Match Info

Liga Portugal 2 - Round 16

Date: 16 November 2025, Sunday

Location: Estádio do Mar (Matosinhos)

Referee: Vasilica I. (Por)


	Leixões		Chaves

	1	X	2
	2.9	3	2.25
	3.1	3.05	2.3
	3.44	3.04	2.46
	3.11	3.13	2.26	Watch
	3.2	3.02	2.33
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.15 ↑ (3.11)	3.05 ↓ (3.13)	2.32 ↑ (2.26)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Leixões
29.5%

Draw
30.5%

Chaves
40%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

29.7%

29.5%

40.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

31.9%

27.5%

38%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Leixões has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.2%)

Chaves has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Leixões than the current prediction. (+2.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Chaves than the current prediction. (-2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
20%	0%	80%

Leixões - Chaves Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Leixões will win (votes: 1 - 20%). Chaves will win (votes: 4 - 80%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Chaves (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
51. Stefanovic I. (C) 77. Paulinho 3. Figueiredo L. 5. Naldo 30. Serif N. 11. Agra S. 13. Evrard Zag 6. Paulinho 7. Werton 91. Valente R. 9. Bica	23. Gudzulic M. (G) 4. Bruno Rodrigues 34. Alves R. 29. Tounkara M. 15. Carraca (C) 8. Pinho P. 30. Kusso D. 77. Reinaldo 21. Wellington Carvalho 9. Milovanovic U. 97. Joao Teixeira
Substitutes
22. Araujo C. 18. Kanuric B. 1. Morro M. (G) 8. Neto 10. Paulite 4. Rafael Santos 35. Rochez B. 15. Simaozinho 88. Yahaya A.	71. Joao Pedro 20. Ktatau 7. Paulo Victor 18. Pereira H. 94. Pereira T. (G) 17. Roberto 26. Rodrigues G. 33. Simoes T. 19. Tiago Almeida
Coaches
Valente F.	Martins F.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
4', 0 - 1, Naldo (Own goal),
12', Bruno Rodrigues 🟨,
31', Joao Teixeira 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
57', Wellington Carvalho ↓, Pereira H. ↑,
58', Carraca ↓, Tiago Almeida ↑,
66', Kusso D. 🟨,
67', Joao Teixeira ↓, Ktatau ↑,
68', Valente R. ↓, Rochez B. ↑,
68', Paulinho ↓, Neto ↑,
78', Werton ↓, Paulite ↑,
78', Serif N. ↓, Araujo C. ↑,
84', Milovanovic U. ↓, Roberto ↑,
85', Tounkara M. ↓, Simoes T. ↑,
85', 🟨,
88', Bica 🟨,
89', Agra S. ↓, Rafael Santos ↑,

Preview

Two mid-table teams will face off this time (ranked 9 and 8).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Leixões won 0.

Leixões has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Chaves has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Chaves may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Chaves could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 16 head-to-head matches, Leixões won 1 match, drew 6 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 10:23. (average 0.6:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Leixões won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 5:8. (average 0.7:1.1).

Last Results with these Odds

Leixões - the odds 3.11 are the expected chance of winning is 29.68%, but this team recently wins 0% of matches with these odds.

Chaves - the odds 2.26 are the expected chance of winning is 40.84%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Leixões SC
Portuguese Liga 2
09.11.25	Leixões - Torreense	1:0 ✺
03.11.25	Paços de Ferreira - Leixões	3:1 ✺
30.10.25	Leixões - Académico de Viseu	1:5 ✺
25.10.25	Leiria - Leixões	1:3 ✺
Taça de Portugal
19.10.25	Amarante - Leixões	1:2 ET ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.4 WLLWW
- Desportivo Chaves
Portuguese Liga 2
08.11.25	Chaves - Porto B	0:1 ✺
03.11.25	Leiria - Chaves	2:1 ✺
25.10.25	Académico de Viseu - Chaves	1:0 ✺
Taça de Portugal
17.10.25	Chaves - Benfica	0:2 ✺
Portuguese Liga 2
04.10.25	Chaves - Vizela	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.4 LLLLW

Latest Head to Head

Club Friendly
30.07.25	Leixões - Chaves	0:1
Portuguese Liga 2
25.01.25	Leixões - Chaves	0:0
18.08.24	Chaves - Leixões	0:0
Club Friendly
31.07.24	Chaves - Leixões	3:3
Portuguese Liga 2
24.01.22	Leixões - Chaves	1:1
16.08.21	Chaves - Leixões	1:1
15.05.21	Chaves - Leixões	3:1

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