Match Info

Ligue 1 - Round 3

Date: 30 August 2025, Saturday

Location: Stade du Moustoir (Lorient)

Referee: Lissorgue R. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Lorient		Lille

	1	X	2
	3.2	3.6	2.15	Watch
	3.3	3.5	2.1
	3.25	3.55	2.18
	3.43	3.54	2.21
	40.00	16.76	1.01	Watch
	3.2	3.4	2.1
	3.4	3.63	2.24	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	8.54 ↑ (3.27)	5.43 ↑ (3.48)	2 ↓ (2.21)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 1.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lorient
14.6%

Draw
23%

Lille
62.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

29.2%

27.5%

43.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

29.3%

27.6%

43.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lorient has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-14.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Lorient's form might have worsened.

Lille has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+19.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Lille's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lorient than the current prediction. (+14.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Lorient, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lille than the current prediction. (-19.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Lille, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
30%	20%	50%

Lorient - Lille Predictions

Users Predictions: 20 users predict this event. Lorient will win (votes: 6 - 30%). Lille will win (votes: 10 - 50%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 20%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Lille: 28.1% – 71.9%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 7 Selected Experts predict this event. Lorient (votes: 1 - 14.3%). Lille (votes: 5 - 71.4%). Tie (votes: 1 - 14.3%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 5.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
21. Kamara B. (G) 25. Faye A. 3. Talbi M. 2. Igor Silva 77. Katseris P. 62. Avom A. 6. Abergel L. (C) 43. Kouassi A. 15. Tosin A. 28. Soumano S. 29. Karim D.	1. Ozer B. (G) 12. Meunier T. 3. Ngoy N. 4. Alexsandro 15. Perraud R. 32. Bouaddi A. 21. Andre B. (C) 14. Broholm M. 10. Haraldsson H. 27. Correia F. 7. Fernandez-Pardo M.
Substitutes
9. Bamba M. 8. Cadiou N. 11. Le Bris T. 1. Leroy B. (G) 17. Makengo J. 93. Mvuka Mugisha J. 97. Siba S. 44. Yongwa D.	6. Bentaleb N. 16. Bodart A. (G) 34. Burlet V. 43. Diaoune S. 38. Goffi A. 29. Igamane H. 2. Mandi A. 28. Raghouber U. 11. Sahraoui O.
Coaches
Pantaloni O.	Genesio B.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
15', Katseris P. ↓, Mvuka Mugisha J. ↑,
28', Avom A. 🟨,
37', Faye A. 🟨,
40', Fernandez-Pardo M. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 7)
46', Broholm M. ↓, Igamane H. ↑,
46', 0 - 1, Perraud R. ⚽, Correia F. (A),
53', 0 - 2, Fernandez-Pardo M. ⚽, Correia F. (A),
59', Andre B. 🟨,
64', Soumano S. (Pen),
64', 1 - 2, Tosin A. ⚽, Soumano S. (A),
68', Tosin A. ↓, Cadiou N. ↑,
68', Soumano S. ↓, Bamba M. ↑,
69', Perraud R. 🟨,
73', Abergel L. 🟨,
77', 1 - 3, Fernandez-Pardo M. ⚽,
80', 1 - 4, Igamane H. ⚽,
82', Avom A. ↓, Le Bris T. ↑,
82', Kouassi A. ↓, Yongwa D. ↑,
82', Correia F. ↓, Bentaleb N. ↑,
85', Fernandez-Pardo M. ↓, Sahraoui O. ↑,
85', Meunier T. ↓, Mandi A. ↑,
87', 1 - 5, Haraldsson H. ⚽, Perraud R. (A),
88', Bouaddi A. ↓, Raghouber U. ↑,
90+3', 1 - 6, Igamane H. ⚽, Andre B. (A),
90+5', 1 - 7, Sahraoui O. ⚽, Ozer B. (A),

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Lorient won 2.

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Recently, Lorient has had a series of away games.

Lille will hold a modest advantage in this match.

There will not play in Lorient: Adjei N. (Ankle Injury) Pagis P. (Calf Injury) Toure I. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Lille: Caillard M. (Elbow Injury) Gomes A. (Injury) Mbappe E. (Hamstring Injury) Mukau N. (Injury) Santos T. (Knee Injury) Toure O. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Lorient: Fadiga B. (Ankle Injury)

There are questionable in Lille: Sahraoui O. (Foot Injury)

In the last 19 head-to-head matches, Lorient won 7 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 12 matches, and goals 17:37. (average 0.9:1.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Lorient won 6 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 14:13. (average 1.4:1.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Lorient
French Ligue 1
24.08.25	Lorient - Rennes	4:0 ✺
17.08.25	Auxerre - Lorient	1:0 ✺
Club Friendly
09.08.25	Angers - Lorient	1:0 ✺
02.08.25	Swansea City - Lorient	1:3 ✺
26.07.25	Guingamp - Lorient	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.6 WLLWT
- OSC Lille
French Ligue 1
24.08.25	Lille - Monaco	1:0 ✺
17.08.25	Brest - Lille	3:3 ✺
Club Friendly
09.08.25	West Ham United - Lille	1:1 ✺
06.08.25	Lille - Venezia	3:0 ✺
02.08.25	Borussia Dortmund - Lille	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.2 WTTWL

Latest Head to Head

French Ligue 1
14.01.24	Lille - Lorient	3:0
27.08.23	Lorient - Lille	4:1
02.04.23	Lille - Lorient	3:1
02.10.22	Lorient - Lille	2:1
19.01.22	Lille - Lorient	3:1
10.09.21	Lorient - Lille	2:1
21.02.21	Lorient - Lille	1:4

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