Match Info

Ligue 1 - Round 4

Date: 12 September 2026, Saturday

Location: Stade du Moustoir (Lorient)

Referee: Petit A. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 6, TOD
Austria	DAZN
Chile	Disney+
China	Migu
Colombia	Disney+
Croatia	Arena Sport 7, MAXtv To Go
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 2, Oneplay
Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	Viaplay
France	DAZN France, Ligue 1+, Molotov TV
Germany	DAZN Deutsch
Hong-kong	beIN SPORTS MAX
Indonesia	Vidio
Italy	Ligue 1+
Japan	DAZN Japan
Mexico	Disney+, FOX One
Netherlands	Viaplay
North-central-america	Disney+ Caribbean
Norway	Viaplay
Peru	Disney+
Romania	Voyo
Serbia	Arena Sport 7
Slovakia	Nova Sport 2, Voyo
South-korea	Coupang Play
Sweden	Viaplay
Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland
Turkey	beIN Connect
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 6, MEGOGO Ukraine
United-kingdom	Ligue 1+
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	SportsEngine Play
Venezuela	Disney+
World	OneFootball TV


	Lorient		Toulouse

	1	X	2
	2.30	3.30	3.10	Watch
	2.37	3.30	2.95
	2.38	3.25	2.88	Watch
	2.44	3.35	3.20
	2.42	3.39	2.9	Watch
	2.35	3.30	3.15
	2.34	3.36	3.16	Watch
	2.43	3.40	3.05
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.38 ↓ (2.61)	3.33 ↑ (3.26)	3.05 ↑ (2.74)

The most likely Over/Under: 6.75

The best margin for this event is 2.1%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Lorient
40.1%

Draw
28.6%

Toulouse
31.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36.3%

29.1%

34.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36%

29.3%

34.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lorient has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.8%)

Toulouse has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lorient than the current prediction. (-4.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Toulouse than the current prediction. (+3.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
40%	45%	15%

Lorient - Toulouse Predictions

Users Predictions: 20 users predict this event. Lorient will win (votes: 8 - 40%). Toulouse will win (votes: 3 - 15%). It will Tie (votes: 9 - 45%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 23.2% – 66.8%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - under (1.97) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
38. Mvogo Y. (G) 20. Sylla D. 3. Talbi M. (C) 32. Adjei N. 77. Katseris P. 8. Cadiou N. 72. Mbamba N. 43. Kouassi A. 33. Bernardeau G. 17. Makengo J. 18. Balde I.	60. Niflore M. (G) 22. Messali R. 5. Koumbassa S. 3. McKenzie M. 12. Tape C. 31. Schmidt N. 23. Casseres C. (C) 9. Hidalgo S. 8. Jorgensen T. 37. Azizi I. 13. Russell-Rowe J.
Substitutes
62. Avom A. 19. Faye S. 2. Georgen A. 10. Jensen I. 21. Kamara B. (G) 42. Kone M. 11. Le Bris T. 55. Obaretin N. 15. Tosin A.	18. Amougou M. 1. Collin T. (G) 94. Diallo I. 19. Odogu D. 11. Oppong S. 14. Sigur N. 20. Tengstedt C. 7. Vignolo J. 6. Vossah A.
Coaches
Dujeux A.	Askou J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
17', Katseris P. 🟨,
37', 1 - 0, Balde I. ⚽, Katseris P. (A),
39', 2 - 0, Mbamba N. ⚽, Katseris P. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 2)
46', Messali R. ↓, Sigur N. ↑,
46', Hidalgo S. ↓, Tengstedt C. ↑,
48', 2 - 1, Tengstedt C. ⚽, Casseres C. (A),
58', Katseris P. ↓, Le Bris T. ↑,
58', Bernardeau G. ↓, Jensen I. ↑,
67', Azizi I. ↓, Oppong S. ↑,
69', 2 - 2, Jorgensen T. ⚽, Casseres C. (A),
70', Balde I. ↓, Kone M. ↑,
70', Mbamba N. ↓, Avom A. ↑,
85', Schmidt N. ↓, Vossah A. ↑,
85', Tape C. ↓, Diallo I. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Lorient won 0.

Recent performances by Lorient have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Toulouse is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Lorient may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

In the last 18 head-to-head matches, Lorient won 5 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 20:23. (average 1.1:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Lorient won 1 match, drew 3 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 6:10. (average 0.8:1.3).

Outrights of French Ligue 1 for now

Toulouse: 0.43% Lorient: 0.35%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
12	Lorient	5	1	2	2	5:6	-1	5
13	Toulouse	5	1	2	2	7:9	-2	5

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Lorient
French Ligue 1
05.09.26	Lens - Lorient	0:1 ✺
29.08.26	Lorient - Troyes	1:2 ✺
22.08.26	Nice - Lorient	0:0 ✺
Club Friendly
15.08.26	Elversberg - Lorient	4:1 ✺
04.08.26	Lorient - UNFP	5:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.1 WLTLW
- Toulouse FC
French Ligue 1
03.09.26	Toulouse - Lille	0:1 ✺
29.08.26	Brest - Toulouse	2:2 ✺
22.08.26	Toulouse - Lyon	0:2 ✺
Club Friendly
15.08.26	Toulouse - Hamburger SV	1:2 ✺
05.08.26	Al Ain - Toulouse	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.1 LTLLW

Latest Head to Head

French Ligue 1
21.03.26	Toulouse - Lorient	1:0
09.11.25	Lorient - Toulouse	1:1
28.04.24	Lorient - Toulouse	1:2
03.12.23	Toulouse - Lorient	1:1
23.04.23	Lorient - Toulouse	0:1
21.08.22	Toulouse - Lorient	2:2
French Coupe de la Ligue
31.10.18	Toulouse - Lorient	0:1

Upcoming Matches