Match Info

SPAIN: Tercera RFEF - Group 13 - Round 24

Date: 16 April 2025, Wednesday

Location: Estadio Francisco Artés Carrasco (Lorca)


	Lorca Deportiva		Unión Molinense

	1	X	2
	1.87	3.2	3.6
	1.83	2.95	4.7
	1.85	3.01	4.68
	1.82	3.07	4.69	Watch
	1.8	3.05	4.65
	1.83	2.95	4.7
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.83 ↓ (2.03)	3.04 ↓ (3.3)	4.5 ↑ (3.35)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 8.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lorca Deportiva
49.7%

Draw
30%

Unión Molinense
20.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45%

27.7%

27.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

46.6%

26.7%

26.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lorca Deportiva has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.7%)

Unión Molinense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Unión Molinense might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lorca Deportiva than the current prediction. (-3.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Unión Molinense than the current prediction. (+6.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Unión Molinense could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Lorca Deportiva - Unión Molinense Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
45', 1 - 0, Carrasco A. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)

Preview

The most interesting match of the day. Two teams from the very top of the board will meet (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Tercera RFEF ~ Group 13 (Play Offs: )).

Lorca Deportiva in the latest game got a series victories and it is in a perfect shape (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Molinense is in a first-rate shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Lorca Deportiva will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 4 head-to-head matches Lorca Deportiva won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 4:4 (average 1:1).

Including matches at home between the teams Lorca Deportiva won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 4:1 (average 2:0.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CF Lorca Deportiva
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 13
12.04.25	Lorca Deportiva - Minerva	1:0 ✺
06.04.25	Muleño - Lorca Deportiva	0:2 ✺
30.03.25	Lorca Deportiva - El Palmar	1:0 ✺
22.03.25	Plus Ultra - Lorca Deportiva	0:3 ✺
16.03.25	Lorca Deportiva - Pulpileño	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.2 WWWWT
- Unión Molinense
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 13
12.04.25	Plus Ultra - Unión Molinense	0:1 ✺
06.04.25	Unión Molinense - Cieza	2:2 ✺
30.03.25	Pulpileño - Unión Molinense	2:1 ✺
23.03.25	Unión Molinense - Bullense	3:1 ✺
15.03.25	Águilas B - Unión Molinense	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.8 WTLWW

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 13
20.10.24	Unión Molinense - Lorca Deportiva	1:0
09.03.24	Lorca Deportiva - Unión Molinense	3:1
22.10.23	Unión Molinense - Lorca Deportiva	2:0
29.01.23	Lorca Deportiva - Unión Molinense	1:0

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