Match Info

Liga de Expansion MX - Apertura - Round 6

Date: 30 August 2026, Sunday

Location: Estadio Jalisco (Guadalajara)

Referee: Ortiz Leon J. C. (Mex)

Where to Watch on TV:


Mexico	AYM Sports
Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Leones Negros UdeG		Piratas de Veracruz

	1	X	2
	2.25	3.10	2.80
	2.32	3.05	2.9	Watch
	2.29	3.24	3.41
	2.27	3.24	3.16	Watch
	2.25	3.15	3.25
	2.23	3.27	3.17
	2.15	3.15	3
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.25 ↓ (2.83)	3.17 ↑ (3.08)	3.1 ↑ (2.43)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Leones Negros UdeG
41%

Draw
29.1%

Piratas de Veracruz
29.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

32.5%

29.8%

37.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.7%

29.6%

37.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Leones Negros UdeG has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Leones Negros UdeG's performance.

Piratas de Veracruz has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Piratas de Veracruz might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Leones Negros UdeG than the current prediction. (-8.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Leones Negros UdeG that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Piratas de Veracruz than the current prediction. (+7.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Piratas de Veracruz could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Leones Negros UdeG - Piratas de Veracruz Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Cantu Rodriguez O. M. (G) 161. Escalante J. 21. Gonzalez O. 24. Aguayo J. 5. Torres U. 20. Gil O. 28. De Jesus Bravo Santiago A. 6. Marchand J. (C) 34. Hernandez S. A. 9. Razo L. 10. Brigido J.	20. Hernandez H. (C) 6. Cruz D. 4. Lopez A. 14. Gonzalez R. 15. Palomares R. 7. Soto O. 16. Fernandez C. 8. Figueroa B. 28. Gamboa J. 9. Garcia F. 10. Lopez G.
Substitutes
15. Carreon A. 35. Cazares J. 19. Loera K. 12. Martin S. (G) 27. Meza U. 154. Morales F. 167. Nuno M. 11. Perez J. 33. Sepulveda L. 31. Valenzuela M.	26. Clemente J. 19. Doumbouya I. 18. Enciso A. 30. Hidalgo R. C. 3. Jaime Sanchez K. Y. 2. Mantilla A. 17. Ochoa E. 1. Sanchez D. (G) 13. Sanchez D. 21. Vargas E.
Coaches
Sosa A.	Garcia M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
12', Palomares R. 🟨,
23', 1 - 0, Soto O. (Own goal),
42', Torres U. 🟨,
43', Aguayo J. 🟨,
45+1', 1 - 1, Soto O. (Penalty Awarded),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
57', Torres U. 🟨,
61', Gil O. ↓, Sepulveda L. ↑,
61', Brigido J. ↓, Perez J. ↑,
71', Garcia F. ↓, Doumbouya I. ↑,
72', Lopez G. ↓, Clemente J. ↑,
82', Razo L. ↓, Cazares J. ↑,
82', De Jesus Bravo Santiago A. ↓, Carreon A. ↑,
86', Hernandez S. A. ↓, Loera K. ↑,
87', Fernandez C. ↓, Enciso A. ↑,
87', Gonzalez R. ↓, Jaime Sanchez K. Y. ↑,
90+3', Gamboa J. ↓, Ochoa E. ↑,

Preview

This match features a clash between the league leader and a mid-table team (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga de Expansion MX (Apertura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 8 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga de Expansion MX (Apertura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

Leones Negros UdeG is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).

In recent matches, Piratas has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Piratas may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

Recently, the teams have not faced each other.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Leones Negros	11	7	2	2	27:16	11	23
5	Piratas	11	5	3	3	16:10	6	18

Last Results with these Odds

Leones Negros UdeG - the odds 2.83 are the expected chance of winning is 32.5%, but this team recently wins 14% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Leones Negros UdeG
Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
22.08.26	Alacranes de Durango - Leones Negros UdeG	1:2 ✺
16.08.26	Leones Negros UdeG - Jaiba Brava	4:0 ✺
06.08.26	Leones Negros UdeG - Correcaminos UAT	1:3 ✺
01.08.26	Cancún - Leones Negros UdeG	0:2 ✺
25.07.26	Tlaxcala - Leones Negros UdeG	2:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 26.1 WWLWW
- Piratas de Veracruz
Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
22.08.26	Piratas de Veracruz - Cancún	0:1 ✺
14.08.26	Atlético La Paz - Piratas de Veracruz	2:0 ✺
07.08.26	Alacranes de Durango - Piratas de Veracruz	0:3 ✺
01.08.26	Piratas de Veracruz - Atlético Morelia	1:0 ✺
25.07.26	Jaiba Brava - Piratas de Veracruz	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.9 LLWWT

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