Match Info

Cymru South - Round 5

Date: 28 August 2026, Friday


	Llanelli		Carmarthen Town

	1	X	2
	3.45	3.75	1.78
	3.50	4.06	1.79
	3.69	4.02	1.82
	3.45	4.00	1.76
	3.72	3.88	1.74
	3.40	3.80	1.77
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.54 ↑ (3.24)	3.92 ↓ (3.98)	1.78 ↓ (1.83)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Llanelli
25.7%

Draw
23.2%

Carmarthen Town
51.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

27.9%

22.7%

49.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

28.3%

22.4%

48.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Llanelli has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.2%)

Carmarthen Town has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Llanelli than the current prediction. (+2.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Carmarthen Town than the current prediction. (-2.4%)

Llanelli - Carmarthen Town Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
2nd Half (0 - 1)

Preview

An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 15 and 4).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Llanelli won 3.

Llanelli is going through a poor run of results (last 5 games: 0 wins).

In recent matches, Carmarthen Town has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Recently, Carmarthen Town has had a series of home games.

Carmarthen Town could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 15 head-to-head matches, Llanelli won 6 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 25:25. (average 1.7:1.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Llanelli won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 12:13. (average 1.7:1.9).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
6	Carmarthen Town	9	4	2	3	20:19	1	14
16	Llanelli	10	0	2	8	7:27	-20	2

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Llanelli
Welsh Cymru South
22.08.26	Cardiff Draconians - Llanelli	4:2 ✺
15.08.26	Pure Swansea - Llanelli	3:0 ✺
07.08.26	Llanelli - Trethomas Bluebirds	1:1 ✺
31.07.26	Llanelli - Newport City	1:4 ✺
Club Friendly
25.07.26	Haverfordwest County - Llanelli	8:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.8 LLTLL
- Carmarthen Town
Welsh Cymru South
22.08.26	Carmarthen Town - Treowen Stars	2:4 ✺
14.08.26	Carmarthen Town - Afan Lido	3:1 ✺
01.08.26	Carmarthen Town - Caerau Ely	4:3 ✺
Club Friendly
14.07.26	Carmarthen Town - Briton Ferry Llansawel	2:3 ✺
07.07.26	Carmarthen Town - Cardiff Metropolitan	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.9 LWWLL

Latest Head to Head

Welsh Cymru South
30.11.24	Carmarthen Town - Llanelli	1:1
16.08.24	Llanelli - Carmarthen Town	1:1
16.03.24	Carmarthen Town - Llanelli	0:1
18.08.23	Llanelli - Carmarthen Town	4:3
Club Friendly
01.07.23	Carmarthen Town - Llanelli	1:6
Welsh Cymru South
11.02.23	Carmarthen Town - Llanelli	1:3
04.11.22	Llanelli - Carmarthen Town	0:3

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