Match Info

Eredivisie - Round 9

Date: 18 October 2025, Saturday

Location: Johan Cruijff Arena (Amsterdam)

Referee: Manschot J. (Ned)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	DStv Now, SupeSport ESPN 1
Albania	SuperSport 4
Argentina	Disney+, ESPN 4
Austria	DAZN
Belgium	Play Sports 1, Play Sports 4
Brazil	Disney+
Bulgaria	Ring, Voyo
Chile	Disney+
Colombia	Disney+
Croatia	SportKlub 1
Cyprus	Cablenet Sports 3, Cablenet Sports 3
France	DAZN France
Georgia	Silk Universal
Germany	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN Deutsch, Sportdigital FUSSBALL
Greece	Nova Sports 2
Hong-kong	myTV SUPER
Israel	Sport 2
Italy	Como TV
Kenya	Gotv
Mexico	Disney+, ESPN 2
Netherlands	Canal+, ESPN 2, ESPN Extra
Nigeria	SupeSport ESPN 1
North-central-america	Disney+ Caribbean, ESPN 2 Caribbean
North-macedonia	MaxTV GO
Peru	Disney+
Poland	Polsat Sport Premium 2
Portugal	DAZN 2
Romania	Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 5
Russia	TV Start
Serbia	Arena Sport 2
Slovakia	Arena sport 1, Sport TV2
South-africa	SupeSport ESPN
South-america	ESPN 4 South
Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland, Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
Turkey	S Sport+, Tivibu Spor 3
United-kingdom	Amazon Prime Video, Premier Sports Player
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	ESPN App, ESPN+
Venezuela	Disney+, Inter
World	Triller TV+


	Ajax		AZ Alkmaar

	1	X	2
	2.05	3.9	3.3	Watch
	2.08	3.7	3.35
	2.09	3.81	3.44
	2.12	3.75	3.08	Watch
	2.09	3.83	3.31	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.09 ↑ (1.91)	3.8 ↓ (4)	3.3 ↓ (3.61)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 3.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ajax
45.8%

Draw
25.2%

AZ Alkmaar
29%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

49.8%

23.8%

26.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

49.8%

23.8%

26.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ajax has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4%)

AZ Alkmaar has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ajax than the current prediction. (+4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for AZ Alkmaar than the current prediction. (-2.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
73.7%	21.1%	5.3%

Ajax - AZ Alkmaar Predictions

Users Predictions: 19 users predict this event. Ajax will win (votes: 14 - 73.7%). AZ will win (votes: 1 - 5.3%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 21.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Ajax: 53.9% – 93.5%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 3 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Ajax will win (3 of 4 users predict this - 75%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Jaros V. (G) 3. Gaaei A. 37. Sutalo J. 15. Baas Y. 2. Rosa L. 24. Mokio J. 8. Taylor K. (C) 17. Edvardsen O. 10. Gloukh O. 11. Godts M. 25. Weghorst W.	1. Owusu-Oduro R. (G) 30. Kasius D. 3. Goes W. 5. Penetra 34. de Wit M. 6. Koopmeiners P. 10. Mijnans S. (C) 26. Smit K. 7. Weslley Patati 9. Parrott T. 17. Jensen I.
Substitutes
41. Alders G. 43. Bounida R. 30. Bouwman A. 28. Fitz-Jim K. 4. Itakura K. 18. Klaassen D. 16. McConnell J. 7. Moro R. 66. Nash P. 22. Pasveer R. (G) 6. Regeer Y. 52. Reverson P. (G)	15. Chavez Garcia M. 27. Daal R. 4. Dekker M. 22. Dijkstra E. 21. Kwakman D. 11. Sadiq I. 33. Sin M. 12. Verhulst H. (G) 25. Zeefuik L. 41. Zoet J. (G)
Coaches
Heitinga J.	Martens M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
21', de Wit M. 🟨,
25', 0 - 1, Weslley Patati ⚽,
42', 0 - 2, Parrott T. (Pen),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
52', Gaaei A. 🟨,
58', Mokio J. ↓, Klaassen D. ↑,
59', Klaassen D. 🟨,
70', Gloukh O. ↓, McConnell J. ↑,
70', Edvardsen O. ↓, Moro R. ↑,
72', Baas Y. 🟨,
73', Parrott T. ↓, Sadiq I. ↑,
73', de Wit M. ↓, Chavez Garcia M. ↑,
73', Weslley Patati ↓, Sin M. ↑,
78', Gaaei A. ↓, Alders G. ↑,
78', Godts M. ↓, Bounida R. ↑,
83', Koopmeiners P. 🟨,
89', Weghorst W. 🟨,
90+1', Jensen I. ↓, Zeefuik L. ↑,

Preview

One of the most interesting matches of the day, featuring two top-table teams (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: ) and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Europa League (Qualification: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ajax won 0.

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Ajax is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

There will not play in Ajax: Dolberg K. (Abdominal strain) Regeer Y. (Muscle Injury) Wijndal O. (Muscle Injury) van den Boomen B. (Back Injury)

There will not play in AZ: Clasie J. (Inactive) Maikuma S. (Knee Injury) Meerdink M. (Injury)

There are questionable in Ajax: Itakura K. (Injury) Konadu D. (Inactive)

There are questionable in AZ: Jensen I. (Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Ajax won 8 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 30:22. (average 1.5:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Ajax won 4 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 18:9. (average 2:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ajax Amsterdam
Dutch Eredivisie
04.10.25	Sparta Rotterdam - Ajax	3:3 ✺
UEFA Champions League
30.09.25	Olympique Marseille - Ajax	4:0 ✺
Dutch Eredivisie
27.09.25	Ajax - NAC Breda	2:1 ✺
21.09.25	PSV Eindhoven - Ajax	2:2 ✺
UEFA Champions League
17.09.25	Ajax - Inter Milan	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.9 TLWTL
- AZ Alkmaar
Dutch Eredivisie
05.10.25	AZ Alkmaar - Telstar	2:1 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
02.10.25	AEK Larnaca - AZ Alkmaar	4:0 ✺
Dutch Eredivisie
28.09.25	NEC Nijmegen - AZ Alkmaar	2:1 ✺
24.09.25	AZ Alkmaar - Zwolle	2:2 ✺
21.09.25	AZ Alkmaar - Feyenoord	3:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.4 WLLTT

Latest Head to Head

Dutch Eredivisie
16.03.25	Ajax - AZ Alkmaar	2:2
Dutch KNVB Beker
14.01.25	AZ Alkmaar - Ajax	2:0
Dutch Eredivisie
08.12.24	AZ Alkmaar - Ajax	2:1
25.02.24	AZ Alkmaar - Ajax	2:0
08.10.23	Ajax - AZ Alkmaar	1:2
06.05.23	Ajax - AZ Alkmaar	0:0
18.09.22	AZ Alkmaar - Ajax	2:1

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