Match Info
Tercera RFEF - Group 4 - Play Offs - FinalDate: 6 June 2026, Saturday
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Leioa |
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Derio |
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1 |
X |
2 |
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2.00 |
3.10 |
3.30 |
|
 |
1.68 |
3.25 |
4.00 |
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 |
2.13 |
3.09 |
3.44 |
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 |
2.17 |
2.97 |
3.45 |
 Watch |
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2.05 |
2.90 |
3.40 |
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 |
2.00 |
3.14 |
3.98 |
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1.65 |
3.15 |
3.9 |
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Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.95 ↑
(1.7) |
3.09 ↓
(3.25) |
3.64 ↓
(4) |
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- The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
- The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by
#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+ Current Win Probability
Leioa
46.1% | Draw
29.2% | Derio
24.7% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Leioa has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.2%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Leioa's form might have worsened.Derio has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.9%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Leioa than the current prediction. (+8.5%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Leioa, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Derio than the current prediction. (-4.2%)Leioa - Derio Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0 
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Key Events of the Match
- 1st Half (0 - 0)
- 2nd Half (1 - 0)
- 86', 1 - 0, ⚽,
Preview
First leg result: 1-0.In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Leioa won 3.Leioa is showing really good form (last 5 games: 3 wins).Derio has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins โ 2). Leioa might have a minor edge in this game.In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Leioa won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 5:3. (average 0.8:0.5).Including home matches between the teams, Leioa won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:2. (average 1:0.7).
Standings
| | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
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| 2 | Derio | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 7:2 | 5 | 11 |
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| 4 | Leioa | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 12:6 | 6 | 9 |
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Form
✺ - easy match;
✺ - difficult match;
Latest Head to Head
| Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 4 | | | 31.05.26 | Derio - Leioa | 0:1 | | 12.04.26 | Leioa - Derio | 0:0 | | 07.12.25 | Derio - Leioa | 1:0 | | 22.03.25 | Leioa - Derio | 2:1 | | 09.11.24 | Derio - Leioa | 0:1 | | 16.12.23 | Leioa - Derio | 1:1 |
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