10.25	Lech Poznań - Rapid Wien	4:1 ✺
Polish Ekstraklasa
28.09.25	Lech Poznań - Jagiellonia Białystok	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.5 LTWWT

Latest Head to Head

Polish Super Cup
13.07.25	Lech Poznań - Legia Warsaw	1:2
Polish Ekstraklasa
11.05.25	Legia Warsaw - Lech Poznań	0:1
10.11.24	Lech Poznań - Legia Warsaw	5:2
12.05.24	Lech Poznań - Legia Warsaw	1:2
12.11.23	Legia Warsaw - Lech Poznań	0:0
16.04.23	Legia Warsaw - Lech Poznań	2:2
01.10.22	Lech Poznań - Legia Warsaw	0:0

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