Match Info

COLOMBIA: Primera A - Apertura - Round 9

Date: 16 March 2025, Sunday

Location: Estadio Bello Horizonte (Villavicencio)

Referee: Delgado L. (Col)

Where to Watch on TV:


Colombia	Win+ Futbol, Win play
Mexico	VIX+, ViX Premium
South-america	ViX Latin America


	Llaneros SA		Junior Barranquilla

	1	X	2
	3.3	3.3	2.2	Watch
	3.7	3.25	1.93
	3.35	3.15	2.24	Watch
	3.32	3.2	2.25
	3.45	3.09	2.22	Watch
	3.7	3.25	2
	3.42	3.13	2.21	Watch
	3.35	3.15	2.24
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.45 ↑ (2.57)	3.19 ↑ (3.05)	2.16 ↓ (2.85)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 5.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Llaneros SA
27.2%

Draw
29.4%

Junior Barranquilla
43.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36.4%

30.7%

32.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.4%

31.6%

31.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Llaneros SA has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Llaneros SA's form might have worsened.

Junior Barranquilla has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Junior Barranquilla's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Llaneros SA than the current prediction. (+10.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Llaneros SA, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Junior Barranquilla than the current prediction. (-11.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Junior Barranquilla, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	57.1%	42.9%

Llaneros SA - Junior Barranquilla Predictions

Users Predictions: 7 users predict this event. Junior will win (votes: 3 - 42.9%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 57.1%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Armesto K. (G) 33. Lasso J. 20. Angulo J. 15. Valencia C. 31. Montes G. 10. Uruena B. 14. Sierra C. 6. Sierra M. 27. Mosquera D. 9. Rangel M. 11. Espinal F.	77. Mele S. (G) 15. Mosquera Moreno Y. 66. Baez C. 5. Rivera D. 34. Guerrero J. 8. Chara Y. 6. Moreno D. 99. Enamorado J. 9. Paiva G. 88. Castrillon B. 70. Bacca C.
Substitutes
19. Churi B. 80. Hinojosa R. 8. Lopez A. 23. Mina Chara J. E. 45. Quinones D. 22. Romana Garavito R. (G) 70. Valencia K.	80. Angel Bernal F. S. 20. Caicedo D. 19. Cantillo C. 29. Gutierrez T. 3. Herrera E. 30. Martinez J. (G) 23. Rodriguez S.
Coaches
Garcia J.	Farias Acosta C. A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
16', Moreno D. 🟨,
16', Valencia C. 🟥,
20', Mosquera D. 🟨,
22', Sierra M. ↓, Mina Chara J. E. ↑,
26', Rivera D. 🟨,
36', 0 - 1, Castrillon B. ⚽, Bacca C. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Mosquera Moreno Y. ↓, Herrera E. ↑,
58', Baez C. 🟥,
61', Espinal F. ↓, Churi B. ↑,
61', Rangel M. ↓, Valencia K. ↑,
62', Castrillon B. ↓, Angel Bernal F. S. ↑,
62', Bacca C. ↓, Caicedo D. ↑,
71', Paiva G. ↓, Gutierrez T. ↑,
79', Mosquera D. ↓, Quinones D. ↑,
80', Sierra C. ↓, Hinojosa R. ↑,
80', Enamorado J. ↓, Rodriguez S. ↑,

Preview

During this match we will watch a battle between a team from the middle of a tournament table and a leader (ranked 14 and 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Primera A (Apertura ~ Quadrangular: )).

Llaneros SA is in awful shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recent matches Junior is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Llaneros SA could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Junior will have a small advantage in this match.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Last Results with these Odds

Junior Barranquilla - the odds 2.85 are the expected chance of winning is 32.81%, but this team recently wins 43% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Llaneros Fútbol Club SA
Colombian Primera A
08.03.25	Deportivo Pasto - Llaneros SA	1:0 ✺
04.03.25	Llaneros SA - Deportivo La Equidad	1:0 ✺
27.02.25	Independiente Medellín - Llaneros SA	3:0 ✺
18.02.25	Llaneros SA - Deportivo Cali	0:1 ✺
11.02.25	Llaneros SA - Millonarios	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.9 LWLLT
- Junior Barranquilla
Colombian Primera A
09.03.25	Junior Barranquilla - Millonarios	2:1 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
06.03.25	Junior Barranquilla - América de Cali	2:3 penalties ✺
Colombian Primera A
01.03.25	Atlético Bucaramanga - Junior Barranquilla	1:1 ✺
24.02.25	Junior Barranquilla - Envigado	1:2 ✺
18.02.25	Boyacá Chicó - Junior Barranquilla	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.2 WLTLW

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