Match Info

SPAIN: TERCERA RFEF - GROUP 13 - ROUND 8

Date: 28 October 2023, Saturday


	Lorca Deportiva		Ciudad de Murcia

	1	X	2
	1.32	4.5	8
	1.33	4.18	6.44
	1.29	4.58	8.57
	1.29	4.7	8.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.31 ↓ (1.55)	4.49 ↑ (3.75)	7.95 ↑ (5.1)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 10.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lorca Deportiva
68.7%

Draw
20%

Ciudad de Murcia
11.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

58.2%

24.1%

17.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

59.2%

24.5%

17.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lorca Deportiva has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Lorca Deportiva's performance.

Ciudad de Murcia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Ciudad de Murcia might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lorca Deportiva than the current prediction. (-9.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Lorca Deportiva that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ciudad de Murcia than the current prediction. (+6.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Ciudad de Murcia could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

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Preview

One of which is a team leader another one is from mid-table (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Tercera RFEF ~ Group 13 (Play Offs: ) and 8).

Recent matches Lorca Deportiva is playing mutable (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Ciudad de Murcia is in a first-class shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Lorca Deportiva could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Lorca Deportiva is the unquestionable favorite.

Last 5 head-to-head matches Lorca Deportiva won 4 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 9-4.

Including matches at home between the teams Lorca Deportiva won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 3-1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CF Lorca Deportiva
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 13
22.10.23	Unión Molinense - Lorca Deportiva	2:0 ✺
12.10.23	Lorca Deportiva - Caravaca	2:0 ✺
08.10.23	Real Murcia B - Lorca Deportiva	1:3 ✺
01.10.23	UCAM Murcia B - Lorca Deportiva	1:0 ✺
24.09.23	Lorca Deportiva - Algar	5:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.5 LWWLW
- CAP Ciudad de Murcia
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 13
22.10.23	Ciudad de Murcia - UCAM Murcia B	1:0 ✺
15.10.23	Algar - Ciudad de Murcia	2:2 ✺
08.10.23	Ciudad de Murcia - Plus Ultra	5:1 ✺
30.09.23	Bullense - Ciudad de Murcia	1:2 ✺
Spanish Copa Federacion
27.09.23	San Roque de Lepe - Ciudad de Murcia	1:0 ET ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.8 WTWWL

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 13
05.03.23	Lorca Deportiva - Ciudad de Murcia	2:1
06.11.22	Ciudad de Murcia - Lorca Deportiva	0:2
06.02.22	Ciudad de Murcia - Lorca Deportiva	3:1
05.05.19	Ciudad de Murcia - Lorca Deportiva	0:3
16.12.18	Lorca Deportiva - Ciudad de Murcia	1:0

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