Match Info

Ligue 1 - Round 7

Date: 17 October 2026, Saturday 🏁 Finished

Location: Stade Pierre-Mauroy (Villeneuve d'Ascq) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Turpin C. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Africa	—	StarTimes App, TV5 Monde Africa, TV5 Monde Maghreb-Orient
Albania	20:45	SuperSport 3
Argentina	15:45	Disney+
Armenia	22:45	Fast Sports 1, Setanta Sports 1
Asia	—	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 3, TOD, TV5 Monde Asia, TV5 Monde Pacifique
Austria	20:45	DAZN
Azerbaijan	22:45	Setanta Sports 1
Bosnia And Herzegovina	20:45	Arena Sport 4
Bulgaria	21:45	Diema Sport 3, Play Diema Xtra
Cambodia	01:45	MyTV
Canada	14:45	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports Espanol
Chile	15:45	Disney+
China	02:45	Migu
Colombia	13:45	Disney+
Croatia	20:45	Arena Sport 4, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	21:45	Cablenet Sports 2, Cablenet Sports 2
Czech Republic	20:45	Nova Sport 2, Oneplay
Denmark	20:45	Viaplay
Estonia	21:45	Go3 Extra Sports
Europe	—	Setanta Sports 1 Baltic, TV5 Monde Europe
Finland	21:45	Viaplay 2 Urheilu, Viaplay
France	20:45	DAZN France, Ligue 1+, Molotov TV
Georgia	22:45	Setanta Sports 1
Germany	20:45	DAZN Deutsch
Hong Kong	02:45	beIN Sports 3
Indonesia	01:45	Vidio
Israel	21:45	5 LIVE Israel
Italy	20:45	Ligue 1+
Japan	03:45	DAZN Japan
Kosovo	20:45	Arena Premium 2
Kyrgyzstan	00:45	Setanta Sports 1
Lithuania	21:45	Go3 Extra Sports
Mexico	12:45	FOX+, FOX One
Moldova	21:45	Setanta Sports 1
Netherlands	20:45	Viaplay
North Central America	—	Disney+ Caribbean
Norway	20:45	TV2 Play, Viaplay
Peru	13:45	Disney+
Philippines	02:45	Cignal Play
Poland	20:45	Eleven Sports 3
Romania	21:45	Voyo
Russia	21:45	Okko Prime
Serbia	20:45	Arena Premium 2
Slovakia	20:45	Nova Sport 2, Voyo
Slovenia	20:45	Arena Sport 1 Premium
South America	—	TV5 Monde Amerique Latine
South Korea	03:45	Coupang Play
Spain	20:45	DAZN Espana
Sweden	20:45	Viaplay, V Sport Fotbool
Switzerland	20:45	DAZN Switzerland
Tajikistan	23:45	Setanta Sports 1
Turkey	21:45	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 4, Digiturk
Turkmenistan	23:45	Setanta Sports 1
Ukraine	21:45	MEGOGO Futbol 4, MEGOGO Ukraine
United Kingdom	19:45	Ligue 1+
Uruguay	15:45	Disney+
Usa	14:45	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports US Espanol, TV5 Monde
Uzbekistan	23:45	Setanta Sports 1
Venezuela	14:45	Disney+
Vietnam	01:45	ON Plus
International	18:45	OneFootball TV


	Lille		Brest

	1	X	2
	2.15	3.40	3.25	Watch
	2.10	3.60	3.25
	2.05	3.60	3.25	Watch
	2.22	3.55	3.45
	2.02	3.75	3.43	Watch
	2.20	3.50	3.35
	2.12	3.48	3.54	Watch
	2.12	3.65	3.40
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.12 ↑ (1.66)	3.57 ↓ (4.11)	3.37 ↓ (4.7)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lille
44.9%

Draw
26.7%

Brest
28.3%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

56.9%

23%

20.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

58.1%

22.4%

19.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lille has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-12%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Lille's form might have worsened.

Brest has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Brest's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lille than the current prediction. (+13.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Lille, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Brest than the current prediction. (-8.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Brest, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
87.5%	3.1%	9.4%

Lille - Brest Predictions

New Consensus by Tipsters:

1X2 - Lille (2.05) (votes: 96%) ⭐ Best Value.

