Match Info

Tercera RFEF - Group 4 - Play Offs - Final

Date: 31 May 2026, Sunday


	Derio		Leioa

	1	X	2
	2.4	2.92	2.82
	2.55	2.96	3.19
	2.63	2.53	3.22	Watch
	2.45	2.9	2.8
	2.48	2.67	3.11
	2.55	3.05	2.45
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.51 ↓ (2.58)	2.84 ↓ (3.05)	2.93 ↑ (2.48)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Derio
36.5%

Draw
32.3%

Leioa
31.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34.6%

29.3%

36%

Our Initial ML Estimation

34.4%

29.5%

36.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Derio has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.9%)

Leioa has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Derio than the current prediction. (-2.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Leioa than the current prediction. (+5%)

Derio - Leioa Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 1)
81', 0 - 1, Goikoetxea M. ⚽,

Preview

First leg.

Derio is showing really good form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Leioa has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Leioa may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Derio won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 3:4. (average 0.6:0.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Derio won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:1. (average 0.5:0.5).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Derio	5	3	2	0	7:2	5	11
4	Leioa	5	2	3	0	12:6	6	9

Last Results with these Odds

Derio - the odds 2.58 are the expected chance of winning is 34.65%, but this team recently wins 71% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CD Derio
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 4
24.05.26	Derio - Lagun Onak	2:0 ET ✺
26.04.26	Alavés C - Derio	2:3 ✺
18.04.26	Derio - Aurrerá de Vitoria	1:1 ✺
12.04.26	Leioa - Derio	0:0 ✺
01.04.26	Derio - Eibar C	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.6 WWTTT
- SD Leioa
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 4
23.05.26	Leioa - Touring KE	2:3 ET ✺
16.05.26	Touring KE - Leioa	0:1 ✺
03.05.26	Deusto - Leioa	1:3 ✺
25.04.26	Leioa - Portugalete	1:1 ✺
19.04.26	San Ignacio - Leioa	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.7 LWWTT

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 4
12.04.26	Leioa - Derio	0:0
07.12.25	Derio - Leioa	1:0
22.03.25	Leioa - Derio	2:1
09.11.24	Derio - Leioa	0:1
16.12.23	Leioa - Derio	1:1

Derio - Leioa: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide