Match Info

Liga Portugal 2 - Round 5

Date: 13 September 2025, Saturday

Location: Estádio do Mar (Matosinhos)

Referee: Carvalho H. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Sport TV4


	Leixões		Farense

	1	X	2
	2.55	3	2.75
	2.37	3.1	2.6
	2.52	3.1	2.78
	2.61	3.18	2.94
	2.55	2.98	2.93	Watch
	2.57	3.16	2.78
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.53 ↓ (2.81)	3.09 ↓ (3.15)	2.8 ↑ (2.44)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Leixões
36.7%

Draw
30.1%

Farense
33.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

32.9%

29.3%

37.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.6%

29%

38.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Leixões has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.8%)

Farense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Leixões than the current prediction. (-4.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Farense than the current prediction. (+5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
71.4%	28.6%	0%

Leixões - Farense Predictions

Users Predictions: 7 users predict this event. Leixões will win (votes: 5 - 71.4%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 28.6%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Leixões (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Farense (1.99) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Leixões (votes: 2 - 50%). Farense (votes: 1 - 25%). Tie (votes: 1 - 25%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Morro M. (G) 11. Agra S. 3. Figueiredo L. 4. Rafael Santos 15. Simaozinho 18. Kanuric B. 8. Neto 88. Yahaya A. 22. Araujo C. 10. Paulite 91. Valente R. (C)	99. Araujo B. (G) 3. D'Agrella L. 5. Romero F. 4. Alysson 34. Herrero T. 80. Ndiaye A. 29. Claudio Falcao 88. Teixeira R. 77. Matias M. (C) 90. Sangare B. 21. Jaiminho
Substitutes
9. Bica 13. Evrard Zag 68. Goncalves A. 5. Naldo 6. Paulinho 35. Rochez B. 30. Serif N. 51. Stefanovic I. (G) 7. Werton	17. Candeias A. 6. Derick Poloni 25. Dorregaray D. 35. Furtado D. 16. Geovanny 23. Gjorgjev N. 8. Menino M. 20. Semedo Y. 30. Tannander J. (G)
Coaches
Fonseca J. N.	Silas

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
38', Kanuric B. ↓, Werton ↑,
40', Alysson 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
59', Sangare B. ↓, Derick Poloni ↑,
59', Paulite ↓, Bica ↑,
59', Yahaya A. ↓, Serif N. ↑,
66', Jaiminho ↓, Dorregaray D. ↑,
66', Ndiaye A. ↓, Semedo Y. ↑,
72', 0 - 1, Dorregaray D. ⚽,
75', Matias M. 🟨,
77', Teixeira R. ↓, Menino M. ↑,
77', D'Agrella L. ↓, Furtado D. ↑,
78', Araujo C. ↓, Paulinho ↑,
78', Valente R. ↓, Rochez B. ↑,
79', Menino M. 🟨,
83', Claudio Falcao 🟨,
90', Paulinho 🟨,
90+3', 0 - 2, Derick Poloni ⚽, Dorregaray D. (A),

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Leixões won 3.

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In the last 16 head-to-head matches, Leixões won 4 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 14:21. (average 0.9:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Leixões won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 11:9. (average 1.4:1.1).

Last Results with these Odds

Leixões - the odds 2.81 are the expected chance of winning is 32.85%, but this team recently wins 10% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Leixões SC
Portuguese Liga 2
30.08.25	Feirense - Leixões	2:0 ✺
24.08.25	Leixões - Penafiel	3:2 ✺
17.08.25	Benfica B - Leixões	1:1 ✺
10.08.25	Leixões - Felgueiras	3:0 ✺
Club Friendly
30.07.25	Leixões - Chaves	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10 LWTWL
- SC Farense
Portuguese Liga 2
31.08.25	Farense - Marítimo	0:2 ✺
24.08.25	Porto B - Farense	0:2 ✺
17.08.25	Farense - Torreense	0:3 ✺
11.08.25	Oliveirense - Farense	1:1 ✺
Club Friendly
03.08.25	Farense - Estrela da Amadora	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.5 LWLTW

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 2
05.03.23	Farense - Leixões	1:0
Taça de Portugal
09.11.22	Leixões - Farense	3:1
Portuguese Liga 2
11.09.22	Leixões - Farense	0:1
17.01.22	Farense - Leixões	0:1
10.08.21	Leixões - Farense	3:1
09.03.20	Leixões - Farense	1:1
27.10.19	Farense - Leixões	1:0

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