Users Predictions: Lille will win (28 of 32 users predict this - 87.5%).
Confidence interval (95%): 76.04% – 98.96%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Lille will win (3 of 3 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Gill O. (G) 38. Goffi A. 3. Ngoy N. 23. Nianzou T. 15. Perraud R. 21. Andre B. (C) 17. Mukau N. 8. Mbappe E. 10. Haraldsson H. 7. Bakwa D. 9. Giroud O.	1. Selvik E. (G) 70. Lala K. 29. Tousart L. 4. Lloris G. 2. Locko B. 13. Chotard J. 8. Magnetti H. (C) 17. Balde M. 23. Doumbia K. 9. Mboup P. 19. Ajorque L.
Substitutes
6. Bentaleb N. 26. Cossier I. 35. Diaoune S. 14. Kjaergaard M. 40. Lanssade Z. (G) 19. Onal B. 28. Perrin G. 24. Verdonk C. 33. Yondjo A.	18. Bourgault J. 6. Diambou M. 21. Kante I. Y. 33. Monchatre E. 39. N'Guessan D. 7. Nonge J. 30. Patouillet M. (G) 20. Zogbe L.
Coaches
Ancelotti D.	Lachuer J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
6', 0 - 1, Balde M. ⚽, Lloris G. (A),
13', Doumbia K. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Balde M. ↓, Nonge J. ↑,
54', Perraud R. ↓, Verdonk C. ↑,
58', Locko B. 🟨,
64', 1 - 1, Giroud O. (Penalty Awarded),
65', Andre B. ↓, Bentaleb N. ↑,
65', Bakwa D. ↓, Diaoune S. ↑,
77', Mboup P. ↓, Kante I. Y. ↑,
77', Mukau N. ↓, Kjaergaard M. ↑,
82', Doumbia K. ↓, Diambou M. ↑,
90', Verdonk C. 🟨,

Preview

This match features a clash between a top-table contender and a mid-table team (ranked 2nd in the Promotion - Champions League League phase and 8th).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Lille won 1.

Both teams have shown inconsistent performances in recent matches.

Brest could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

Lille is expected to hold a slight competitive edge in this match.

Confirmed absences for Lille: Igamane H. (Knee Injury) Santos T. (Knee Injury) Ueda A. (Foot Injury).

Confirmed absences for Brest: Chardonnet B. (Calf Injury) Edjouma N. (Loan agreement) Le Guen R. (Broken Leg) Versini G. (Leg Injury).

In the last 18 head-to-head meetings, Lille has recorded 6 wins, 7 draws, and 5 losses, with a goal aggregate of 20:21 (averaging 1.1:1.2 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Lille against this opponent, the record stands at 5 wins, 3 draws, and 1 loss, with 11:6 goals (averaging 1.2:0.7 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Lille	8	4	3	1	11:6	5	15
13	Brest	8	2	3	3	14:12	2	9

Outrights of French Ligue 1 for now

Lille: 3.71% Brest: 0.24%

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- OSC Lille
UEFA Champions League
13.10.26	Arsenal - Lille	3:0 ✺
French Ligue 1
10.10.26	Lille - Le Havre	1:0 ✺
20.09.26	Nice - Lille	2:1 ✺
13.09.26	Lille - Troyes	2:0 ✺
UEFA Champions League
08.09.26	Lille - Betis	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.9 LWLWL
- Stade Brestois 29
French Ligue 1
10.10.26	Brest - Angers	5:1 ✺
Club Friendly
03.10.26	Brest - Monza	2:2 ✺
French Ligue 1
20.09.26	Auxerre - Brest	2:1 ✺
13.09.26	Brest - Paris Saint-Germain	0:1 ✺
05.09.26	Le Havre - Brest	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.1 WTLLW

Latest Head to Head

French Ligue 1
14.02.26	Lille - Brest	1:1
17.08.25	Brest - Lille	3:3
10.05.25	Brest - Lille	2:0
06.12.24	Lille - Brest	3:1
17.03.24	Brest - Lille	1:1
22.10.23	Lille - Brest	1:0
24.02.23	Lille - Brest	2:1

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