Match Info

Liga Portugal 2 - Round 5

Date: 6 September 2026, Sunday

Location: Estádio do Mar (Matosinhos)

Referee: Filipe L. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Leixões		Amarante

	1	X	2
	1.95	3.20	3.50
	1.98	3.10	3.40
	1.80	3.30	3.85
	2.13	3.52	3.71
	1.92	3.51	3.87	Watch
	2.03	3.45	3.55
	2.00	3.36	3.63
	1.99	3.20	3.55
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.98 ↑ (1.81)	3.33 ↓ (3.45)	3.63 ↓ (3.91)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Leixões
46.8%

Draw
27.8%

Amarante
25.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50.4%

26.4%

23.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52.5%

25.3%

22.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Leixões has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.6%)

Amarante has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Leixões than the current prediction. (+5.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Leixões, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Amarante than the current prediction. (-3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
75%	25%	0%

Leixões - Amarante Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Leixões will win (votes: 3 - 75%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 25%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Simao (G) 77. Paulinho (C) 4. Matheus Costa 3. Figueiredo L. 30. Serif N. 7. Agra S. 6. Balde A. 22. Araujo C. 10. Barbosa R. 33. Luccas Paraizo 35. Rochez B.	65. Didi (G) 3. Mendes F. 4. Filipe J. (C) 2. Cunha G. 28. Pereira D. 26. Zangre A. 88. Alves R. 5. Joao Ricardo 85. Nito 10. Costa M. 20. Machado L.
Substitutes
14. Alysson 17. Arthur Baggio 26. Caio (G) 21. De Armas A. 63. Faria H. 2. Fonseca F. 71. Kaique 8. Miguel Sousa 88. Pina R. 44. Semeu 15. Simaozinho 51. Stefanovic I. (G)	91. Almeida R. 14. Arome 15. Beirao R. 9. Cardoso F. 51. Fernandes D. (G) 1. Flores R. (G) 6. Guedes R. 36. Ian Custodio 23. Ikugar K. 12. Lawrence 78. Silva B. 8. Tokinho Doria
Coaches
Fangueiro C.	Pinto J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
6', Figueiredo L. 🟨,
8', 1 - 0, Araujo C. ⚽,
41', Luccas Paraizo 🟨,
45+2', Agra S. 🟨,
45+6', 2 - 0, Luccas Paraizo ⚽, Barbosa R. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Joao Ricardo ↓, Ian Custodio ↑,
46', Pereira D. ↓, Silva B. ↑,
46', Simao ↓, Stefanovic I. ↑,
52', 3 - 0, Rochez B. ⚽, Araujo C. (A),
59', Alves R. ↓, Almeida R. ↑,
59', Costa M. ↓, Arome ↑,
60', Almeida R. 🟨,
64', 3 - 1, Silva B. ⚽,
73', Cunha G. (Penalty Awarded),
74', Figueiredo L. ↓, Semeu ↑,
78', Mendes F. 🟨,
79', Luccas Paraizo ↓, Pina R. ↑,
79', Agra S. ↓, Kaique ↑,
79', Filipe J. ↓, Tokinho Doria ↑,
90+1', Serif N. 🟨,
90+2', Barbosa R. ↓, Faria H. ↑,

Preview

Recent performances by Leixões have been up and down (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Amarante is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Amarante may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Leixões is seen as the favorite.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Leixões won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 5:2. (average 2.5:1).

Including home match between the teams, Leixões won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:1.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
8	Leixoes	6	3	1	2	8:6	2	10
15	Amarante	6	1	2	3	5:8	-3	5

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Leixões SC
Portuguese Liga 2
29.08.26	Portimonense - Leixões	0:2 ✺
22.08.26	Leixões - Leiria	2:4 ✺
16.08.26	Leixões - Tondela	1:0 ✺
10.08.26	Benfica B - Leixões	1:0 ✺
Club Friendly
01.08.26	Leixões - Casa Pia	6:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.3 WLWLW
- Amarante FC
Portuguese Liga 2
30.08.26	Amarante - Benfica B	1:0 ✺
22.08.26	Vizela - Amarante	0:0 ✺
16.08.26	Amarante - Lusitânia	0:1 ✺
08.08.26	Tondela - Amarante	2:1 ✺
Club Friendly
01.08.26	Moreirense - Amarante	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.8 WTLLL

Latest Head to Head

Taça de Portugal
19.10.25	Amarante - Leixões	1:2 ET
21.10.18	Leixões - Amarante	3:1

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