Match Info

MALTA: Challenge League - Round 10

Date: 22 December 2024, Sunday

Location: Centenary Stadium (Ta' Qali)


	Lija Athletic		Santa Lucia

	1	X	2
	3	3.4	2
	3.1	3.5	2.04	Watch
	2.97	3.72	2
	3.07	3.72	2.03
	3.36	3.44	1.96
	3.1	3.5	2.04
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.1 ↓ (4.04)	3.55 ↑ (3.43)	2.01 ↑ (1.79)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 8.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lija Athletic
29.3%

Draw
25.6%

Santa Lucia
45.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

22.6%

26.6%

50.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

22.2%

26.1%

51.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lija Athletic has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Lija Athletic's performance.

Santa Lucia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Santa Lucia might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lija Athletic than the current prediction. (-7.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Lija Athletic that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Santa Lucia than the current prediction. (+6.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Santa Lucia could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Lija Athletic - Santa Lucia Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Bonnici L. (C) 5. Azzopardi A. 83. Briffa S. 3. Camilleri J. 11. Costa R. 2. Giordimaina C. 27. Hernandez A. 15. Jovanoski J. 8. Mifsud M. 10. Scerri K. 9. Winchester R.	13. Farrugia C. (G) 23. Bajada J. 27. Borg A. 10. Cloth J. 42. Hanan B. 21. Mangion D. 8. Ojo T. 9. Salis I. 6. Sixsmith J. 74. Vella A. 16. Vella M. (C)
Substitutes
99. Amhamed A. 77. Curmi K. 21. Fenech M. 19. Grech L. 16. Joyce G. 66. Khatib O. 1. Mallia J. 33. Sciberras B. 24. Zammit L.	14. Bajada J. 7. Ihuomah B. 2. Polidano J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
16', Giordimaina C. 🟨,
26', Cloth J. (Pen),
32', Scerri K. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
53', Costa R. 🟨,
68', Cloth J. 🟨,
79', Jovanoski J. 🟨,
80', 0 - 1, Cloth J. ⚽,
81', Scerri K. ↓, Sciberras B. ↑,
81', Hernandez A. ↓, Khatib O. ↑,
82', Costa R. ↓, Joyce G. ↑,
84', Winchester R. 🟨,
89', Camilleri J. 🟨,

Preview

The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 15 in the zone Challenge League (Relegation Group: ) and 10 in the zone Challenge League (Relegation Group: )).

Lija is in poor shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Santa Lucia is in a first-class shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Santa Lucia could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Santa Lucia is a favorite.

Last 2 head-to-head matches Lija won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 5:4 (average 2.5:2).

Including matches at home between the teams Lija won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 3:1

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Lija Athletic
Maltese Challenge League
14.12.24	Żurrieq - Lija Athletic	1:1 ✺
01.12.24	Swieqi United - Lija Athletic	3:1 ✺
23.11.24	Lija Athletic - Marsa	1:3 ✺
03.11.24	Mtarfa - Lija Athletic	2:1 ✺
27.10.24	Lija Athletic - St. Andrews	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.6 TLLLW
- Santa Lucia FC
Maltese Challenge League
15.12.24	Santa Lucia - Sirens	2:1 ✺
Maltese FA Trophy
07.12.24	Sirens - Santa Lucia	3:1 ✺
Maltese Challenge League
30.11.24	Mtarfa - Santa Lucia	0:3 ✺
24.11.24	Santa Lucia - St. Andrews	2:0 ✺
02.11.24	Żebbuġ Rangers - Santa Lucia	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 19.9 WLWWW

Latest Head to Head

Maltese Premier League
06.03.21	Lija Athletic - Santa Lucia	3:1
20.11.20	Santa Lucia - Lija Athletic	3:2

Lija Athletic - Santa Lucia: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide