Probabilities (fivethirtyeight.com)
| team | position | project points | now | relegated | qualify for ucl | win league |
| Ajax | 1 (100%) | 83 | 83 | 0% | 100% | 100% |
| PSV Eindhoven | 2 (100%) | 81 | 81 | 0% | 100% | 0% |
| Feyenoord | 3 (100%) | 71 | 71 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Twente | 4 (100%) | 68 | 68 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| AZ Alkmaar | 5 (100%) | 61 | 61 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Vitesse | 6 (100%) | 51 | 51 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Utrecht | 7 (100%) | 47 | 47 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Heerenveen | 8 (100%) | 41 | 41 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Cambuur | 9 (100%) | 39 | 39 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Waalwijk | 10 (100%) | 38 | 38 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| NEC Nijmegen | 11 (100%) | 38 | 38 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Go Ahead Eagles | 13 (100%) | 36 | 36 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Groningen | 12 (100%) | 36 | 36 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Sparta Rotterdam | 14 (100%) | 35 | 35 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Fortuna Sittard | 15 (100%) | 35 | 35 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Heracles Almelo | 16 (100%) | 34 | 34 | >99% | 0% | 0% |
| Willem II | 17 (100%) | 33 | 33 | 100% | 0% | 0% |
| Zwolle | 18 (100%) | 27 | 27 | 100% | 0% | 0% |
