Match Info

Cymru South - Round 1

Date: 1 August 2026, Saturday


	Carmarthen Town		Caerau Ely

	1	X	2
	2.98	3.45	2.05
	3.08	3.53	2.07
	2.93	3.61	2.18
	3.00	3.45	2.04
	3.12	3.74	2.08
	2.95	3.45	2.05
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.01 ↑ (2.97)	3.54 ↑ (3.45)	2.08 ↑ (2.07)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Carmarthen Town
30.3%

Draw
25.8%

Caerau Ely
43.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

30.3%

26.1%

43.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

The chances for Carmarthen Town have remained the same compared to the initial analysis.

Caerau Ely has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.3%)

Carmarthen Town - Caerau Ely Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
45+2', Jenkins R. 🟥,
45+3', Griffiths D. (Penalty Awarded),
2nd Half (4 - 3)
50', 1 - 0, Thomas L. (Penalty Awarded),
58', 2 - 0, ⚽,
69', 3 - 0, Thomas L. ⚽,
72', 3 - 1, Bishop L. ⚽,
75', 3 - 2, Fowler V. ⚽,
88', 3 - 3, Griffiths D. ⚽,
90', 4 - 3, Reed L. ⚽,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Carmarthen Town won 2.

Caerau is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Carmarthen Town won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 14:9. (average 2.3:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Carmarthen Town won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:2. (average 1.3:0.7).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Caerau Ely	9	5	1	3	21:18	3	16
6	Carmarthen Town	9	4	2	3	20:19	1	14

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Carmarthen Town
Club Friendly
14.07.26	Carmarthen Town - Briton Ferry Llansawel	2:3 ✺
07.07.26	Carmarthen Town - Cardiff Metropolitan	1:3 ✺
03.07.26	Carmarthen Town - Trefelin	4:2 ✺
Welsh Cymru South
18.04.26	Treowen Stars - Carmarthen Town	4:1 ✺
04.04.26	Carmarthen Town - Pontypridd United	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.7 LLWLL
- Caerau Ely
Club Friendly
03.07.26	Caerau Ely - Croesyceiliog	5:1 ✺
30.06.26	Caerau Ely - Cardiff Corries	0:0 ✺
Welsh Cymru South
18.04.26	Pontypridd United - Caerau Ely	0:0 ✺
04.04.26	Caerau Ely - Ynyshir Albions	2:0 ✺
28.03.26	Llantwit Major - Caerau Ely	1:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.3 WTTWW

Latest Head to Head

Welsh Cymru South
21.02.26	Caerau Ely - Carmarthen Town	3:4
28.11.25	Carmarthen Town - Caerau Ely	1:1
25.01.25	Carmarthen Town - Caerau Ely	2:0
06.08.24	Caerau Ely - Carmarthen Town	2:2
10.02.24	Carmarthen Town - Caerau Ely	1:1
22.09.23	Caerau Ely - Carmarthen Town	2:4

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