Match Info

Liga AUF Uruguaya - Play Offs - Semi-finals

Date: 16 November 2025, Sunday

Location: Estadio Belvedere (Montevideo)

Referee: Matonte Cabrera A. M. (Uru)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+
Brazil	Disney+
Mexico	Disney+
Peru	Disney+
South-america	Gol TV Latinoamerica, Gol TV Latinoamerica
Uruguay	Disney+, VTV+
Usa	Fanatiz
Venezuela	Disney+, Inter


	Liverpool Montevideo		Peñarol de Montevideo

	1	X	2
	4.1	3.25	1.9	Watch
	3.8	3.25	1.9
	4.13	3.51	1.95
	3.76	3.74	1.86	Watch
	4.05	3.41	1.89	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.97 ↑ (3.88)	3.43 ↓ (3.46)	1.9 (1.9)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Liverpool Montevideo
23.6%

Draw
27.2%

Peñarol de Montevideo
49.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

24%

26.9%

49%

Our Initial ML Estimation

24.1%

27.1%

48.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Liverpool Montevideo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.4%)

Peñarol de Montevideo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Liverpool Montevideo than the current prediction. (+0.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Peñarol de Montevideo than the current prediction. (-0.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	0%	100%

Liverpool Montevideo - Peñarol de Montevideo Predictions

Users Predictions: Peñarol de Montevideo will win (8 of 8 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Peñarol de Montevideo will win (5 of 5 users predict this - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
21. Lentinelly S. (C) 24. Amaro K. 2. Rea M. 23. Castillo E. 3. Suarez L. 16. Acosta L. 20. Rabunal M. 8. Napoli G. 11. Castro M. 10. Hernandez A. 7. Vallejo N.	12. Cortes B. (G) 20. Milans P. 23. Mendez J. 34. Herrera N. 15. Olivera M. (C) 24. Jesus Trindade 29. Remedi E. 5. Sosa I. 10. Fernandez L. 11. Silvera M. 19. Arezo M.
Substitutes
32. Bregante F. 5. Catarozzi F. 29. de Mello G. 19. Forclaz E. 9. Machado R. 25. Marquez E. (G) 6. Milano S. 4. Perdomo F. 17. Soria N. 31. Wasilewsky L.	28. Baez J. 25. Campana M. (G) 55. Couture L. 50. Garcia Cardozo D. G. 17. Gularte E. 27. Lucas Hernandez 30. Muhlethaler S. 6. Rodriguez K. 21. Silva G. 32. Umpierrez L.
Coaches
Papa J.	Aguirre D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
5', Castillo E. 🟨,
36', Amaro K. 🟨,
44', Rabunal M. 🟨,
45+2', Herrera N. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
53', Castillo E. 🟨,
57', Castro M. ↓, Milano S. ↑,
61', Remedi E. 🟨,
65', Remedi E. ↓, Umpierrez L. ↑,
73', Acosta L. ↓, Catarozzi F. ↑,
77', Mendez J. 🟨,
78', Milans P. 🟨,
85', Silvera M. ↓, Garcia Cardozo D. G. ↑,
90+1', Amaro K. ↓, Perdomo F. ↑,
90+5', Suarez L. 🟨,
Extra Time (1 - 2)
91', Milans P. ↓, Muhlethaler S. ↑,
92', 1 - 0, Hernandez A. ⚽,
96', Mendez J. ↓, Lucas Hernandez ↑,
102', Napoli G. ↓, Wasilewsky L. ↑,
102', Vallejo N. ↓, Bregante F. ↑,
102', Hernandez A. ↓, Machado R. ↑,
102', Sosa I. ↓, Baez J. ↑,
102', Herrera N. ↓, Gularte E. ↑,
103', 1 - 1, Garcia Cardozo D. G. ⚽,
114', Rea M. 🟨,
114', Catarozzi F. 🟨,
115', 1 - 2, Fernandez L. (Pen),
120', Fernandez L. 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Liverpool won 2.

Liverpool has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Peñarol is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Liverpool may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Peñarol is a strong favorite.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Liverpool won 8 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 26:25. (average 1.3:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Liverpool won 4 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 15:12. (average 1.5:1.2).

Last Results with these Odds

Peñarol de Montevideo - the odds 1.9 are the expected chance of winning is 49.05%, but this team recently wins 60% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Liverpool Montevideo
Uruguayan Primera Division
07.11.25	Cerro Largo - Liverpool Montevideo	2:0 ✺
01.11.25	Liverpool Montevideo - Juventud de Las Piedras	0:1 ✺
26.10.25	Liverpool Montevideo - Progreso	3:1 ✺
20.10.25	Plaza Colonia - Liverpool Montevideo	0:1 ✺
11.10.25	Liverpool Montevideo - Racing Montevideo	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5 LLWWT
- Peñarol de Montevideo
Uruguayan Primera Division
09.11.25	Montevideo City Torque - Peñarol de Montevideo	0:2 ✺
02.11.25	Peñarol de Montevideo - Defensor Sporting	2:1 ✺
Uruguay Copa
29.10.25	Peñarol de Montevideo - Plaza Colonia	2:0 ✺
Uruguayan Primera Division
25.10.25	Cerro - Peñarol de Montevideo	2:0 ✺
19.10.25	Peñarol de Montevideo - Montevideo Wanderers	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.6 WWWLW

Latest Head to Head

Uruguayan Primera Division
13.09.25	Liverpool Montevideo - Peñarol de Montevideo	2:2
Uruguay Copa
10.09.25	Peñarol de Montevideo - Liverpool Montevideo	2:1
Uruguayan Primera Division
19.06.25	Liverpool Montevideo - Peñarol de Montevideo	3:2
20.03.25	Peñarol de Montevideo - Liverpool Montevideo	0:3
09.11.24	Peñarol de Montevideo - Liverpool Montevideo	2:0
03.05.24	Liverpool Montevideo - Peñarol de Montevideo	2:2
Uruguay Copa
12.02.24	Peñarol de Montevideo - Liverpool Montevideo	3:1

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