Match Info

Jupiler Pro League - Relegation - Quarter-finals

Date: 23 April 2026, Thursday

Location: Soevereinstadion (Lommel)

Where to Watch on TV:


Belgium	Sporza, Sporza


	Lommel		RFC Liège

	1	X	2
	1.8	3.6	3.9	Watch
	1.85	3.7	3.95
	1.84	3.76	4.22
	1.79	3.89	4.02	Watch
	1.8	3.4	3.75
	1.77	3.54	3.97
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.81 ↑ (1.65)	3.65 ↓ (3.89)	3.97 ↓ (4.47)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 4.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lommel
51.2%

Draw
25.4%

RFC Liège
23.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

55.8%

23.6%

20.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

59.3%

25.1%

19.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lommel has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.6%)

RFC Liège has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lommel than the current prediction. (+8.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Lommel, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for RFC Liège than the current prediction. (-4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
80%	10%	10%

Lommel - RFC Liège Predictions

Users Predictions: Lommel will win (8 of 9 users predict this - 88.89%).
Confidence interval (95%): 68.36% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
23. Pieklak M. (G) 9. van Duiven J. 13. Banguera Riascos J. A. 5. Wouters D. 79. De Grand S. 14. Tolinsson J. 18. Lopez L. 6. Pelupessy J. 10. Reyners T. 15. Schoofs L. (C) 30. Seuntjens R.	1. Andre A. (G) 2. Wasinski M. 5. Ngawa P. 4. Bustin J. 25. D'Ostilio J. (C) 13. Mouchamps D. 28. Wilmots R. 24. De Sart A. 7. Bruggeman B. 15. Arslan A. 16. N'jo E.
Substitutes
3. Eyoma T. 1. Ivezic N. (G) 34. Oware H. 73. Reumers A. 8. Rommens N. 98. Salah M. 93. Vancsa Z. 65. Vandecraen E. 11. van Duiven R.	12. Belin J. (G) 27. Corneillie V. 9. Gedikli E. 10. Hazard K. 26. Pirotte L. 23. Reynaerts S. 8. Ruiz Atil K.
Coaches
Johnson L.	Englebert G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
12', 1 - 0, Schoofs L. ⚽, Lopez L. (A),
17', 2 - 0, van Duiven J. ⚽, Seuntjens R. (A),
35', D'Ostilio J. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
50', 3 - 0, De Grand S. ⚽, Schoofs L. (A),
59', N'jo E. ↓, Hazard K. ↑,
59', Arslan A. ↓, Ruiz Atil K. ↑,
70', Lopez L. ↓, Vancsa Z. ↑,
71', van Duiven J. ↓, Salah M. ↑,
77', Seuntjens R. ↓, Rommens N. ↑,
79', De Sart A. ↓, Gedikli E. ↑,
84', Bustin J. ↓, Corneillie V. ↑,
85', Reyners T. ↓, van Duiven R. ↑,
88', Wasinski M. 🟨,
90+5', Ngawa P. 🟨,

Preview

First leg.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Lommel won 1.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

In this match, Lommel is seen as the favorite.

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Lommel won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 4 matches, and goals 6:8. (average 1:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Lommel won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 4:4. (average 1.3:1.3).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
9	Lommel SK	8	3	2	3	9:9	0	11

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Lommel SK
Belgian Challenger Pro League
17.04.26	Beerschot Wilrijk - Lommel	2:1 ✺
11.04.26	Lommel - Brugge U23	0:1 ✺
04.04.26	Lommel - RWDM Brussels	3:2 ✺
15.03.26	Lommel - Francs Borains	3:1 ✺
11.03.26	Gent U23 - Lommel	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.5 LLWWT
- RFC Liège
Belgian Challenger Pro League
17.04.26	RFC Liège - Eupen	2:1 ✺
12.04.26	Gent U23 - RFC Liège	0:2 ✺
05.04.26	RFC Liège - ROC de Charleroi-Marchienne	2:1 ✺
21.03.26	Beveren - RFC Liège	4:0 ✺
14.03.26	RFC Liège - Beerschot Wilrijk	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.6 WWWLL

Latest Head to Head

Belgian Challenger Pro League
27.01.26	RFC Liège - Lommel	1:0
28.09.25	Lommel - RFC Liège	0:1
26.01.25	Lommel - RFC Liège	0:2
04.10.24	RFC Liège - Lommel	1:1
02.03.24	Lommel - RFC Liège	4:1
01.10.23	RFC Liège - Lommel	2:1

Lommel - RFC Liège: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide