Match Info

Primera A - Apertura - Round 15

Date: 30 April 2025, Wednesday

Location: Estadio Bello Horizonte (Villavicencio)

Referee: Mayorga Londono J. A. (Col)

Where to Watch on TV:


Colombia	Win+ Futbol, Win play
South-america	RCN Nuestra Tele Internacional, ViX Latin America
Usa	Fanatiz


	Llaneros SA		Independiente Santa Fe

	1	X	2
	2.6	3.1	2.8	Watch
	2.6	2.85	2.7
	2.75	2.95	2.8	Watch
	2.75	2.92	2.91
	2.75	2.91	2.8	Watch
	2.7	2.75	2.8
	2.77	2.88	2.8	Watch
	2.75	2.95	2.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.71 ↓ (3.35)	2.91 ↓ (3.4)	2.8 ↑ (2.02)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Llaneros SA
34.5%

Draw
32.1%

Independiente Santa Fe
33.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

27.4%

27%

45.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

26%

25.6%

48%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Llaneros SA has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Llaneros SA's performance.

Independiente Santa Fe has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-12.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Independiente Santa Fe might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Llaneros SA than the current prediction. (-8.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Llaneros SA that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Independiente Santa Fe than the current prediction. (+14.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Independiente Santa Fe could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
20%	40%	40%

Llaneros SA - Independiente Santa Fe Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Llaneros SA will win (votes: 1 - 11.1%). Santa Fe will win (votes: 4 - 44.4%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 44.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Santa Fe: 11.9% – 76.9%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH 0 - Llaneros SA (1.84) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Llaneros SA (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Armesto K. (G) 4. Mojica A. 20. Angulo J. 15. Valencia C. 33. Lasso J. 14. Sierra C. 5. Restrepo E. 8. Lopez A. 10. Uruena B. (C) 19. Churi B. 99. Rangel M.	1. Mosquera A. (G) 5. Melendez J. 3. Moreno V. 15. Scarpeta Silgado I. R. 24. Angulo J. 14. Torres J. 16. Torres D. 20. Velasquez Y. 27. Perlaza Perea Y. A. 11. Rodallega H. (C) 10. Zapata A.
Substitutes
11. Espinal F. 18. Medina M. 27. Mosquera D. 22. Romana Garavito R. (G) 6. Sierra M. 70. Valencia K. 30. Vega O.	35. Andrades J. (G) 28. Lopez E. 32. Mafla C. 31. Molina T. 23. Mosquera H. 18. Olivera E. 9. Rodriguez A.
Coaches
Garcia J.	Bava J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
28', Lopez A. 🟨,
35', Moreno V. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Torres J. ↓, Lopez E. ↑,
53', Velasquez Y. 🟨,
63', Zapata A. ↓, Mosquera H. ↑,
63', Velasquez Y. ↓, Molina T. ↑,
64', 0 - 1, Torres D. ⚽, Rodallega H. (A),
72', Torres D. 🟨,
76', Lopez A. ↓, Espinal F. ↑,
81', Perlaza Perea Y. A. ↓, Mafla C. ↑,
83', Churi B. ↓, Valencia K. ↑,
90', Rodallega H. ↓, Rodriguez A. ↑,
90+6', Rodriguez A. 🟨,

Preview

Let's watch a game between leader and an outsider (ranked 16 and 7 in the zone Promotion ~ Primera A (Apertura ~ Quadrangular: )).

One and the other team get a very uncertain game.

Santa Fe could have physical problems compared to their opponent - in recent days, they have played more matches than their opponents.

In this match, the chances to achieve triumph for both teams are almost equal.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Llaneros Fútbol Club SA
Colombian Primera A
17.04.25	Fortaleza CEIF - Llaneros SA	1:0 ✺
11.04.25	Llaneros SA - Alianza Valledupar	0:1 ✺
06.04.25	Rionegro Águilas - Llaneros SA	1:2 ✺
01.04.25	Llaneros SA - Deportivo Pereira	2:1 ✺
27.03.25	Once Caldas - Llaneros SA	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16 LLWWL
- Independiente Santa Fe
Colombian Primera A
27.04.25	Independiente Santa Fe - Boyacá Chicó	0:0 ✺
14.04.25	Independiente Santa Fe - Independiente Medellín	1:2 ✺
10.04.25	Deportivo La Equidad - Independiente Santa Fe	2:1 ✺
04.04.25	Independiente Santa Fe - Deportivo Pasto	1:1 ✺
30.03.25	Unión Magdalena - Independiente Santa Fe	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.5 TLLTW

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