Match Info

Conference League - Qualification - Final

Date: 21 August 2025, Thursday 🏁 Finished

Location: National Stadium Vasil Levski (Sofia) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Bognar T. (Hun)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Bulgaria	21:00	Diema Sport
Netherlands	20:00	Ziggo Sport 2


	Levski Sofia		AZ Alkmaar

	1	X	2
	3.25	3.3	2.1	Watch
	4.2	3.7	1.7
	3.35	3.15	2.12	Watch
	3.49	3.35	2.2
	4.42	3.72	1.70	Watch
	3.56	3.45	2.12	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.71 ↓ (4.42)	3.45 ↓ (3.72)	1.99 ↑ (1.7)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Levski Sofia
25.4%

Draw
27.3%

AZ Alkmaar
47.3%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

20.9%

24.8%

54.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

20.3%

24%

56%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Levski Sofia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.5%)

AZ Alkmaar has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and AZ Alkmaar might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Levski Sofia than the current prediction. (-5.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Levski Sofia that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for AZ Alkmaar than the current prediction. (+8.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that AZ Alkmaar could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
15.8%	15.8%	68.4%

Levski Sofia - AZ Alkmaar Predictions

Users Predictions: 38 users predict this event. Levski will win (votes: 6 - 15.8%). AZ will win (votes: 26 - 68.4%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 15.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for AZ: 53.6% – 83.2%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 15 Selected Experts predict this event. Levski (votes: 1 - 6.7%). AZ (votes: 11 - 73.3%). Tie (votes: 3 - 20%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 1.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +0.5 - Levski (1.74) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DNB - AZ (1.47) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 17 Selected Experts predict this event. Levski (votes: 2 - 11.8%). AZ (votes: 12 - 70.6%). Tie (votes: 3 - 17.6%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
92. Vutsov S. (G) 21. Neves A. 50. Dimitrov K. 4. Makoun C. 3. Maicon 18. Trdin G. 37. Rildo 10. Mitkov A. 88. Petkov M. (C) 17. Everton Bala 99. Kirilov R.	1. Owusu-Oduro R. (G) 30. Kasius D. 3. Goes W. 5. Penetra 34. de Wit M. 8. Clasie J. (C) 26. Smit K. 6. Koopmeiners P. 11. Sadiq I. 9. Parrott T. 17. Jensen I.
Substitutes
95. Fabien K. 7. Fabio Lima 71. Kamdem O. 78. Lukov M. (G) 23. Myslovic P. 8. Ohene C. 77. Rupanov B. 31. Serafimov N. 22. Soula M. 6. Tsunami 1. Vladimirov O. (G)	28. Buurmeester Z. 15. Chavez Garcia M. 4. Dekker M. 22. Dijkstra E. 63. Hartog J. 21. Kwakman D. 35. Meerdink M. 23. van Duijl B. 60. van Duijn S. 12. Verhulst H. (G) 41. Zoet J. (G)
Coaches
Velazquez J.	Martens M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
24', Rildo 🟨,
44', Jensen I. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
46', Rildo ↓, Rupanov B. ↑,
56', 0 - 1, Sadiq I. ⚽, Jensen I. (A),
58', Mitkov A. ↓, Ohene C. ↑,
62', 0 - 2, Parrott T. ⚽,
66', Sadiq I. 🟨,
71', Petkov M. ↓, Soula M. ↑,
71', Jensen I. ↓, Meerdink M. ↑,
83', Kirilov R. ↓, Fabien K. ↑,
83', Clasie J. ↓, Kwakman D. ↑,
83', Sadiq I. ↓, Hartog J. ↑,
90+5', Dimitrov K. 🟨,
90+5', Hartog J. 🟨,

Preview

1st leg. Playing home matches at a different stadium - National Stadium Vasil Levski.

Levski has shown excellent form with a series of wins in recent matches (last 5 games: 4 wins).

AZ is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

In this match, AZ is a strong favorite.

Recently, there has been no match between the teams.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Levski Sofia
Bulgarian Parva Liga
17.08.25	Botev Vratsa - Levski Sofia	0:0 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
14.08.25	Sabah - Levski Sofia	0:2 ✺
Bulgarian Parva Liga
10.08.25	Levski Sofia - Spartak Varna	2:1 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
07.08.25	Levski Sofia - Sabah	1:0 ✺
Bulgarian Parva Liga
03.08.25	Levski Sofia - Slavia Sofia	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.7 TWWWW
- AZ Alkmaar
Dutch Eredivisie
17.08.25	Volendam - AZ Alkmaar	2:2 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
14.08.25	Vaduz - AZ Alkmaar	0:1 ✺
Dutch Eredivisie
10.08.25	AZ Alkmaar - Groningen	4:1 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
07.08.25	AZ Alkmaar - Vaduz	3:0 ✺
Club Friendly
03.08.25	AZ Alkmaar - OFI	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.8 TWWWT

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